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SLEEPWALKING WITH THE BOMB Why we are sleepwalking towards nuclear catastrophe, and how we can minimize that growing prospect 4/22/13Copyright John C.

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Presentation on theme: "SLEEPWALKING WITH THE BOMB Why we are sleepwalking towards nuclear catastrophe, and how we can minimize that growing prospect 4/22/13Copyright John C."— Presentation transcript:

1 SLEEPWALKING WITH THE BOMB Why we are sleepwalking towards nuclear catastrophe, and how we can minimize that growing prospect 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

2 WHY THIS BOOK NOW? “UNTHINKABLE”?: THINK TRILLION $ RED INK TOP-VIEW HISTORY OF NUCLEAR AGE STUDIES: FAMILIAR FACES, PLACES & CASES LESSONS LEARNED CAN GUIDE N-POLICY 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

3 THE RUSH TO NUCLEAR ZERO HERMAN KAHN’s “CLANDESTINE CACHE” “SETTING AN EXAMPLE” FALLACY NON-NUCLEAR SUBSTITUTE DETERRENCE HOSTILE PROLIFERATORS: CH, NK, PAK, IRAN 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

4 FROM “TRINITY” TO TEHRAN ALL-OUT ARMS RACE: ARMS CONTROL PRIMACY: FASTER PROLIFERATION: TODAY 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

5 ALL-OUT ARMS RACE: TECHNOLOGY BREAKOUT: 1945 – st STRIKE VULNERABILITY: /22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

6 ARMS CONTROL PRIMACY: ARMS CONTROL SEPARATE: 1968 – 1979 ARMS CONTROL “LINKAGE”: 1980 – /22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

7 FASTER PROLIFERATION: TODAY ROGUE BREAKOUT: 1993 – 2001 THREAT BREAKOUT: TODAY 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

8 USSR/RUSSIA: LINKAGE RACE FOR THE “SUPER” “CRISIS STABILITY” & “DELICATE BALANCE” N-GAMBLE: BERLIN, CUBAN MISSILE CRISES LESSON: CANNOT WALL-OFF ARMS CONTROL 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

9 US: AGREEMENTS WITH BAD ACTORS CRISIS AGREMENTS: HOT-LINE “MAD” AGREEMENTS: SALT SHAKERS CHEAT INF & START/NEW: DEEP CUTS/NUNN-LUGAR LESSON: GENUINE COMMON INTEREST ONLY 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

10 IRAN: NEXT CUBAN MISILE CRISIS KENNEDY, KHRUSHCHEV & CASTRO IRAN’s “BREAKOUT” OPTION PRINCE TURKI’s POST-IRAN ARMS RACE LESSON: MUST END REVOLUTIONARY REGIME 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

11 NORTH KOREA: “DYING STING” DEAN RUSK’s TRAGIC LINE-DRAWING ARTILLERY: SEOUL HELD HOSTAGE NUKES: ASIA, US HELD HOSTAGE LESSON: NUKES = SURVIVAL INSURANCE 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

12 CHINA: YOM KIPPUR ‘73 AGAIN? PRC NUKES: MINIMUM DETERRENCE, NOT WESTERN PACIFIC: “AREA DENIAL” & 1973 “MIRROR-IMAGING” PERIL: USSR, PRC PRC “UNDERGROUND GREAT WALL”: WHY? LESSON: NUCLEAR BALANCE CAN MATTER 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

13 INDO-PAK SUBCONTINENT IKE’s & A. GOLDBERG’s “ATOMS/PEACE” FOLLY INDIA: “BUDDHA SMILES” DECEPTION PAKISTAN: A. Q. KHAN PURLOINED PROGRAM LESSON: COMMERCIAL = ALMOST THE BOMB 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

14 PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC I URANIUM ORE = 99.3% U-238 & 0.7% U ATOMS ORE = 139 U U-235 U-238 “FISSIONABLE”; U-235 “FISSILE” “BOMB” = “DEVICE” OR “WEAPON” 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

15 PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC II LEU = 3.5% ENRICHED; COMMERCIAL POWER MEU = 20% ENRICHED; MEDICAL RESEARCH HEU = 93% ENRICHED; FUELS NUCLEAR BOMB YIELD: HIROSHIMA = 14KT; NAGASAKI = 21KT YIELD: WTC ‘93 2/3T; WTC 9/11/2001 = 0.1KT 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

16 PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC III 140 ATOMS ORE = 139 U U-235 REMOVE 112 U-238 = 27 U-238 – 1 U235 (LEU) REMOVE 23 U-238 = 4 U U-235 (MEU) REMOVE 4 U-238 = 1 U-235 (100% HEU) MILITARY WEAPONS-GRADE HEU = 93% U-235 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

17 PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC IV SEPARATE: U-235 ISOTOPE; P-239 CHEMICAL URANIUM MATERIALS RULE: URANIUM ENRICHMENT TIME RULE: “N-YIELD CURVE” RULE: /22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

18 PROLIFERATION ARTIHMETIC V CRUDE URANIUM BOMB: 60 KG U-235 HEU WELL-DESIGNED URANIUM BOMB: 15 KG HEU DESIGNER PLUTONIUM BOMB: 6 KG P-239 TERROR DEVICE: 1% HIROSHIMA = 200 WTC I 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

19 PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC VI U-235 BOMB: GUN TRIGGER – EASY P-239 BOMB: IMPLOSION TRIGGER - HARD P-239: SUPER-SPEED, -SMALL, -SYMMETRY POST-9/11 THREAT FOCUS: CRUDE A-DEVICE 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

20 IRAQ: WMD NON-INTEL GULF WAR: CLOSER THAN WE THOUGHT IRAQI FREEDOM: THE OPPOSITE MISTAKE PEARL HARBOR: 1932 WAR GAME & 1941 REAL WAR “MILLENIUM CHALLENGE” 2002: “UNFAIR” TACTICS NORTH KOREA: 2002 VERBAL BOAST & 2006 ACTUAL TEST LESSON: INTEL CANNOT RELIABLY INFORM 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

21 ALLY PROLIFERATION USSR (WW-II ALLY): STALIN’s SECRET UK: PRIME USSR TARGET UNTIL 1960s FRANCE: PARIS, NEW YORK, MOSCOW CHINA: MAO, KOREA & SINO-SOVIET SPLIT LESSON: SUPERPOWER UMBRELLAS LEAK 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

22 STAMPEDING DISARMAMENT “CASTLE BRAVO” TO “TSAR BOMBA”: ’54 - ’61 TEST BANS: 1963 (WHERE) & 1974 (YIELD) “NEUTRON BOMB” TO NUKE FREEZE: ‘78 – ’83 TEST MORATORIA: ROGUES IGNORE LESSON: WESTERN GOV’TS MUST MAKE CASE 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

23 DISARMERS: VOLUNTARY & INVOL. UKRAINE, BELARUS, KHAZAKHSTAN: FREEDOM BRAZIL, ARGENTINA: ECONOMICS SOUTH AFRICA: END ISOLATION LIBYA: “SHOCK & AWE” IRAQ 1981 & SYRIA 2007: ISRAEL MILITARY PREVENTION LESSON: NEGOTIATIONS WON’T STOP ROGUES 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

24 EMP: SMALL POWER ACE-IN-HOLE E1, E2, E3: FRY SYSTEM ELECTRONICS WORST CASE: US RETURNS TO 1875 IRAN: ‘98 EMP-MODE BARGE MISSILE LAUNCH POWER GRID REMEDIATION: CHEAP INSURANCE LESSON: NO SINGLE-/LOW PT. MEGA-RISKS 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013

25 WAKING UP “MAD”: DECLARATORY, NOT ACTUAL POLICY ZERO: “REACH FOR THE STARS” FANTASIES APOCALYPTIC TRINITY: KILL US/THEM, QUIT LESSON: NUCLEAR POLICY ALWAYS DEFENSIVE 4/22/13Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013


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