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© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Extremes in the UK: The impacts for business Professor Stephen Belcher Head of Met Office Hadley Centre
© Crown copyright Met Office Is the world warming? Changes in the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean show unequivocally that the world is warming Is it due to human activity? It is extremely likely (95% certainty) that human influence is responsible for more than half of the warming since 1950 It is extremely likely (95% certainty) that human influence is responsible for more than half of the warming since 1950 What does it mean for us in the UK? What can we say about climate events in UK? The climate is changing
© Crown copyright Met Office UK Extremes: Too hot UKCP09: On average summers become hotter & drier Heat waves in large parts of Europe are likely to have increased since 1950 Climate change doubled risk of temperatures seen in Europe in 2003 Continuing on track for 2003 to be norm in Europe by 2040s Met Office Summer 2003 Temperatures NASA Summer 2003 Impacts: 2,000 excess UK deaths Strain on infrastructure Crop failure and livestock death Transport network disruption Closure of nuclear power plants Increased UK tourism
© Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09: On average winters warmer and wetter But, large natural fluctuations in UK climate: location of jetstream 20-30% chance of cold winters until 2020s Need to adapt to broader envelope More warm winters but natural variability means still have cold winters Winter 2010/11 Impacts: Strain on emergency services Transport networks and utilities impacted Closure of Heathrow for 2 days Retail industry affected Reduced GDP by ~0.5% UK Extremes: Too cold
© Crown copyright Met Office Expect more intense rainfall Human influence on heavier rainfall has been detected around world Evidence that heavy downpours increase more rapidly in warmer temperatures Large natural fluctuations in UK summer rainfall accumulation 35% chance of wet summer until 2040s Wet summers continue due to climate natural variability Winter 2013/14 Impacts: 6000 properties flooded Transport networks disrupted Agriculture and livestock impacted Coastal erosion Power losses UK Extremes: Too wet
© Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09: On average summers hotter and drier No clear evidence of climate change on dry seasons in the UK UK experiences impacts through economic and trade links: Texas heat wave Hotter, drier summers UK Extremes: Too dry
© Crown copyright Met Office Total CO ₂ emissions are strongly linked to total global mean warming Total CO ₂ emissions to 2011 are in range 460- 630 GtC If warming to be limited to 2˚C, total emissions need to be limited to ~1000Gte About half of this was emitted by 2011 Met Office, based on SPM10: AR5 WGI
© Crown copyright Met Office Impacts 1.Risks from some extreme events will increase with climate change: heat waves, extreme precipitation, coastal flooding 2.Climate change is already having an impact on the natural world and we expect those impacts to become greater in the future 3.People around the world can take action to reduce some of the risks from these impacts 4.Emissions of GHGs have increased and we’re committed to some further warming, but reducing GHG emissions now will substantially reduce the risks of climate change later this century Ecosystem services Agriculture Fisheries Livestock Retail Manufacturing Tourism Forestry Insurance
© Crown copyright Met Office Summary Climate is changingClimate is changing Probability of some extreme events increasesProbability of some extreme events increases Heat waves, heavy rainfall events, coastal floodingHeat waves, heavy rainfall events, coastal flooding Must be seen in context of UK’s natural variability:Must be seen in context of UK’s natural variability: Multi-decadal variability in summer rainfallMulti-decadal variability in summer rainfall Oscillations in winter jet stream position: keep cold wintersOscillations in winter jet stream position: keep cold winters Need to be resilient to broader range of conditionsNeed to be resilient to broader range of conditions Climate Services to help detect vulnerability and plan resilienceClimate Services to help detect vulnerability and plan resilience “The Met Office Hadley Centre…represents a critical national capability with a central role of meeting the Government’s requirements for climate evidence and advice” Sir John Beddington GCSA
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