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© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November.

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Presentation on theme: "© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November."— Presentation transcript:

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2 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November 2009

3 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 The Recession – is it ending?

4 Grocery Price Inflation – TNS Calculation Based on year-on-year comparisons of price paid for over 75,000 identical products including promotions and in the proportion that British households are purchasing them

5 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Total RST – Key Dynamics to 04 October 2009

6 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 RST evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction 12 w/e 04 October 2009

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11 Latest 12-wk % Change -2% 0% +29% +23%

12 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS % Latest 12-wk % Change -10% -6% +8%

13 Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4 Shoppers are now trading up as Branded steals from Value OL. Standard Own Label Branded Value Own Label Premium Own Label Switching limited to Big 4 retailers and 4 tiers Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4 Total Grocery 12we 04th October 2009

14 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

15 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

16 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

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25 Average Price per pack in Tesco Discount similar to Promoted Standard Own Label RST (grocery) 12we 4 Oct 2009

26 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

27 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

28 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

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30 13.9 C2DE Large households Younger With children

31 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Trading Indices - Asda Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Oct

32 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Strong performance in Alcohol

33 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Sharp cutback in Organic

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35 Net Switching Volumes to Asda

36 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Net Switching Volumes to Asda

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40 Strong price focus

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45 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery ValueValues

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53 12 wk y-o-y trend -10%

54 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Trading Indices - Sainsbury Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Oct

55 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

56 Sainsbury Share Index Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug

57 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Fairtrade

58 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Total Grocers

59 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Total Grocers Sainsbury

60 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Total Grocers Sainsbury Waitrose

61 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Eggs

62 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Asda Tesco Morrisons

63 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Asda Tesco Morrisons Sainsburys

64 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Trading Indices - Sainsbury Broad Area Market Sector Market 52 w/e Oct

65 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

66 Sainsbury, Rolling Source of Change in Spend

67 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Net Switching to Sainsbury from Tesco

68 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Net Switching to Sainsbury from M & S

69 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Net Switching to Sainsbury from Somerfield

70 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Sainsbury's strong Repeat and now gaining new shoppers – starting to correct price perception?

71 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

72 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

73 Store sell-offs Now stable Sustained growth

74 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Temporary Price Reductions Multibuy

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79 Trading Indices - Morrisons Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Oct

80 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Trading Indices - Morrisons Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Oct

81 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

82 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

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86 Waitrose Share Index Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug

87 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Organic

88 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 £ms Total Organic Products Annualised Value = £1bn Latest 12 weeks 12% decline

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92 Trading Indices - Waitrose Broad Area Market Sector Market 52 w/e Oct Fresh Lamb 187

93 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

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100 Aldi

101 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Lidl

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107 Co-op / Somerfield Store Sales Morrisons38 Sainsburys 24 Waitrose13 Tesco 7 Musgrave 6 Spar 6

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109 Household Penetrations

110 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

111 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

112 Trading Indices – M&S Broad Area Market Sector Market 52 w/e Oct

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116 The Retailer Strategies Tesco – Fighting Back Asda – back to Price Sainsbury – Value & Values Morrisons – Moving Nationwide Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – It's their time? M&S - Flawed Model Home Delivery

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121 Total Internet Share Index Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Jun

122 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Lamb

123 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009

124 Fresh Lamb: Price YOY versus Volume YOY A key relationship between price increases and Lamb volume movements can be seen. Lamb shoppers are price sensitive

125 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Fresh Red Meat Sector Performance Lamb, followed by Beef see the greatest volume declines. Pork volume sales remain relatively static 52 w/e 4 th October 2009 versus Yr Ago

126 Fresh Red Meat Sector Shares Beef has the largest shares, but loses volume share. Pork has second largest share and gains, whilst Lamb loses market share 52 w/e 4 th October 2009 versus Yr Ago

127 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Reminders

128 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Reminders Tesco Fighting Back

129 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Back to Price Reminders Tesco Fighting Back

130 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Tesco Fighting Back Value & Values Reminders Back to Price

131 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Moving Nationwide Tesco Fighting Back Reminders Back to Price Value & Values

132 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Tesco Fighting Back Reminders The Ethical Consumer Back to Price Value & Values Moving Nationwide

133 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 It's their time? Tesco Fighting Back Reminders Back to Price Value & Values Moving Nationwide The Ethical Consumer

134 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 It's their time? Tesco Fighting Back Reminders Back to Price Value & Values Moving Nationwide The Ethical Consumer

135 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 It's their time? Tesco Fighting Back Reminders Back to Price Value & Values Moving Nationwide The Ethical Consumer

136 © Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Thank you


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