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An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region

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Presentation on theme: "An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region"— Presentation transcript:

1 An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region
CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a Regional Assessment An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region

2 CIWARA = ? In the Bambara mythology, the ciwara is a laboring wild animal representing the creation of farming. Throughout the Manding area of West Africa, it symbolizes courage, selflessness and wisdom, and is awarded to meritorious workers

3 CIWARA: Goals G1. Substantially improve the characterization of food security risks due to climate variability and change in semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa. G2. Enhance the adaptive capacity of West African populations for changing environmental (biophysical, socio-economic) and technological conditions.

4 CIWARA: Sites Country Site (district)
Rainfall (proxy for agro-ecological potential) Population density (proxy for intensification) Lower Higher Burkina Faso Yatenga x Kenedougou Ghana Lawra/Jirapa Tolon K. Mali Koutiala Bougouni Niger Kollo Aguie Senegal Kaffrine Nioro

5 CIWARA: Sites, aridity index

6 CIWARA: Sites, LGP

7 CIWARA: Sites, Rainfall

8 CIWARA: Sites, Population Density

9 CIWARA: Sites, Dominant Language

10 CIWARA: facts & numbers
8 outputs: Climates Crops Yields Scales Trade-offs Farmers Policy Capacity 5 countries: B. Faso Ghana Mali Niger Senegal 4 crops: Maize Millet Sorghum Peanut 3 CC themes: RAPs aggregation uncertainty 4 themes: climate crop Economics IT 3 crop models: APSIM DSSAT SarraH 3 capacity builing levels: 15 scientists (senior + junior, male + female), 10 institutions (NARS, NHMS, NGO, ARO, academia, CGIAR, ARI), 10 students (2 /country)

11 CIWARA: Approach=f(theme, scale)

12 CIWARA: Objective 1, “climates”
Objective: Assemble, curate and migrate local to regional climate, crop, economic data in a standard, open-access database Outcome: Adequate granularity is secured to ensure representativeness and relevance of the current and future assessments for West African conditions Lead: S.B. Traoré / Agrhymet Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

13 CIWARA: Objective 2, “crops”
Objective: Improve and compare crop models performances for West African millets, sorghums, and their supporting soils Outcome: Relevance of existing models to West African conditions is strengthened with key regional traits & responses incorporated, including enrichment of intra-specific agro-biodiversity in models Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI, P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

14 CIWARA: Objective 3, “yields”
Objective: Generate contrasted yield baselines (2) and scenarios (4) for West African maize, millets, peanuts, and sorghums Outcome: Regional climate variability and change patterns (historical, projected) are translated into yield probabilities for representative germplasm, management practices, and locations Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI Timeline: Jan-Jun 2013 (6 months)

15 CIWARA: Objective 4, “scales”
Objective: Aggregate point-level yield probabilities to sub-national scale and assess uncertainty thereof against independent datasets Outcome: Sources of bias and uncertainty in aggregate production statistics (conversely: downscaled farm information services) are better understood for heterogeneous smallholder agricultural landscapes Lead: P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT, M. Adam / CIRAD Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

16 CIWARA: Objective 5, “trade-offs”
Objective: Elicit representative agricultural pathways and quantify climate impacts using the Trade-Off Analysis (TOA)-MD tools Outcome: Sub-national socio-economic, technological trajectories subject to future climate forcing are simulated and used as reference in future regional assessments of climate change impacts Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

17 CIWARA: Objective 6, “farmers”
Objective: Improve the granularity, relevance, and spatial coverage of agro-meteorological advisories for smallholder farmers Outcome: Generic crop calendars and agro-meteorological advisories are refined into location-specific, ecotype-specific decision support tools, and scaled out from Mali to Senegal Lead: D.Z. Diarra / Meteo-Mali, O. Ndiaye / ANACIM Timeline: Apr-Dec 2013 (9 months)

18 CIWARA: Objective 7, “policy”
Objective: Update selected policy instruments (e.g. NAPAs) with project results at national (5 countries), regional (ECOWAS) levels Outcome: West African policy makers are better informed about local impacts of climate variability, change, and can deploy adaptation and mitigation strategies that are more relevant and effective Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR Timeline: Sep Feb 2014 (5 months)

19 CIWARA: Objective 8, “capacity”
Objective: Build regional research capacity for integrated climate change impacts assessments at scientist, graduate student levels Outcome: An “AgMIP alumni” core group is created with increased trans-disciplinary expertise and a new generation of future PhD graduates is in training within AgMIP and/or affiliated networks Lead: S.G.K. Adiku / UG Timeline: now-Feb 2014 (18 months)

20 CIWARA: capacity gaps BF GH ML NE SN OI: Climate ? n y O II: Crops
O III: Yields O IV: Scales O V: Trade- off O VI: Farmers OV II: Policy Y

21 Identified student topics
Host University Local Supervisor External Supervisor Student name Variability of weather X’tics relevant to Agric win the 20th Century and CC UGB, Saint Louis Pr. Aliou Diop + Ousmane Ndiaye B. Sarr, Agrhymet, Niamey Bilal Sow Defining production systems diversity to run crop models using expert knowledge, GIS and household statistics UCAD, Dakar Pr. Ali Mbaye + Ibrahima Hathie M. Adam + P.C.S. Traore, ICRISAT, Bamako to be identified Integration of indigenous knowledge in meteorological advisories to farmers U. Bamako Pr. Bayoko + D.Z. Diarra S.B. Traore, Agrhymet, Niamey Comparative effects of tillering and planning density on predicted millet yield in APSIM + DSSAT Dr. M. Kouressy + P.C.S. Traore D.S.K. Maccarthy + M. Diancoumba, UG, Kpong F. Akinseye? - tbi Simulation of crop growth risks and adaptation under variable C using modeling approaches UG, Legon Pr. S.G.K. Adiku + D.S.K. Maccarthy Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Dakar tbi

22 Identified student topics (contd)
Host University Local Supervisor External Supervisor Student name Implications of CC on small holder farmers in the Guinea+ Sudan Savannah zones of West Africa (NR, Ghana & S.B. Faso) UDS, Tamale J. Amikuzuno M.Sanon + T. Lodoun + Pr. Tbi, Univ. Ouaga tbi Same as previous (UW, Ghana & W.B.Faso) Uni. Ouaga Pr. tbi + M. Sanon + T. Lodoun J. Amikuzuno, UDS, Tamale Simulating soil water conservation methods on millet yields with APSIM/DSSAT Uni. Ouaga Pr. tbi P.I. Akponikpe, Uni. Parakou CC and adaptation strategies for agro-meteorological services Uni. Niamey Pr. tbi + B. Sarr D.Z. Diarra, Meteo-Mali, Bamako tbd Pr. tbi + F. Dougbedji I. Hathie, IPAR, Dakar Simulating micro dosing effects on soil nutrients using crop modeling Prof. Xxx /Benoit Adiku/ Dilys (UG, Ghana)

23 CIWARA: $ resources Univ. Ghana: USD 165,741 Agrhymet: USD 174,010 ICRISAT: USD 175,954 NARES (x4): USD 186,167 NHMS (x2): USD 98,113 _____________________ Total: USD 799,986

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