Presentation on theme: "CHAPTER 17 Financial Planning and Forecasting"— Presentation transcript:
1CHAPTER 17 Financial Planning and Forecasting Forecasting salesProjecting the assets and internally generated fundsProjecting outside funds neededDeciding how to raise funds
2Balance sheet (2002), in millions of dollars Cash & sec. $ Accts. pay. &accruals $ 100Accounts rec Notes payableInventories Total CL $ 200Total CA $ L-T debt 100Common stock 500Net fixed Retainedassets earningsTotal assets $1,000 Total claims $1,000
3Income statement (2002), in millions of dollars Sales $2,000.00Less: Var. costs (60%) 1,200.00Fixed costsEBIT $InterestEBT $Taxes (40%)Net income $Dividends (30%) $15.12Add’n to RE $35.28
4Key ratios NWC Industry Condition BEP 10.00% 20.00% Poor Profit margin 2.52% 4.00% ”ROE 7.20% 15.60% ”DSO days days ”Inv. turnover 8.33x 11.00x ”F. A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x ”T. A. turnover 2.00x 2.50x ”Debt/assets 30.00% 36.00% GoodTIE 6.25x 9.40x PoorCurrent ratio 2.50x 3.00x ”Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% O. K.
5Key assumptions Operating at full capacity in 2002. Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales.Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales.2002 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained.Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%DS = 25%)
7How shall AFN be raised?The payout ratio will remain at 30 percent (d = 30%; RR = 70%).No new common stock will be issued.Any external funds needed will be raised as debt, 50% notes payable and 50% L-T debt.
8Forecasted Income Statement (2003) 2002ForecastBasis2003ForecastSales $2, $2,500Less: VC 1, ,500FCEBIT $ $ 125InterestEBT $ $ 109Taxes (40%)Net income $ $Div. (30%) $15 $19Add’n to RE $35 $46
10Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Liabilities and Equity Basis20031st Pass2002AP/accruals $ $ 125Notes payableTotal CL $ $ 225L-T debtCommon stkRet.earnings *Total claims $1,000 $1,071* From income statement.
11What is the additional financing needed (AFN)? Required increase in assets = $ 250Spontaneous increase in liab. = $Increase in retained earnings = $Total AFN = $ 179NWC must have the assets to generate forecasted sales. The balance sheet must balance, so we must raise $179 million externally.
12How will the AFN be financed? Additional N/P0.5 ($179) = $89.50Additional L-T debtBut this financing will add to interest expense, which will lower NI and retained earnings. We will generally ignore financing feedbacks.
14Forecasted Balance Sheet (2003) Liabilities and Equity – 2nd pass 1st Pass20032nd PassAFNAP/accruals $ $ 125Notes payableTotal CL $ $ 315L-T debtCommon stkRet.earningsTotal claims $1,071 $1,250* From income statement.
15Why do the AFN equation and financial statement method have different results? Equation method assumes a constant profit margin, a constant dividend payout, and a constant capital structure.Financial statement method is more flexible. More important, it allows different items to grow at different rates.
16Forecasted ratios (2003) 2002 2003(E) Industry BEP 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% PoorProfit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% ”ROE 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% ”DSO (days) ”Inv. turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x ”F. A. turnover 4.00x 4.00x 5.00x ”T. A. turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x ”D/A ratio 30.00% 40.34% 36.00% ”TIE 6.25x 7.81x 9.40x ”Current ratio 2.50x 1.99x 3.00x ”Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% O. K.
17What was the net investment in operating capital? OC2003 = NOWC + Net FA= $625 - $125 + $ = $1,125OC2002 = $900Net investment in OC = $1,125 - $900= $225
18How much free cash flow is expected to be generated in 2003? FCF = NOPAT – Net inv. in OC= EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC= $125 (0.6) – $225= $75 – $225= -$150.
19Suppose fixed assets had only been operating at 75% of capacity in 2002 Additional sales could be supported with the existing level of assets.The maximum amount of sales that can be supported by the current level of assets is:Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity= $2,000 / 0.75 = $2,667Since this is less than 2003 forecasted sales, no additional assets are needed.
20How would the excess capacity situation affect the 2003 AFN? The projected increase in fixed assets was $125, the AFN would decrease by $125.Since no new fixed assets will be needed, AFN will fall by $125, toAFN = $179 – $125 = $54.
21Target ratio = FA / Capacity sales = $500 / $2,667 = 18.75% If sales increased to $3,000 instead, what would be the fixed asset requirement?Target ratio = FA / Capacity sales= $500 / $2,667 = 18.75%Have enough FA for sales up to $2,667, but need FA for another $333 of salesΔFA = ($333) = $62.4
22How would excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios? Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would be better.Less new debt, hence lower interest, so higher profits, EPS, ROE (when financing feedbacks were considered).Debt ratio, TIE would improve.
23Forecasted ratios (2003) with projected 2003 sales of $2,500 % of 2002 Capacity100% % IndustryBEP 10.00% 11.11% 20.00%Profit margin 2.62% 2.62% 4.00%ROE 8.77% 8.77% 15.60%DSO (days)Inv. turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00xF. A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x 5.00xT. A. turnover 2.00x 2.22x 2.50xD/A ratio 40.34% 33.71% 36.00%TIE 7.81x 7.81x 9.40xCurrent ratio 1.99x 2.48x 3.00x
24How is NWC managing its receivables and inventories? DSO is higher than the industry average, and inventory turnover is lower than the industry average.Improvements here would lower current assets, reduce capital requirements, and further improve profitability and other ratios.
25How would the following items affect the AFN? Higher dividend payout ratio?Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.Higher profit margin?Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings.Higher capital intensity ratio?Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales.Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days?Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e., L*/S0 increases).