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Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.

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Presentation on theme: "Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience."— Presentation transcript:

1 Extreme Events and Climate Variability

2 Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience weather extremes. What is the origin of extreme events?

3 A Major Issue for All Countries Is Global Warming and Its Regional Impacts

4 Seasonal Climate Impacts Depend on the Simultaneous Influences of: Natural Climate Variability El Nino/La Nina Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Arctic Oscillation (weak impact in Tropics) Climate Change Atmospheric Noise Extreme Events are Mostly Related to Circulation Changes, i.e. to Variability

5 The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major factor in global climate variability.

6 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors), Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface windstress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO

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9 Societal Impacts from 1997/98 El Nino

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11 Major Weather-Related Natural Disasters (1999 La Nina)

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13 Impacts of December 1999 Floods in Venezuela

14 Typical winter Weather Anomalies and Atmosphere Circulation Changes During El Nino & La Nina

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17 Contributions to Surface Temperature Trend from 1950-1999

18 SUMMARY Extremes result from: - major climate anomalies (e.g. especially El Nino and La Nina in Tropics) - unusual atmospheric circulation patterns (mostly related to climate variability) - factors acting together for air temperature (e.g. ENSO, PDO, AO, global warming) The impacts of the warming trend on circulation changes, i.e. also extremes, is still a research issue


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