1. Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Jim Laver, Director 301-763-8000 x7500, jim.laver@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

2. Climate Prediction Center Overview Product Suite –Outlooks: Week 2 through Seasons –Monitoring: Global, Regional –Assessments: Threats, Diagnostics Bulletin, Annual, … Product Development and Improvement -- Research Areas Needed Outreach -- Products released via AWIPS, Weather Wire, Web, Media, Global Channels, Special Briefings to Government Agencies

8. Climate Monitoring Global Climate Conditions –El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle –Temperature and Precipitation –Atmospheric winds and pressure –Oceanic Temperatures and Currents –Stratospheric Temperatures and Ozone Regional Climate Conditions –U.S. Precipitation (Drought, Soil Moisture) –U.S. Temperature

11. Climate Assessments Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly) ENSO Diagnostic Discussion United States Assessments –Weather/Climate Hazards –Drought –Degree Days –Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity Stratosphere Annual global climate

12. Product Research, Development, and Improvement Partners Within NOAA - National Climatic Data Center - Climate Diagnostics Center - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - National Ocean Service - Tropical Prediction Center - Environmental Modeling Center - NWS Regional Headquarters - NWS Forecast Offices (WFO) Outside NOAA - International Research Institute for - Applied Research Centers Climate Prediction - US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) - Scripps Institution of Oceanography- Center of Ocean Land and Atmosphere - Federal Emergency Management - University of Maryland - National Drought Mitigation Center- NASA - US Air Force- US Aid for International Development

14. Connections to Research Weather and Climate links North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

15. Weather and Climate Links El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) Trends Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

17. ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO/NAO) Major source of winter intraseasonal variability over U. S., Atlantic and Europe Modulates the circulation pattern over the middle and high latitudes Regulates number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S.

19. NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Planning--------------| Preparations --------------| Data Collection - - - - - - ------------| Principal Research ---------------------------| Data Management -------------------------------------| HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for determining the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation over the region. Intraseasonal Variability Boundary Forcing? Topographic and Sea-Land Influence OBJECTIVES: Better understanding and simulation of: monsoon evolution and variability. response of warm season circulation and precipitation to slowly varying boundary conditions (e.g. SST, soil moisture). diurnal heating cycle and its relation to seasonally varying mean climate. Intraseasonal variability of the monsoon.

20. Outreach National --AWIPS, NOAA Weather Wire, Web, Media, Special Briefing to Agencies State & Local -- 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) brief media, emergency managers and elected officials American Red Cross, FEMA, DoS/USAID, USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, African Desk, other International Centers

21. Summary CPC produces outlooks on time scales from week 2 through seasons Monitoring and assessment efforts support forecast operations Product R & D and improvement needed with research partners on all time scales Outreach -- with partners through NOAA and International Systems, Web, Media, and Special Briefings to Agencies