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© Kantar Worldpanel ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW Data to 5th January
© Kantar Worldpanel OVERVIEW Market Overview The market is seeing positive growth on an annual basis of +0.8% but the latest quarter has been more difficult with a -0.2% decline. While there has been price inflation, shoppers continue to compensate for price increases by purchasing on offer and trading down to cheaper lines. However increased volume bought over the Christmas period together with price inflation has resulted in year on year household spend increasing by +0.7%. Irish households are making more trips this period, with frequency up by +0.8%. Spend per trip has remained steady, spend per household has increased. Although the private label share of the grocery market slowed during the lead up to the Christmas period, it is still well ahead of last year. 2
© Kantar Worldpanel +0.6% +0.8%+1.4% -0.2% 3 Irish grocery market sales have grown over the 52 week period by 0.8%, but are down by 0.2% for the 12 week period Total Irish Grocery Market Value and Growth - 52 and 12 w/e
© Kantar Worldpanel Total Irish Grocery Market Volume Sales and Growth - 52 and 12 w/e Growth of 1.3% in volume sales in the 12 week period Volume sales flat over the 52 week period +1.1% 0.0%-0.2% +1.3% 4
© Kantar Worldpanel +1.4% -7% +0.7% -3.1% +1.9% -3.3% +1.3% Total Grocery - Sector Value Share & Growth 52w/e Fresh Food, Ambient Food and Toiletries driving growth in Grocery over the full year
© Kantar Worldpanel The decline in 12 week sales is coming from sales losses year on year in Healthcare, Frozen Food, Alcohol and Fresh & Chilled Food Fresh & Chilled Produce 47% Ambient Food 30% Household 7% Frozen 5% Alcohol 7% Healthcare 1% Toiletries 4% Share of total trolley Total Trolley -0.2% value Total Grocery - Sector Value Share & Growth 12w/e 6
© Kantar Worldpanel 12w Total Grocery - value % change by category Analysis by Category – Growth/Decline? Decline in Frozen Meat, Frozen Poultry & Game, Healthcare and Fruit & Veg & Salad 7
© Kantar Worldpanel 8 Large Majority of Markets Seeing Price Inflation, in particular Toiletries and Alcohol
© Kantar Worldpanel % change year on year – 12 week period Change in Inflation Rates and Household Spend 12 w/e Inflation for the Irish grocery market is just under 3% 9
© Kantar Worldpanel Spend less 10 How are shoppers coping? Buy on deal Trade down Store choice
© Kantar Worldpanel Trading down product or price tier still remains the key method of dealing with inflation while shoppers are back to buying more volume Trended View of Consumer Coping Strategies 11
© Kantar Worldpanel Average frequency increased by +0.8% Average frequency increased by +0.8% Average basket spend is at -0.1% Average basket spend is at -0.1% Increase in 12w spend per HH (+0.7%) Increase in 12w spend per HH (+0.7%) Changes in Consumer Shopping Behaviour - 12w/e Shoppers are buying more often with frequency increasing by +0.8%. While spend per trip has remained steady, spend per Household has increased by €9. 12
© Kantar Worldpanel 12w Total Grocery – value % Share of Market - Branded, Private Label and No Brand Name While Branded share had seen some share growth in the run up to Christmas, branded sales are down compared to last year. 13
© Kantar Worldpanel 12w Total Grocery – Private Label value % Private Label Value Share of Total Irish Grocery Market Private Label share of the grocery market slowed as we moved towards Christmas however still performed well ahead of last year 14
© Kantar Worldpanel 15 Branded and Private Label Inflation – 12w/e Inflation in Private Label goods beginning to drop back
© Kantar Worldpanel 12w Total Grocery - Categories where Private Label overtrade Private Label % Value Share by Category Where is Private Label Strong? – Meats and staples are key for Private Label 16
© Kantar Worldpanel Private Label % Value Share by Category Where is Private Label weaker? – Categories with multiple strong brands and toiletries perform well 17 12w Total Grocery - Categories where Private Label undertrade
© Kantar Worldpanel 18 % Value Share % Value Growth Market Share and Growth by Branded and Private Label Tier Premium Private Label in growth while Value Private Label declines with shoppers most likely to trade up around Christmas
© Kantar Worldpanel €1.5m Average price per pack (€) €3.09 €2.61 €1.75 €1.05 Branded Standard PL Premium PL Value PL €4.8m €503k Shoppers trading up to Premium Private Label this period while Standard Private Label still gains from Branded €203k
© Kantar Worldpanel Total Grocery – % Packs Sold On Deal – 52 w/e Shoppers perceive that the % of packs sold on deal is consistent over time
© Kantar Worldpanel Total Grocery - Sold on Deal Trended 12 w/e Promotional activity still hovers around the 14% mark of grocery sales however promotional activity is higher than this time last year
© Kantar Worldpanel Total Grocery - Sector Share Sold on Promotion – % Packs Promotional activity on Alcohol is behind what we saw last year
© Kantar Worldpanel 12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category Bathroom Toiletries & Take Home Savouries Have the Highest % of Packs Sold On Deal, While Healthcare and Dairy Products Have the Lowest Percentages. 23
© Kantar Worldpanel Cross Border Grocery Trade Update
© Kantar Worldpanel Total Cross Border Sales – Share of ROI Grocery Market – 52 w/e Cross Border Sales continue to decline now making up just under 2% of sales (€173m) down 6% on last year.
© Kantar Worldpanel Cross Border Value % Share of ROI Grocery Market – 12w/e Total Cross Border Sales – Share of Irish Grocery Market – 12 w/e Cross border share declined over Christmas despite seeing an increase over the pervious periods. 26
© Kantar Worldpanel 27 © Kantar Worldpanel Total Cross Border - % Penetration 16% of ROI shoppers have shopped across the border in the last 12 weeks
© Kantar Worldpanel 28 © Kantar Worldpanel UK GROCERY
© Kantar Worldpanel UK Grocery – Value Sales UK market showing growth year on year as inflation plays a part +3.6% 52w/e UK Grocery Value sales
© Kantar Worldpanel 30 © Kantar Worldpanel UK Market Growth and Inflation
© Kantar Worldpanel How do GB & Ireland grocery markets compare? –Market Size –Grocery Spend per HH –Market Growth –Price Inflation –€9b –€5,500 –0.8% –2.9% –£104b –stg£3,900 –+3.7% –+2.5% Source: Kantar Worldpanel, data to 5 th Jan 2014
© Kantar Worldpanel 32 © Kantar Worldpanel Private Label % Market Share Private label rising in the UK up to 47.9%
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November.
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