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Terrorism Threat Assessment For Megaports Initiative.

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Presentation on theme: "Terrorism Threat Assessment For Megaports Initiative."— Presentation transcript:

1 Terrorism Threat Assessment For Megaports Initiative

2 Presentation Structure Terrorist Attacks and Characteristics Rationality of Concern Incidents of Interest Threat and Modus Operandi Profile

3 Terrorist Tactics Aerial – Maritime - Ground attack

4 Aircraft as guided missile (11 Sep 2001)

5 SuperFerry14 Bombing off Manila bay (27 Feb 2004)

6 Truck Bomb JW Marriott Islamabad (20 Sep 2008)

7 Characteristics of Contemporary attack Indiscriminate targeting civilian victims Mass casualty Lethal weapons (including CBRN)

8 What is Terrorism? Politically motivated violence or threat of violence designed to coerce others into actions or to refrain from actions But..

9 What is Terrorism? No consensus on its definition Still.. There are.. 3 International Conventions mentioned terrorist/terrorism

10 International Convention International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings (1997) International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (1999) International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (2005)

11 Rationality of Concern International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism (2005) Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment. Director of National Intelligence USA (12 Feb 2009) Strategy for Countering International Terrorism. UK (March 2009)

12 International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism (2005) acts of terrorism - possess/use (radioactive material, device) unlawfully and intentionally - to cause death/ serious bodily injury - to cause substantial damage to property/ environment - to compel person/international organization/ state to do or refrain from doing an act - accomplice/ organize/ direct

13 Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment The terrorist CBRN threat …we will continue to face a substantial threat.. from terrorists attempting to acquire biological, chemical, and possibly nuclear weapons and use them to conduct large- scale attacks

14 Strategy for Countering International Terrorism Contemporary terrorist organizations aspire to use chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons. Changing technology and the theft and smuggling...make this aspiration more realistic...


16 Opportunity Capability Motivation Terrorist attack occur if: Threat Vulnerability Risk


18 Threat Feeling of unsafe or danger (individual and strategic dimension) Intention to take a hostile or launch attack against a specific target

19 Vulnerability Characteristics of a target which could be exploited in an attack

20 Risk The probability that an attack will be attempted and will be successful


22 Al-Qaida Established around 1988 Usama Bin Ladin (UBL) and Ayman al Zawahiri are core leaders Fatwa (Feb 98) World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders saying it was the duty of all Muslims to kill US citizens civilian or militaryand their allies everywhere Fatwa (Feb 98) World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders saying it was the duty of all Muslims to kill US citizens civilian or militaryand their allies everywhere

23 Al-Qaida The first transnational group to support the use of CBRN weapons against civilian targets and to try to use them UBL interviewed by Al Jazeera in there is a duty on Muslims to acquire them...

24 Incidents of Interest Ahmed Ressum, an Algerian accused of planning to bomb the LA airport, arrested at Port Angeles on 14 Dec 1999 Testified that AQ taught to poison people by putting toxins on doorknobs

25 Incidents of Interest Yazid Sufaat, Malaysian JI (Al Jemaah Al Islamiyah) member, arrested 9 Dec 2001 Believed to be one of AQ's anthrax researchers Released 10 Dec 2008

26 Incidents of Interest In August 2002, CNN released videotape recording AQ chemical experiment involving dogs that were exposed to vapors from a white liquid

27 Incidents of Interest Jose Abdullah al Muhajir, arrested 8 May 2002, alleged to develop and use a dirty bomb Sentenced to 17 years and 4 months in prison (Jan 2008)

28 Incidents of Interest Dhiren Barot, arrested Aug 2004, pleaded guilty of planning to murder people using a dirty bomb Sentenced to life in prison (Nov 2006)

29 Incidents of Interest Narong Penanam, a Thai school principal from NE province of Surin, arrested 13 Jun 2003, accused of trying to sell Cesium-137 An example of illicit trafficking

30 Incidents of Interest In April 2004, Chemical attack targeting Jordanian GID was thwarted. AQI-Abu Musab al-Zarqawi planned to use suicide truck-bomb loaded with 30 tons of chemical explosive.

31 Threat Level of Attack Low - unlikely Moderate - possible Substantial - strong Severe - highly likely Critical - expected imminently

32 Radiological IEDs Improvised conventional explosives with radioactive materials Nine radioactive materials: americium- 241, californium-252, cesium-137, cobalt- 60, iridium-192, plutonium-238, polonium-210, radium-226, strontium-90

33 Radiological IEDs Considered high-tech weapon Radiation exposure is something we cant see or feel, thus it becomes unknown source of danger

34 Vulnerabilities & Risks: A case of International Cooperation Telecommunication and high technology equipments private company (in Thailand), joint venture with Ministry of Postal Service (in N.Korea), Purchased (early March 2003) three sets of stabilized direct current power supply from producer (in Japan)

35 Vulnerabilities & Risks: A case of International Cooperation Custom Service (in Hong Kong) seized subjects (9 Apr 2003) upon request from Japanese counterpart, Enroute (3 Apr 2003) from Kobe via Hong Kong, and expected to arrive Laem Chabang port (11 Apr 2003)

36 Vulnerabilities & Risks Aspiration Radioactive material could be obtained by stealing/ smuggling or buying (legal or illegal channels Cover / front organization False documentation

37 Vulnerabilities & Risks Small ports or on the road Concealment to offset detection Lack of security Cyberspace information Extremists infiltration

38 End of Presentation THANK YOU

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