1. Climate Change: Science and Modeling John Paul Gonzales Project GUTS Teacher PD 6 January 2011

2. Important Concepts  “Climate” vs. “Weather”

3. Important Concepts  “Climate” vs. “Weather”  Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover.

4. Important Concepts  “Climate” vs. “Weather”  Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover.  Climate: Long term regional trends of weather patterns measured in decades or even centuries. Average statistics of heat, rainfall, humidity.

5. Important Concepts  “Climate” vs. “Weather” “Climate is what you pack for. Weather is what you wear that day.”

6. Important Concepts  “Climate” vs. “Weather” “Climate is what you pack for. Weather is what you wear that day.”

7. Important Concepts

9. Climate Stability and Climate Change

10. Like weather, climate changes over time

11. Climate Stability and Climate Change Like weather, climate changes over time:

12. The period between 1990 and today has been the warmest period in the global temperature record, collected since the mid-1800s The difference between past climate change and the climate change we are experiencing now is that according to the IPCC “it [is] very likely (meaning more than 90% likely) that most of the warming is anthropogenic or human-induced.” We know that global climate change is occurring now as well: Climate Stability and Climate Change

13. Like weather, climate changes over time

15. Evidence for current Climate Change: 1) Carbon dioxide levels and levels of other greenhouse gases have been rising for at least 50 years. Climate Stability and Climate Change

16. 2) Carbon from fossil fuels is being added to the atmosphere. 3) Evidence from ice cores show a very strong correlation between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures Climate Stability and Climate Change

17. 4) The greenhouse effect is not in dispute. 5) The Earth’s surface temperature has increased sharply in recent years. Climate Stability and Climate Change

18. Impact of Climate Change

20. Various impacts of climate change are projected such as: Changes in surface temperature Changes in precipitation and Sea level changes Impact of Climate Change

21. Scientists predict more severe weather, such as storms, floods, or droughts. increases in precipitation are very likely in polar regions increases in droughts are likely in subtropical and tropical regions. Low-lying island nations will be threatened by rising sea levels. Extreme weather events, such as floods and hurricanes, are predicted to become more common.

22. Impact of Climate Change Biological effects of climate change are already noticeable: Some plants are blooming earlier in the Spring. There have been shifts in the ranges of species 20 – 30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction.

23. Impact of Climate Change A small amount of global warming (up to 3 ºC) would be favorable for global food production But a greater than 3 ºC temperature increase would have a negative effect overall. In arid and tropical regions (such as New Mexico), even a small increase in average temperature is expected to decrease crop productivity.

24. Climate as a Complex System

26.  A system with many different variables.

27. Climate as a Complex System  A system with many different variables.  Heat  Moisture  Pressure  Greenhouse Gases  Albedo

28. Climate as a Complex System  A system with many different variables.

29. Climate as a Complex System  A system with many different variables.  A system with feedback loops.

30. Climate as a Complex System  A system with many different variables.  A system with feedback loops. Inputs Outputs

31. Climate as a Complex System Less Snow and Ice More sunlight absorbed by land and sea Water Temperatures

32. Climate as a Complex System

33. Climate Modeling

34.  Abstract The Problem

35. Climate Modeling  Abstract The Problem  Variables: Temperature Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents

36. Climate Modeling  Abstract The Problem  Variables: Temperature Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents

37. Climate Modeling Variables  Abstract The Problem  Variables: Temperature Moisture Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents

38. Climate Modeling Variables

39. Climate Modeling

41.  http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003200/a003229/inde x.html http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003200/a003229/inde x.html