Toolbox Criteria for the selection of tools Question Data availability Expected answer
The tradeoff analysis model The Tradeoff Analysis framework is a tool to model agricultural production systems by integrating spatial data and disciplinary simulation models. It helps scientific teams to quantify and visualize tradeoffs between key indicators under alternative policy, technology and environmental scenarios of interest to policy decision makers and other stakeholders.
Indicators Economic indicators Production indicators Social indicators Environmental indicators
Environmental quality Agricultural productivity Trade-offs The variation represents the heterogeneity in environmental conditions, prices of agricultural inputs and outputs, field sizes, etc.
Environmental quality Agricultural productivity Scenarios Determine the shift in the tradeoff curve as a result of: changes in technology policy interventions
How do we accomplish this? Stakeholder consultation Data collection Model development Interactive simulation Results Slight Severe Tillage erosion
The Machakos case - indicators Indicators Economic indicators Soil fertility decline Poverty Food security Sources Stakeholder meetings Policy documents
The Machakos case – Data collection Common problem Answers are expected soon Data collection is expensive Activities Data collection methods Explore available data Minimum data set approaches
The Machakos case – Data collection Machakos Climate interpolation Digital soil mapping Nutmon datasets
Objective:expected production (important driving factor) Data: Fertilizer Use Recommendation Program Model: DSSAT Results:Expected productivity Model development: (1) crop growth
Results: (1) Expected productivities Maize production Bean production
Objective:Describe decision making process population of farmers Data: Farm surveys (Nutmon) Model: Econometric production models Results:Simulation model describing decision making process Model development: (2) production models
Objective:Quantify the effect of management decisions on the environment Data: Field experiments Model: Nutmon Results:Change in soil fertility Model development: (3) environmental impact
Results: The current situation Nitrogen depletion Net returns (Ksh/Yr)
Results: The tradeoff curve Nitrogen depletion Poverty index
Nitrogen depletion Poverty index Base scenario Manure Fertilizer price Manure + fertilizer price Maize productivity Results: Technology scenarios