1. THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS? WEEK #12 THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS?

2. THE NEXT PATTERN OF CONFLICT  ‘World Politics’ is entering a new phase where the fundamental source of conflict will not be ideological or economic. Instead, the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.  Nation-states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the main conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations.  The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future, and this new pattern of conflict will represent the last phase in the evolution of conflict in the modern world.

3. THE NATURE OF CIVILIZATIONS  Initial conflicts among empires, monarchs, nation-states and ideologies were taking place within Western civilization (as William Lind has labeled them, “Western civil wars”).  By the end of the Cold War, international politics moved out of its Western phase, and its center turned out to be the interactions between the West and non-Western civilizations and among non-Western Civilizations.  A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people. It may include several nation states, ethnic groups and regions with common elements, such as language, history and religion.

4. WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH?  Self-identification of people with a particular civilization, or civilization identity will be increasingly important since the world will be shaped by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations, which can be listed as; Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization.  Why will the conflicts of future occur along the cultural fault lines separating these civilizations?  First, differences among civilizations are basic, and these differences are products of centuries.

5. WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH?  Second, the interactions between peoples of different civilizations are strengthening civilization consciousness.  Third, the processes of economic modernization and social change weaken the nation state as a source of identity, and religion has moved in to fill this gap.  Fourth, a “return to the roots” phenomenon is occuring among non-Western civilizations, which have the desire and the resources to shape the world in non-Western ways.  Finally, cultural differences are less easily compromised than political and economic ones.

6. THE FAULT LINES BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS  Ideological boundaries of the Cold War are replaced by the fault lines between civilizations.  For instance, Europe is culturally divided by Western Christianity, Orthodox Christianity and Islam. The events took place in the former Yugoslavian territories represents that the given division is not only a simple line of difference.  The Middle East and North Africa can also be stressed as significant fault lines of a centuries old conflict between Western and Islamic civilizations.  Fault-line examples can be multiplied; India- Pakistan rivalry, Armenian-Azeri dispute etc...

7. CIVILIZATION RALLYING: THE KIN-COUNTRY SYNDROME  States or groups belonging to one civilization naturally try to rally support from other members of their civilization when they involve in an armed conflict with states or groups from a different civilization.  As a result of this tendency, civilizational commonality leads to the “kin-country syndrome” as a major basis for cooperation and coalitions in times of conflicts or rivalries between different civilizations.  Turkey’s political attitude towards the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is an illustrative example of the kin-country syndrome.

8. THE WEST VERSUS THE REST  Unrivaled Western military strength and Western domination of the United Nations Security Council and international monetary institutions has become irritating for the other civilizations.  The phrases or expresions, such as “the Free World”, “the World Community”, or “International Community”, are used to provide legitimacy to actions mainly reflecting the Western interests.  Such a generalization, provides the West a misleading idea that their civilization is the “universal” civilization. The policies and attitudes in line with this mistaken idea are likely to trigger a reaction from non-Western civilizations in the format of “the West vs. the Rest” (post-9/11??).

9. THE TORN COUNTRIES  As people, ethnic groups and countries differentiate themselves by civilizations, a strict placement of some countries into a specific civilization is not quite easy. They are simply divided over whether their society belongs to one civilization or another. These countries are called by Huntington as Torn Countries.  Turkey and Russia represent typical examples of torn countries.  Since its independence, Turkish leaders defined Turkey as a modern, secular, Western nation state. Simultaneously, there are some Islamic elements in Turkish society similar to that of other Middle Eastern states.

10. THE TORN COUNTRIES  Occasionally, Turkey’s position as a torn country complicates its NATO roles. For instance, the latest demands of the United States (within the framework of NATO) to increase the number and expand the mission of Turkish task force in Afghanistan was a huge matter of debate in Turkish public opinion.  A torn country must meet three requirements to redefine its civilization identity. a) Its political and economic elite has to be generally supportive of this move. b) Its public has to be willing to redefine their country’s identity. c)The dominant groups in the recipient civilization have to be willing to embrace the convert.

11. THE CONFUCIAN-ISLAMIC CONNECTION  There are great obstacles for some civilizations to join the West.  Those countries of non-Western civilizations that do not wish to, or cannot, join the West (for cultural and power related reasons) compete with the West by promoting their internal development and by cooperating with other non-Western countries.  The most prominent form of this cooperation is the Confucian-Islamic connection (China, North Korea and some Middle Eastern states) that challenges Western interests, values, norms and power. For instance, military spending and buildup of the Confucian-Islamic states confronts the Western norm of non-proliferation.

12. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WEST  International Relations, historically a game played out within Western civilization, will increasingly be de-Westernized and become a game in which non-Western civilizations are actors and not simply objects.  If the hypotheses of Huntington’s article ( civilization- based identity formation, torn countries, conflicts on the fault lines between civilizations, the West vs. the Rest and Confucian-Islamic connection ) are reasonable, there are some long- term and short-term implications for the West.  In addressing all long-term and short-term implications, the West needs to develop a more profound understanding of the main religious and philosophical notions underlying other civilizations