1. Terrorism Risk Analysis: An Overview and a Dirty Bomb Example R educing the Risks and Consequences of Terrorism CREATE Conference November 18, 2004 Detlof von Winterfeldt School of Policy Planning and Development University of Southern California

2. Center Research and Analysis Areas Risk Analysis Consequence Assessment Emergency Response Models Economic Assessment Decision Analyses of Counter- measures

3. Terrorism Risk Analysis: Research Objectives To help anticipate a wide range of terrorist attacks To help anticipate a wide range of terrorist attacks To estimate the likelihood of terrorist attacks To estimate the likelihood of terrorist attacks To estimate the consequences of terrorist attack scenarios To estimate the consequences of terrorist attack scenarios________________________________________________ To improve the allocation of resources to defend against terrorism

4. What is Risk Analysis? Structured, logical, and quantitative approach to estimating risks Structured, logical, and quantitative approach to estimating risks Based on probability theory, Bayesian statistics, and utility theory Based on probability theory, Bayesian statistics, and utility theory Tools: Event trees, faults trees, decision trees, probabilistic simulation techniques, etc. Tools: Event trees, faults trees, decision trees, probabilistic simulation techniques, etc.

5. 30 Years of Experience with Risk Analysis Failure of Engineered Systems Failure of Engineered Systems Natural Disasters Natural Disasters Environmental Pollution Environmental Pollution Financial and Project Risks Financial and Project Risks____________________________ Can we generalize risk analysis to terrorism?

6. Challenges Terrorists are enemies, not a neutral engineered system or nature Terrorists are enemies, not a neutral engineered system or nature Scenarios are unbounded Scenarios are unbounded Probabilities are elusive and shifting Probabilities are elusive and shifting Consequences are only limited by our imagination Consequences are only limited by our imagination

7. CREATE Projects

8. LA and Long Beach Ports 3 rd busiest port in the world 36% of US imports 11.4 million TEUs per year $212 billion cargo value

9. The Dirty Bomb Project: Risk Analysis Develop attack scenarios: Sources x delivery mechanism x location Develop attack scenarios: Sources x delivery mechanism x location Estimate relative probabilities: Project risk analysis Estimate relative probabilities: Project risk analysis Provide information for consequence analysis: Radiological source term etc. Provide information for consequence analysis: Radiological source term etc.

10. Example Sources Medical and Research Facilities Medical and Research Facilities Industrial Facilities Industrial Facilities Nuclear Waste Nuclear Waste Special Nuclear Materials Special Nuclear Materials

11. Three Source Scenarios 1. Theft of radioactive materials from a U.S. hospital 2. Theft of a U.S. industrial irradiator 3. Theft or purchase of spent nuclear fuel from a Russian reactor or reprocessing plant

12. Detailed Scenario 3: Spent Nuclear Fuel from Russian Reactor or Reprocessing Facility

13. Obtain explosives Transport explosives Obtain RAD material Transport RAD material Build dirty bomb 1.RAD Source 2.Bomb Target 3.Staffing 4.Funding 5.Communication PlanPrepare The Project Begins….

14. Transport dirty bomb to target Detonate dirty bomb Build dirty bomb Attack Escape … and is completed

15. The Complete Project

16. Consequence Assessment Short term consequences: Short term consequences: –Fatalities and injuries from blast –Damage to structures from blast –Acute radiation exposure Medium Term Consequences Medium Term Consequences –Shut down of port –Business interruption Long term consequences: Long term consequences: –Latent cancers

17. Hypothetical Radioactive Plume 17 km 10 km

18. Dirty Bomb Project: Economic Modeling Inputs: Inputs: –Short term closure of port –Long term closure of port Results: Results: – $138 million for 15 days closure –$35 billion for 120 days closure

19. Countermeasures Radiation detection portals for trucks at entry points Radiation detection portals for trucks at entry points Inspection of containers including radiation detection Inspection of containers including radiation detection Personal radiation detection devices Personal radiation detection devices

20. Preliminary Lessons Project risk analysis is a viable tool Project risk analysis is a viable tool –Can provide a roadmap of terrorist attacks –Can establishes an upper bound of the probability of a successful attack –Can identify project vulnerabilities Challenges: Challenges: –How to obtain the probability of intent –How to define project failure –How to assess failure probabilities

21. Outlook Project risk analysis is only one of many possible tools Project risk analysis is only one of many possible tools CREATE’s risk analysis team is exploring other analysis concepts based on CREATE’s risk analysis team is exploring other analysis concepts based on –Game theory –Methods to identify robust strategies –Multi-hazard approaches State of the art review (January 14-15, 2005) State of the art review (January 14-15, 2005)