Presentation on theme: "Financial Planning and Forecasting. Forecast Sales Project the Assets Needed to Support Sales Project Internally Generated Funds Project Outside Funds."— Presentation transcript:
Known as percentage of sales approach. Zippy is operating at full capacity in 2006. Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales. Accounts payable and accruals grow proportionally with sales. 2006 profit margin (15%) and payout (30%) will be maintained. Sales are expected to increase by $3 million. (% S = 30%)
Sales growth: higher growth leads to more AFN Capital Intensity Ratio (A/S): higher A/S leads to more AFN Spontaneous liabilities to sales ratio (L/S): higher ratio means more internal financing and less AFN Profit Margin (M): higher profit margin means higher net income and less AFN Retention Ratio: higher ratio means more retained earnings and less AFN
Assume Zippys net fixed assets were operating at 80% capacity and current assets at 100% capacity in 2006. How would Zippys additional financing needed change? Need to know what level of sales Zippys existing net fixed assets can support or produce = Full Capacity Sales
Full Capacity Sales (FCS) = Current Sales/% of Capacity Zippys 2006 Sales = 10,000 80% Capacity Full Capacity Sales = 10,000/0.8 = 12,500 Target FA Ratio = 2006 FA/ FCS 4000/12,500 = 0.32 = 32% Proj FA = 0.32(proj sales) = 0.32(13,000) = 4,160
New AFN is -455 This means Zippy can reduce debt to make the projected balance sheet balance or just add the surplus financing to the cash account.
We have assumed a constant profit margin which means interest expense is assumed to increase proportionally with sales. A companys financing decision may cause the actual interest expense to be higher or lower than this projection. If the additional financing decision causes interest expense to be higher, then even more financing will be needed.
Instead of assuming individual assets will remain a constant percentage of sales, a company can modify their forecast by: using regression analysis to project individual asset accounts. using target financial ratios to project individual asset accounts.
Zippys 2006 DSO is 73 days, they plan to improve their collection policy and lower their DSO to 60 days in 2007. What is their projected 2007 receivables (projected sales 13,000,000) and reduction in AFN vs. their current DSO? DSO = Receivables/(sales/365) Receivables = DSOx(sales/365)
New Receivables projection = 60 x (13,000,000/365) = 2,136,986 Our original projection = 73 x (13,000,000/365) = 2,600,000 Reduction in projected receivables = 2,600,000 – 2,136,986 = 463,014 463,014 is also the reduction in AFN.
1 Unless stated otherwise, all expenses are assumed to increase proportionally with sales, yielding the same profit margin At full capacity, all assets increase proportionally with sales Only accounts payable and accrued taxes and wages(accruals) increase proportionally with sales Forecasted Retained Earnings are added to the previous years b/s acct.
2 With financial statement forecast, AFN = projected total assets - projected liab&eq Proj. spontaneous assets and liabilities = last years ratio of each account to sales times forecasted sales AFN is plug amount that makes the balance sheet balance With AFN equation, AFN = projected change in assets - proj. change in liabilities - projected new retained earnings
3 If fixed assets are operating at less than 100% capacity, determine full capacity sales Full capacity sales = old sales/ % of capacity If projected sales < full capacity sales, no increase in fixed assets is needed If projected sales > full capacity sales, then proj. FA = old FA/Full capacity sales times projected sales