1. East Africa Tradeoff Analysis Workshop

2. Workshop goals and strategy Strategy Monday Introduction to TOA approach Tuesday AM Conceptual framework Tuesday PM Introduction to TOA software Wednesday/ Thursday AM Disciplinary breakout groups Thursday PM TOA applications to Machakos system Friday Collaborating team work plans & presentations Goals Introduce TOA approach and tools to decision makers and scientists Develop workplans for collaborating scientific teams

3. Today’s program 8:30-9:30 Opening session 9:30-10:00 Introduction of participants, workshop goals 10:00-10:30 Coffee 10:30-11:15 TOA conceptual framework 11:15-12:15 Illustrative results from other case studies 12:30-13:30 Lunch 13:30-14:00 Machakos tradeoffs - scenarios (breakout groups) 15:00-15:30 Coffee 15:30-16:00 Reports from breakout groups 16:00-17:00 Machakos scenarios and results

4. Tradeoff Analysis System Policy Decision Support for Agriculture

5. Unanswered questions in ag. science 1.Why are ag productivity and rural incomes low – and in many cases declining – in some regions of the world? For example: 2.Why do many farmers use few, if any, purchased inputs and achieve extraordinarily low yields, while others in the same regions achieve high yields?

6.  Interconnected physical, biological and human systems  varying over space and time  complex behavior: - fallacy of the “representative farm” - emergent properties - multiple equilibria - the “O-ring” phenomenon: critical linkages A new approach: Agriculture as a complex system… An explanation for the highly varied performance of ag systems…and new insights into how that performance could be improved?

7. Integrated Assessment Approach to Modeling Ag. Production Systems

8. Tradeoff analysis is a process designed to link policy decision makers to teams of scientists with these new data and tools. What is Tradeoff Analysis? These tools can be used to understand the behavior of complex agricultural systems and how they may respond to changes in policy, technology, and environmental conditions.

9. Public stakeholders Policy makers Scientists Research priority settingProject design & implementation Inform stakeholders Identify sustainability criteria Formulate hypotheses as potential tradeoffs Identify disciplines for research project Identify models and data needs define units of analysis Collect data and implement disciplinary research Is TOA always a linear process? What is Tradeoff Analysis?

10. The Tradeoff Analysis model is a tool to model agricultural production systems by integrating spatial data and disciplinary simulation models. What is the Tradeoff Analysis model? It helps scientific teams to quantify and visualize tradeoffs between key indicators under alternative policy, technology and environmental scenarios of interest to policy decision makers and other stakeholders.

11. GIS DSSAT DBMS NUTMON Policy Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Policy Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp TOA Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Policy Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS NUTMON Survey Weather Economic models A modular approach to integration of spatial data with bio-physical and economic models to simulate agricultural systems… What is the Tradeoff Analysis model?

12. Econ Returns Soil Fertility Soil Carbon Conventional Conservation “Additionality” Concepts: baseline, additionality, and permanence 1 2 Tradeoff Curves: Sustainability Indicators, incentives and scenarios

13. Economic principle of opportunity cost Intuitive appeal Easy-to-understand (2-d) Quantifies concept of sustainability Represents risk: distributions of outcomes –Health risk thresholds –Climate vulnerability –Poverty threshold (income/person/day) –Food security threshold (calories/person/day) A useful way to communicate properties of complex agricultural systems: Tradeoff curves

14. Other visualization tools.

15. Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50% Potato prices

16. Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

17. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

18. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

19. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

20. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

21. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

22. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

23. Potato prices Pesticide leaching Low High Current150%50%

24. Economic – environment – health tradeoffs associated with pesticide use. Examples Sustainability of agriculture on steeply sloped hillsides (hydric and tillage erosion, terracing, carbon). Carbon sequestration as a mechanism to finance adoption of sustainable production systems and institutions.