& #noiOnDemand Pilar Weiss TODAY’S PRESENTER Civic Engagement Director New Organizing Institute
& #noiOnDemand OBJECTIVE Today’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.
& #noiOnDemand AGENDA Introduction Basic Terms Building Universes Capacity, Capacity, Capacity… Instituting a Timeline Making Adjustments Q&A
& #noiOnDemand GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote. Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day. Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave. SOME BASIC TERMS
& #noiOnDemand Different vote goals for different kinds of campaigns –Candidates – 50% + 1 –Ballot Initiatives – different states/localities, different laws –Campaigns Specific geography Increasing turnout in a specific community or demographic SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL
& Building power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win: –Increasing turnout of a specific demographic –Taking responsibility for a specific region, neighborhood, set of precincts Increasing civic engagement in a community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics! What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill? SETTING A NON-CANDIDATE VOTE GOAL
& #noiOnDemand BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE MODELING PARTISANSHIP DEMOGRAPHICS ID/SUPPORT VOTE HISTORY
& #noiOnDemand SUPPORT AGAINSTUNKNOWNSUPPORTER VOTE HISTORY FREQUENT Opponents who always vote Persuadables who always vote Supporters who always vote SPORADIC Opponents who sometimes vote Persuadables who sometimes vote Supporters who sometimes vote NEVER Opponents who never vote Persuadables who never vote Supporters who never vote NEW Newly registered opponents Newly registered persuadables Newly registered supporters TARGETING MATRIX
& #noiOnDemand HOW DO WE GET TO OUR VOTE GOAL? Identify our vote deficit Identify how we’re going to contact voters When do we transition from an ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase? How many GOTV passes will we make to get to our vote goal?
& #noiOnDemand Having a baseline for contact rates –Phones – 10-20% –Canvass – 25-35% Test contact rates – they’ll differ by geography, time of day, list quality. CONTACT RATES
& #noiOnDemand Phases –Transition from persuasion to GOTV –Establishing # of GOTV passes –Calculating a timeline for each phase based on contact rate & capacity Recognizing the role of Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail. Calculating ramp up & escalation in each phase, including key benchmarks. BUILDING A TIMELINE
& #noiOnDemand TIMELINE Final ID/Target Universe Initial GOTV Pass Additional GOTV Passes Early Vote/ VBM Election Day
& It happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase! Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate Assess reality of shift length and shift production Volunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule MAKING ADJUSTMENTS