1. NIORO case study Amy Faye ISRA-BAME

2. Objectives Climate change impact assessment Objectives : Assess the distributional impact of climate change in the region of Nioro (in Senegal) and how adaptation strategies can help to cope with climate change Expected outputs and outcomes -Expected outputs: populations (especially small holder farmers) will be negatively affected by climate change -Expected outcomes: higher temperatures, high variations in precipitation, elevated poverty rate, decrease in yields, lower net returns at farm-level, decrease of nutrition level, decrease in soil nutrients (due to soil erosion)

3. Population and Strata Population of farmers in the region of Nioro located in the south of the peanut basin (an agro ecological zone in Senegal) Strata -sub-population of small farms -sub-population of large farms

5. Systems System 1: Base technology, base climate Sub-systems & corresponding activities: - Crop subsystem : peanut, millet - Livestock subsystem: cattle, donkeys, poultry, small ruminants

6. System diagram Peanut Millet Livestock Household Cooking Labor (animal traction) and soil fertilizer Cooking Cooking and transportation Labor

7. Design of System 2: 2 cases ->Case 1: climate change without adoption System 2: Base technology and climate change ->Case 2: climate change with adoption system 2: Adapted technology (e.g. new drought resistant variety of peanut, millet or both, improved species of livestock which have higher productivity for milk and meat, and higher tolerance of heat) and climate change

8. RAPs Low adaptation challenges: higher rates of economic growth, household size increases, so labor is available, market prices are sufficiently high to allow high revenues Government supports research to develop new varieties to facilitate farmers’ adaptation Enhanced adoption of improved millet varieties from ICRISAT and other CGIAR breeding efforts (as well as that of ISRA and other Senegalese researchers) At the processing level – there is better control of aflatoxin in peanuts, that increases the market potential for peanut oil as an export Better integration within the ECOWAS and UMEOA/WAEMU countries along the CAADP priorities – and full adoption of a CAADP-focused compact at the political level in Senegal

9. Improved infrastructure within the region – especially roads and the availability of refrigeration for milk, so that dairy production losses are cut and market potential is improved High adaptation challenges: decrease in household size so less labor financial constraints: no possibility of having loans, market prices not really high: that prevent from getting high revenues decrease in soil quality and agricultural productivity Continued stagnation of groundnut productivity within the peanut basin RAPs (cont.)

10. Continued problems with controlling aflatoxin levels in peanuts, which limits the market potential for peanut oil as an export good – continuing fall in export market share for Senegal Slow adoption of improved millet varieties from ICRISAT and other CGIAR breeding efforts -- and poor extension to farmers Slow integration within the ECOWAS and UMEOA /WAEMU countries along the CAADP priorities – and delay in the negotiations and adoption of a CAADP-focused compact at the political level in Senegal RAPs (cont.)

11. Poor state of infrastructure persists within the region – especially roads and the lack of refrigeration facilities for milk, so that dairy production losses remain high and market potential is reduced Slow development by research and adoption of improved species of livestock which limits productivity growth for milk and meat Persistence of poorly-functioning or non-existence markets for fodder and feed –which limits potential for growth in the livestock sector

12. Outcomes and Indicators Outcome variable descriptions Temperature, precipitation, crop-specific yields, farm-level net returns, human nutrition level, soil nutrients’ variables, household income Indicator definitions Mean net returns, poverty rate

13. Data and Estimation Sources of data : Survey of farms by village ENEA-ISRA (2000- 2004) for the TOA project in the peanut basin Types of data – Farm household data (area, hh size, income…) – Production, price and cost data – Outcome variables data

14. Parameters for system 1 Sub system: Crop – Activity1: peanut – Activity 2: millet Sub system: Livestock – Activity 1: small ruminants – Activity 2: cattle, donkeys, goats – Activity 3: poultry

15. System 1 : Parameters Farm characteristicsMeanSDCV (%) HH size (persons)16,838,8552,58 Farm size (acres) Crop: Groundnuts Yield /farm (kg) Variable cost /farm (Rs.) Net return/farm (Rs) Price (Rs./kg)

16. Issues in data set -Crops – Available data does not include non-agricultural income Livestock – No information on livestock – No information on climate variables (precipitation and temperature) General -Data cannot be used to compute parameters for system 1 because the data base needs some cleaning