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**CHAPTER 17 Financial Planning and Forecasting**

Forecasting sales Projecting the assets and internally generated funds Projecting outside funds needed Deciding how to raise funds

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**Balance sheet (2002), in millions of dollars**

Cash & sec. $ Accts. pay. & accruals $ 100 Accounts rec Notes payable Inventories Total CL $ 200 Total CA $ L-T debt 100 Common stock 500 Net fixed Retained assets earnings Total assets $1,000 Total claims $1,000

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**Income statement (2002), in millions of dollars**

Sales $2,000.00 Less: Var. costs (60%) 1,200.00 Fixed costs EBIT $ Interest EBT $ Taxes (40%) Net income $ Dividends (30%) $15.12 Add’n to RE $35.28

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**Key ratios NWC Industry Condition BEP 10.00% 20.00% Poor**

Profit margin 2.52% 4.00% ” ROE 7.20% 15.60% ” DSO days days ” Inv. turnover 8.33x 11.00x ” F. A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x ” T. A. turnover 2.00x 2.50x ” Debt/assets 30.00% 36.00% Good TIE 6.25x 9.40x Poor Current ratio 2.50x 3.00x ” Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% O. K.

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**Key assumptions Operating at full capacity in 2002.**

Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales. Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales. 2002 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained. Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%DS = 25%)

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**Determining additional funds needed, using the AFN equation**

AFN = (A*/S0)ΔS – (L*/S0) ΔS – M(S1)(RR) = ($1,000/$2,000)($500) – ($100/$2,000)($500) – ($2,500)(0.7) = $180.9 million.

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How shall AFN be raised? The payout ratio will remain at 30 percent (d = 30%; RR = 70%). No new common stock will be issued. Any external funds needed will be raised as debt, 50% notes payable and 50% L-T debt.

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**Forecasted Income Statement (2003)**

2002 Forecast Basis 2003 Forecast Sales $2, $2,500 Less: VC 1, ,500 FC EBIT $ $ 125 Interest EBT $ $ 109 Taxes (40%) Net income $ $ Div. (30%) $15 $19 Add’n to RE $35 $46

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**Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Assets**

Basis 2003 1st Pass 2002 Cash $ $ Accts. rec Inventories Total CA $ $ 625 Net FA Total assets $1,000 $1,250

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**Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Liabilities and Equity**

Basis 2003 1st Pass 2002 AP/accruals $ $ 125 Notes payable Total CL $ $ 225 L-T debt Common stk Ret.earnings * Total claims $1,000 $1,071 * From income statement.

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**What is the additional financing needed (AFN)?**

Required increase in assets = $ 250 Spontaneous increase in liab. = $ Increase in retained earnings = $ Total AFN = $ 179 NWC must have the assets to generate forecasted sales. The balance sheet must balance, so we must raise $179 million externally.

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**How will the AFN be financed?**

Additional N/P 0.5 ($179) = $89.50 Additional L-T debt But this financing will add to interest expense, which will lower NI and retained earnings. We will generally ignore financing feedbacks.

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**Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Assets – 2nd pass**

1st Pass 2003 2nd Pass AFN Cash $ $ Accts. rec Inventories Total CA $ $ 625 Net FA Total assets $1,250 $1,250

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**Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Liabilities and Equity – 2nd pass**

1st Pass 2003 2nd Pass AFN AP/accruals $ $ 125 Notes payable Total CL $ $ 315 L-T debt Common stk Ret.earnings Total claims $1,071 $1,250 * From income statement.

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**Why do the AFN equation and financial statement method have different results?**

Equation method assumes a constant profit margin, a constant dividend payout, and a constant capital structure. Financial statement method is more flexible. More important, it allows different items to grow at different rates.

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**Forecasted ratios (2003) 2002 2003(E) Industry**

BEP 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% Poor Profit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% ” ROE 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% ” DSO (days) ” Inv. turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x ” F. A. turnover 4.00x 4.00x 5.00x ” T. A. turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x ” D/A ratio 30.00% 40.34% 36.00% ” TIE 6.25x 7.81x 9.40x ” Current ratio 2.50x 1.99x 3.00x ” Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% O. K.

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**What was the net investment in operating capital?**

OC2003 = NOWC + Net FA = $625 - $125 + $ = $1,125 OC2002 = $900 Net investment in OC = $1,125 - $900 = $225

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**How much free cash flow is expected to be generated in 2003?**

FCF = NOPAT – Net inv. in OC = EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC = $125 (0.6) – $225 = $75 – $225 = -$150.

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**Suppose fixed assets had only been operating at 75% of capacity in 2002**

Additional sales could be supported with the existing level of assets. The maximum amount of sales that can be supported by the current level of assets is: Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity = $2,000 / 0.75 = $2,667 Since this is less than 2003 forecasted sales, no additional assets are needed.

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**How would the excess capacity situation affect the 2003 AFN?**

The projected increase in fixed assets was $125, the AFN would decrease by $125. Since no new fixed assets will be needed, AFN will fall by $125, to AFN = $179 – $125 = $54.

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**Target ratio = FA / Capacity sales = $500 / $2,667 = 18.75% **

If sales increased to $3,000 instead, what would be the fixed asset requirement? Target ratio = FA / Capacity sales = $500 / $2,667 = 18.75% Have enough FA for sales up to $2,667, but need FA for another $333 of sales ΔFA = ($333) = $62.4

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**How would excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios?**

Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would be better. Less new debt, hence lower interest, so higher profits, EPS, ROE (when financing feedbacks were considered). Debt ratio, TIE would improve.

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**Forecasted ratios (2003) with projected 2003 sales of $2,500**

% of 2002 Capacity 100% % Industry BEP 10.00% 11.11% 20.00% Profit margin 2.62% 2.62% 4.00% ROE 8.77% 8.77% 15.60% DSO (days) Inv. turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x F. A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x 5.00x T. A. turnover 2.00x 2.22x 2.50x D/A ratio 40.34% 33.71% 36.00% TIE 7.81x 7.81x 9.40x Current ratio 1.99x 2.48x 3.00x

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**How is NWC managing its receivables and inventories?**

DSO is higher than the industry average, and inventory turnover is lower than the industry average. Improvements here would lower current assets, reduce capital requirements, and further improve profitability and other ratios.

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**How would the following items affect the AFN?**

Higher dividend payout ratio? Increase AFN: Less retained earnings. Higher profit margin? Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings. Higher capital intensity ratio? Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales. Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days? Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e., L*/S0 increases).

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