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Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather. A1: Water and low carbon energy technology A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification A3: Climate change.

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Presentation on theme: "Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather. A1: Water and low carbon energy technology A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification A3: Climate change."— Presentation transcript:

1 Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather

2 A1: Water and low carbon energy technology A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification A3: Climate change and extreme events A3.1: Drought A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison) A3.3 Implications of force majuere A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2) I1: CO 2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV I2: Energy impacts of water desalination I3: CC and air quality interaction I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM 2

3 A1: Water and low carbon energy technology A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification. A3: Climate change and extreme events A3.1: Drought A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison) A3.3 Implications of force majuere A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2) I1: CO 2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV I2: Energy impacts of water desalination I3: CC and air quality interaction I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts. S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM. S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM. I’ll say just a word about Iris’ work on this. Then I will elaborate on this and say a bit more about our recent workshop. 3

4 4 Southwest US drought variability: Cold vs warm Pacific Polar Jet Stream Wet L Warm Pacific Jet Stream Warm East Pacific: El Niño or PDO+ phase Blocking high pressure H Cold Polar Jet Stream Variable/weaker Pacific Jet Stream Wet Dry Warm Cold East Pacific: La Niña or PDO- phase

5 To investigate variability in precipitation with the PDO, Iris has focused on Arizona and New Mexico. The impact of the PDO on precipitation varies with other climate patterns: ENSO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the PNA. A clear distinction of the PDO signal in rainfall data may be hindered by the changing role of the PDO over the course of the year. Precipitation during winter and the Moonsoon season depend on very different processes that are differently impacted by the PDO. Considering these factors, she has done a drought projection for the next two decades. 5

6 The impacts for the current negative PDO phase are projected to be 1.6 times as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. This means that if future impacts of the PDO on precipitation are comparable to past impacts, the effect of the current negative PDO will at least double the expected impacts of global warming until The projected precipitation impacts of the combination of a negative PDO phase with a positive AMO phase are about twice as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. 6

7 7 S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM August 2011: Second multi- university summer study program for graduate students and other young investigators held at Banff Jan 2011 January 2011: La Jolla IGBP workshop on ecosystem impacts of geoengineering Paper now in press at AMBIO June 2011: Lima IPCC expert meeting on geoengineering October 2011: BPC report on U.S. research March 2011: SRMGI Kavli Center Jan 2012 SRMGI 7

8 S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM 8


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