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CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a Regional Assessment An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region.

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Presentation on theme: "CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a Regional Assessment An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region."— Presentation transcript:

1 CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a Regional Assessment An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region

2 CIWARA = ? In the Bambara mythology, the ciwara is a laboring wild animal representing the creation of farming. Throughout the Manding area of West Africa, it symbolizes courage, selflessness and wisdom, and is awarded to meritorious workers

3 CIWARA: Goals G1. Substantially improve the characterization of food security risks due to climate variability and change in semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa. G2. Enhance the adaptive capacity of West African populations for changing environmental (biophysical, socio-economic) and technological conditions.

4 CIWARA: Sites Country Site (district) Rainfall (proxy for agro- ecological potential) Population density (proxy for intensification) LowerHigherLowerHigher Burkina Faso Yatengaxx Kenedougouxx Ghana Lawra/Jirapaxx Tolon K.xx Mali Koutialaxx Bougounixx Niger Kolloxx Aguiexx Senegal Kaffrinexx Nioroxx

5 CIWARA: Sites, aridity index

6 CIWARA: Sites, LGP

7 CIWARA: Sites, Rainfall

8 CIWARA: Sites, Population Density

9 CIWARA: Sites, Dominant Language

10 CIWARA: facts & numbers 8 outputs: Climates Crops Yields Scales Trade-offs Farmers Policy Capacity 5 countries: B. Faso Ghana Mali Niger Senegal 4 crops: Maize Millet Sorghum Peanut 3 crop models: APSIM DSSAT SarraH 4 themes: climate crop Economics IT 3 CC themes: RAPs aggregation uncertainty 3 capacity builing levels: 15 scientists (senior + junior, male + female), 10 institutions (NARS, NHMS, NGO, ARO, academia, CGIAR, ARI), 10 students (2 /country)

11 CIWARA: Approach=f(theme, scale)

12 CIWARA: Objective 1, climates Objective: Assemble, curate and migrate local to regional climate, crop, economic data in a standard, open-access database Outcome: Adequate granularity is secured to ensure representativeness and relevance of the current and future assessments for West African conditions Lead: S.B. Traoré / Agrhymet Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

13 CIWARA: Objective 2, crops Objective: Improve and compare crop models performances for West African millets, sorghums, and their supporting soils Outcome: Relevance of existing models to West African conditions is strengthened with key regional traits & responses incorporated, including enrichment of intra-specific agro- biodiversity in models Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI, P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

14 CIWARA: Objective 3, yields Objective: Generate contrasted yield baselines (2) and scenarios (4) for West African maize, millets, peanuts, and sorghums Outcome: Regional climate variability and change patterns (historical, projected) are translated into yield probabilities for representative germplasm, management practices, and locations Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI Timeline: Jan-Jun 2013 (6 months)

15 CIWARA: Objective 4, scales Objective: Aggregate point-level yield probabilities to sub-national scale and assess uncertainty thereof against independent datasets Outcome: Sources of bias and uncertainty in aggregate production statistics (conversely: downscaled farm information services) are better understood for heterogeneous smallholder agricultural landscapes Lead: P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT, M. Adam / CIRAD Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

16 CIWARA: Objective 5, trade-offs Objective: Elicit representative agricultural pathways and quantify climate impacts using the Trade-Off Analysis (TOA)-MD tools Outcome: Sub-national socio-economic, technological trajectories subject to future climate forcing are simulated and used as reference in future regional assessments of climate change impacts Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

17 CIWARA: Objective 6, farmers Objective: Improve the granularity, relevance, and spatial coverage of agro-meteorological advisories for smallholder farmers Outcome: Generic crop calendars and agro- meteorological advisories are refined into location-specific, ecotype-specific decision support tools, and scaled out from Mali to Senegal Lead: D.Z. Diarra / Meteo-Mali, O. Ndiaye / ANACIM Timeline: Apr-Dec 2013 (9 months)

18 CIWARA: Objective 7, policy Objective: Update selected policy instruments (e.g. NAPAs) with project results at national (5 countries), regional (ECOWAS) levels Outcome: West African policy makers are better informed about local impacts of climate variability, change, and can deploy adaptation and mitigation strategies that are more relevant and effective Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR Timeline: Sep Feb 2014 (5 months)

19 CIWARA: Objective 8, capacity Objective: Build regional research capacity for integrated climate change impacts assessments at scientist, graduate student levels Outcome: An AgMIP alumni core group is created with increased trans-disciplinary expertise and a new generation of future PhD graduates is in training within AgMIP and/or affiliated networks Lead: S.G.K. Adiku / UG Timeline: now-Feb 2014 (18 months)

20 CIWARA: capacity gaps BFGHMLNESN OI: Climate ?n?yy O II: Crops y y yyn O III: Yields yy?yn O IV: Scales nny?n O V: Trade- off nynny O VI: Farmers nnyny OV II: Policy nyn?Y

21 Identified student topics Topic Host University Local Supervisor External Supervisor Student name Variability of weather Xtics relevant to Agric win the 20th Century and CC UGB, Saint Louis Pr. Aliou Diop + Ousmane Ndiaye B. Sarr, Agrhymet, Niamey Bilal Sow Defining production systems diversity to run crop models using expert knowledge, GIS and household statistics UCAD, Dakar Pr. Ali Mbaye + Ibrahima Hathie M. Adam + P.C.S. Traore, ICRISAT, Bamako to be identified Integration of indigenous knowledge in meteorological advisories to farmers U. Bamako Pr. Bayoko + D.Z. Diarra S.B. Traore, Agrhymet, Niamey to be identified Comparative effects of tillering and planning density on predicted millet yield in APSIM + DSSAT U. Bamako Dr. M. Kouressy + P.C.S. Traore D.S.K. Maccarthy + M. Diancoumba, UG, Kpong F. Akinseye? - tbi Simulation of crop growth risks and adaptation under variable C using modeling approaches UG, Legon Pr. S.G.K. Adiku + D.S.K. Maccarthy Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Dakar tbi

22 Identified student topics (cont d ) Topic Host University Local Supervisor External Supervisor Student name Implications of CC on small holder farmers in the Guinea+ Sudan Savannah zones of West Africa (NR, Ghana & S.B. Faso) UDS, TamaleJ. Amikuzuno M.Sanon + T. Lodoun + Pr. Tbi, Univ. Ouaga tbi Same as previous (UW, Ghana & W.B.Faso) Uni. Ouaga Pr. tbi + M. Sanon + T. Lodoun J. Amikuzuno, UDS, Tamale tbi Simulating soil water conservation methods on millet yields with APSIM/DSSAT Uni. OuagaPr. tbi P.I. Akponikpe, Uni. Parakou tbi CC and adaptation strategies for agro-meteorological services Uni. Niamey Pr. tbi + B. Sarr D.Z. Diarra, Meteo- Mali, Bamako tbi tbdUni. Niamey Pr. tbi + F. Dougbedji I. Hathie, IPAR, Dakar tbi Simulating micro dosing effects on soil nutrients using crop modeling Uni. Niamey Prof. Xxx /Benoit Adiku/ Dilys (UG, Ghana) tbi

23 CIWARA: $ resources Univ. Ghana: USD 165,741 Agrhymet: USD 174,010 ICRISAT: USD 175,954 NARES (x4): USD 186,167 NHMS (x2): USD 98,113 _____________________ Total: USD 799,986


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