1. The North Korea Puzzle On Nuclear Bombs, Sanctions, Human Rights, Unification Hosts / Moderators : Alexander D. Perez and Vee Chansa-Ngavej

2. ● World News Briefing Vee ◦ North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile tests and ensuing UN sanctions ◦ The China Factor – implementation of sanctions Alexander ◦ Latest updates on the Human Rights issue ◦ Prospects for Korean Unification ● Discussion and Debate The North Korea Question

3. ● 4 th nuclear test since 2006 (previous tests in 2006, 2009, 2013) ◦ Worrisome trend: Increasing capability with each test – NK claims this test was thermonuclear hydrogen bomb, which is more powerful explosive than previous tests that were plutonium / fission) ◦ But widespread skepticism of H-bomb claim among intelligence circles (perhaps boosted fission?) ◦ 6-7 kilotons (2006 test was 1 kiloton), but H-bomb would have much higher yield (yield would be in megatons!) ◦ Pyongyang claims capability to miniaturize warhead to attach to missiles…can strike even continental US! (Though authenticity and reliability of delivery remains highly doubted) ● Long-range ballistic missile test in Feb. and short range missile tests on 10 March (in response to US-ROK largest ever joint-exercise, which NK perceives as drills imitating invasion of NK) 2016 Nuclear Test

9. ● Major Concerns of International Community ◦ Constant provocations and possibility of miscalculations could inadvertently lead to war ◦ Dangerous game of nuclear brinkmanship ◦ Issue could seriously destabilize region and bring about political and economic turmoil ◦ NK might sell nuclear weapons to terrorists!! ● Toughest ever sanctions to date ◦ Inspection of all planes and ships to-from NK ◦ Ban on most mineral exports (around half of NK’s income) ◦ Blacklist individuals and companies related to NK financing ◦ Resolution co-drafted by US and China (also like in 2013) – indicates China’s changing position against NK ◦ But still the question of effective implementation remains (i.e. Will China comply? 70-80% of NK trade depends on China!) International Response: Sanctions

10. ● China’s concerns ◦ Does not want to see collapse of NK because of refugee crisis and prospect of unified Korea that is American-allied ◦ May prop up NK state through non-compliance with sanctions and illicit trading (like in the past) ● Possible Effects of Sanctions ◦ NK lacks money…decides to use nuclear program as bargaining chip for cash / aid benefits ◦ However, NK has tendency to “cause a scene” leading to dangerous brinkmanship and provocations ◦ Negotiations may be possible but NK will not so readily give up its nuclear weapons program The China Factor

11. ● The typical answer: The bomb is tantamount to survival of regime! ● Provides genuine security deterrent against US-ROK ◦ Gaddafi downfall after giving up nuclear weapons ◦ Nuclear bomb has an “aura” that conventional weapons simply cannot provide ◦ NK is only world’s the 9 th nuclear weapons’ state (P5 + India + Pak + Israel) ● The bomb as a bargaining chip ◦ Used as leverage to bring regional powers to the negotiating table ◦ Without the bomb, NK would be a very weak state! ● Solidifies the regime’s grip on power (apart from internal purges!!) ◦ The Bomb as cornerstone to enhance sogun (military-first) policy ◦ Centerpiece of the propaganda apparatus towards the brainwashed NK people ◦ Kim Jong-Un as young new leader needing to prove his capability to his own military and citizens Why NK will not give up the bomb? (Freezing weapons program is possible, but not relinquishing it entirely)

12. ● https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIwMy-NM0aQ ◦ Recent documentary showing NK propaganda apparatus ● https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SUCgvIreQE ◦ Well made recent documentary providing insight into Kim Jong Un On NK Society (Documentary)

13. ● http://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2016/03/07/n-korea-threatens-nuke-strike-todd-dnt-tsr.cnn ● http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/02/world/un-north-korea-sanctions-vote/index.html ● http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/03/06/north-korea-threatens-nuclear-strike-over-military- drills-hancocks.cnn/video/playlists/north-korea-tensions/ ● http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/03/03/north-korea-nukes-ordered-ready-philip-yun-intv- ct.cnn ● http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/03/asia/north-korea-nuclear-warheads/index.html ● https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZh2sZ4hCPw ◦ Fareed Zakaria’s GPS assessment from 3 years ago, but the analysis is still relevant today!! 2016 Nuclear Test (video clips)

14. In terms of NK’s prowess, it has only recently become threatening. ● 1985 – NK joins Nonproliferation Treaty. ● 1988 – SCUD-B and C successfully fired. ● 1991 – Bush Sr. withdraws 100 US nukes. ◦ Prez. Gorbachev reciprocates. ● 1991 - SK (Prez. Roh TaeWoo) Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. SK promises to abstain from producing, processing, storing, deploying, and using nuclear weapons. Expanded to testing nukes in the South-North Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, in which both sign. ● 1994 – Despite “cooperation,” NK expels IAEA inspectors and pulls out of the program after inspectors insisted on examining discrepancies in NK’s report over its nuclear activity, along wit the refusal of allowing inspectors to examine the Yongbyeon nuclear facility. ● 1994 – Kim Il Sung dies, succeeded by Kim Jong Il. ● 1998 – NK will only abandon its missile program if suitably compensated for financial losses. ● 1998- Launched Rodong missiles (1,300km) and Taepodong-1 (2,200 km). North Korea Nuclear History

15. ● 2001 – After assuming presidency Prez Bush is skeptical of NK; relations break down quickly. ● 2002 – US openly criticizes NK, “…axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.” ● 2003 – Six Party Talks launch. ● 2005 – NK withdraws from Six Party Talks and announces it has nuclear weapons. ● 2006 – 1 st detonation after Taepodong-2 launch. ● 2009 – 2 nd detonation, more missile tests. ● 2011 – Kim Jong Ill dies. ● 2012 – Unha-3 rocket puts a satellite into space. ● 2013 – 3 rd nuclear test. ● 2014 – NK launches several missiles before Prez. Xi Jingping’s visit. ● 2016 – NK test hydrogen bomb and launches long-range rock. Key point: NK has been inching their way forward. It seems like nothing is working! ● What would Mr. Drumpf do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuIClGGj758 0:00-1:52 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuIClGGj758 DPRK Nuclear History Cont.

17. ● Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ◦ This is known as an Antiballistic Missile defense ◦ Used to physically knock down other missiles.  Designed for short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles.  Short: 1,000 km, Med: 3,500 km, Intermed: 5,500 km THAAD

18. This form of defense became a popular concept during the Cold War. However, due to it’s ironic destabilizing effects of MAD, they were agreed to be strictly refrained from being developed any further. ● The UN pressured the US (Clinton) to maintain its oath to the Anti- Ballistic Missile treaty. In 2002 (Bush Jr.) abandoned the ABM Treaty, reversing the “stabilizing” factor of MAD much to PRC and RF’s chagrin. Looking at the situation through a macro lens, perhaps the international community has reached a point were they realize the North is crossing a line in which they are in reality a true threat. They have made great progress in weaponizing their nukes. They may not have reentry tech, but looking at the gains they have made, it wouldn’t be too crazy to speculate they will be able to possess it in the near future if they don’t now. THAAD

19. Why is THAAD being considered now in SK? ● Strategic patience is not working, as discussed, NK has been inching its way forward towards nuclear ICBMs. ● Carrot approach is not working, despite accepting several concessions for dialogues and small steps “salami politics.” (froze but not reversed) ● Stick approach couldn’t fully be utilized because of how isolated NK is from the world. Liberal institutions have little leverage due a disconnect (NK black market and PRC aid). ◦ Physical retaliation is out of the question despite Northern aggression (shelling of Yeonpyeong, sinking of Cheonan, land mine planting), this would without a doubt accelerate armed conflict in the region. ● It is a given, NK is seeking its status as nuclear power to gain international legitimacy. Q: But how can this volatility be quelled? Do the Chinese really have the power to persuade NK like several assume? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/u-s-missile-defense-system-could-reshape-north-asia-security 1:30-2:25 http://www.arirang.com/News/News_View.asp?nseq=184905 1:13- 2:15 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/u-s-missile-defense-system-could-reshape-north-asia-security http://www.arirang.com/News/News_View.asp?nseq=184905 THAAD

20. Q: Why does the US want it? Due to NK’s advance missile technology, it was become increasing worried. ● NK colorful threats haven’t made this situation an easy one to swallow. http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/03/10/north-korea-war-rhetoric-sdg-orig.cnn/video/playlists/north-korea-tensions/ http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/03/10/north-korea-war-rhetoric-sdg-orig.cnn/video/playlists/north-korea-tensions/ ◦ ` It’s rhetoric may are may not be target to foreign audiences, but it paints a brutal picture nonetheless. ● With THAAD, mainland US would be secured from any missile launch that targets the US from East Asia. THAAD is considered the best ABM system to date with has a reported 100% accuracy rate. US and THAAD

21. Previously, SK had no interest in using THAAD. ● Why? Because this ABM system would heighten tensions with its close neighbor, China. ◦ China and SK have been amending their relations towards one another.  TPP  ASEAN  Frequent bilateral meetings ● However, things have been changing with the North and now 2/3rds of Korean support the idea. http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nSeq=188267 0.00-1:17 http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nSeq=188267 ◦ As mentioned, 4 nuclear tests have been conducted in the span of 10 years, each an improvement from the last. Along with several missile tests. What do the South Koreans have now to ward off an attack? ● Currently ROK has one type of missile defense, Patriot Advance Capability, PAC-2/3 (20- 30km) ◦ This does not provide enough security for ROK, it could be too short, thus too risky. ● Developing L-SAM which will be ready in 2023 (150 km) ◦ A day late, a dollar short. Will there be a South Korea in 2023? Korea and THAAD

23. China is concerned because this ABM system could very well be used against them! ● If China makes a preemptive or retaliative strike, against Korea (or the US), it could be thwarted. ◦ This scenario is however, unlikely. There is something that is just as important as the missile itself: the radar. ● The radar has a far reaching range. What this means is that SK will be able to effectively spy on Chinese air space. ◦ This could jeopardize Chinese AF’s movements. China and THAAD

25. THAAD wouldn’t be able to shoot down many Chinese missiles as assumed. ● If kept in its planned direction the ABM system will not be effective against a China to SK/US strike. Q: Is this a slippery slope? ● Once the missiles are deployed, will it be hard to recall them? Q: Should China engage in brinksmanship like Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis? ● Is power politics healthy enough to be used here? China and THAAD

26. Is THAAD all THAAT? ● There are some the argue against the deployment of THAAD. The say that the system will not give SK the protection it is claiming it will receive. http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nSeq=188267 1:17-1:45 http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nSeq=188267 ◦ One installation with 48 missiles will cost around $2.5 billion. The defensive ABM systems are already more expensive then offensive missiles. Is the price tag for multiple THAADs be worth the economic burden? ◦ NK may have up to 2 thousand missiles, one battery only has 48! Granted the North will not be able to launch all of them at once, but numbers are against even the best ABM system. Q: Is SK truly interested in the aegis of THAAD, or are do they have something else up their sleeve? Critics of THAAD

27. Outsiders have long claimed that the NK leadership has rule with a ruthless iron first. ● Being known as the Hermit Kingdom, how is it possible to receive substantiated facts about NK and its alleged human rights abuses? ● NK says no! Pyeongyang claims that such allegations are attempts to tarnish the regime’s image. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNttE0QKJI0 0.00 – 2:24https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNttE0QKJI0 What was this report Pyeongyang was denying? North Korean Human Rights

28. Since 2003 the UN General assembly and the UN Commission on Human Rights have been making annual reports over human rights violations. ● However, in 2013 the UNCHR established the Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the DPRK which concluded in 2014. ◦ The COI’s mission statement was to investigate the "systematic, widespread and grave violations of human rights in the DPRK“  A. right to food  B. prison camps,  C. torture and inhuman treatment  D. arbitrary arrest and detention,  E. discrimination in basic human rights and fundamental freedoms,  F. freedom of expression,  G. right to life  H. freedom of individual movement,  I. enforced disappearances and abductions of nationals of other states. UN report 2013

29. Marzuki Darusman Michael Donald Kirby Sonja Biserko Indonesia Australia Serbia

30. According to the extensive report, the largest conducted investigation for NK human rights, the North is guilty of several crimes: ● Arbitrary detention – arrest can occur due to black market activity (paradox: NK depends on BM but freely persecutes participants), or by guilty by association. In which case, entire families can be relocated to political/reeducation camps. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2721693/Crimes-against-humanity-Its-misunderstanding-Kim-Jong-Uns-North-Korea-publish-report-saying-human-rights-record-bright-rosy-UN-condemns-regime.html 2:30 – 4:10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlEvL0ld8D8 2:08-5:05 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2721693/Crimes-against-humanity-Its-misunderstanding-Kim-Jong-Uns-North-Korea-publish-report-saying-human-rights-record-bright-rosy-UN-condemns-regime.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlEvL0ld8D8 ● Extermination – prison camps are often used as a tool to eliminate a large number a people. Prisoners are rarely released and usually perish from excessive work and little nourishment. ● Murder – public executions are used to not only persecute dissidents, but act as a method to control the people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfzLVkyQC5A 0:18 – 1:40https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfzLVkyQC5A UN report 2013

31. ● Enslavement – There are a reported 50,000-90,000 labors that visit 40 countries to work. NK relies on the revenue earned through these workers, taking 98 % of their wages which net the DPRK between $230 million to $2.3 billion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JisOJslChYM 0:00 – 2:09 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JisOJslChYM ● Torture – Torture is a common technique to acquire false confessions which legitimizes harsh sentencing. ● Rape – used as a form of terrorism and control, “The Commission received testimony that while rape of minors is severely punished in the DPRK, the rape of adults is not really considered a crime.” ● Forced abortions – woman that leave the country become vulnerable to human traffickers. If caught they are potentially sold as sex slaves or wives. If becoming pregnant and repatriated, they are subjected to abortions (mixed race, see persecution bellow). http://webtv.un.org/meetings-events/human-rights-council/commissions-of-inquiry-hearings/watch/human-rights-in-north-korea-excerpts-from-the-public-hearings-of- the-commission-of-inquiry-23mins/3339582047001 11:57-14:20 http://webtv.un.org/meetings-events/human-rights-council/commissions-of-inquiry-hearings/watch/human-rights-in-north-korea-excerpts-from-the-public-hearings-of- the-commission-of-inquiry-23mins/3339582047001 ● Persecution of: political, religious, racial and on gender grounds – ideologies that don’t revere the Kim Dynasty are potentially destabilizing. The possession of bibles, foreign media or reading of SK propaganda have severe penalties. UN report 2013

32. Beijing does not stand against the UN claims, but the do against international action. ● China is indeed, NK’s strongest ally. It wouldn’t send a good signal if China shunned an partner completely. ● Perhaps if China did allow action against NK on its HR status, it would open the window for scrutiny to target them. China’s take on NK’s HR

33. Is this all a ruse? ● Eight north Koreans give voice about the misleading lies the West has been spinning http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/06/30/north-korea-denies-abuses-pkg-ripley.cnnhttp://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/06/30/north-korea-denies-abuses-pkg-ripley.cnn 0.00-2:30 North Korea’s Take

34. Questions: 1. Do you agree with most analysts that NK will not relinquish its nuclear weapons? ◦ Does Pyongyang really need the bomb for regime survival as NK experts typically suggest? ◦ Apart from tough sanctions, are there other, better means to try to bring NK to the negotiating table? 2. Will North Korea ever use its nuclear weapons preemptively? ◦ Wouldn’t doing so be suicidal? ◦ Is Kim Jong-Un therefore the “Boy Who Cried Wolf”? 3. Is it really in China’s interest to maintain the NK state? ◦ Will China comply with the sanctions or will it be (illicit) business as usual? ◦ Should NK collapse, are China’s concerns regarding refugees and prospects of a pro-American unified Korea valid? 4. How can volatility on Korea be quelled, how much sway does PRC have? 5. Is accepting THAAD a slippery slop for China, what’s next? ◦ Is power politics a good choice for China, like we saw during the Cold war? 6. Where is Japan and Russia in these scenario, what roles do they play? 7. Is it our place to criticize North Korea when we suffer from so many domestic issues? ◦ How is the NK leadership able to continue suppressing human rights? 8. Should NK’s warning be heeded? Debate Questions

35. ● https://www.nknews.org/2013/07/north-korea-will-never-give-up-its-nuclear-weapons-lankov/ ● https://www.nknews.org/2015/11/if-north-korea-will-never-give-up-its-nukes-what-can-the-u-s-do/ ● http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/opinion/stopping-north-koreas-nuclear-threat.html?_r=0 ● http://time.com/4252372/north-korea-nuclear-missile-attack/ ● https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/08/17/north-korea-has-threatened-a-u-s-attack-for-years-why-arent-you-scared/ ● http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk03600&num=12721 ● http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/31/sp-north-korea-nuclear-weapons ◦ https://news.vice.com/article/a-former-us-nuclear-negotiator-says-north-korea-is-one-pandemic-away-from-collapse ◦ http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/north-korea-virtually-lose-nuclear-pyongyang-sanctions-160308063242318.html ● http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/07/u-n-panel-north-korea-used-chinese-bank-to-evade-nuclear-sanctions/ ● http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-28/china-s-welcome-action-against-north-korea ● http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1922570/we-wont-tolerate-instability-beijings-warning ● http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/01/don-expect-china-ice-north-korea-160128061357218.html Works Cited (Nuclear Issue+China Factor)

36. ● http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/2205346/North-Korea-blows-up-nuclear-facility.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/2205346/North-Korea-blows-up-nuclear-facility.html ● http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/obamas-north-korea-policy/ ● http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/25/opinion/25iht-edlankov.html?_r=2 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/25/opinion/25iht-edlankov.html?_r=2 ● https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron ● https://books.google.co.kr/books?id=ZmLTBwAAQBAJ&pg=PA177&lpg=PA177&dq=1990s+US+international+security&source=bl&ots=RKijCedniW&sig =yQBBh6hljMbsaDje79OtayM_hXo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8mvGP_8bLAhVk3KYKHfiDB2IQ6AEIPTAH#v=onepage&q=1990s%20US%20internati onal%20security&f=false ● http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-hard-truth-about-thaad-south-korea-china-15295 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-hard-truth-about-thaad-south-korea-china-15295 ● http://www.businessinsider.com/china-thaad-system-2016-2 http://www.businessinsider.com/china-thaad-system-2016-2 ● http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/12/report-north-koreapubliclyexecutes80people.html http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/12/report-north-koreapubliclyexecutes80people.html ● http://www.dw.com/en/un-to-discuss-north-korea-human-rights-abuses/a-18896292 http://www.dw.com/en/un-to-discuss-north-korea-human-rights-abuses/a-18896292 ● https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/03/15/dispatches-chinas-tired-line-human-rights-north-korea https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/03/15/dispatches-chinas-tired-line-human-rights-north-korea ● https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2013/05/un-ramps-up-scrutiny-of-north-korea-s-catastrophic-human-rights-record/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2013/05/un-ramps-up-scrutiny-of-north-korea-s-catastrophic-human-rights-record/ ● http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-koreans-forced-labor-abroad_us_563187f5e4b0c66bae5b004f http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-koreans-forced-labor-abroad_us_563187f5e4b0c66bae5b004f ● http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/china-s-repatriation-of-north-korean-refugees http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/china-s-repatriation-of-north-korean-refugees ● http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10645015/North-Korea-10-starkest-paragraphs-from-UN-report.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10645015/North-Korea-10-starkest-paragraphs-from-UN-report.html ● http://time.com/4092091/north-korea-forced-labor-un/ http://time.com/4092091/north-korea-forced-labor-un/ ● http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-using-thousands-north-korean-slave-labor-construction-industry-report-2019131 http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-using-thousands-north-korean-slave-labor-construction-industry-report-2019131 Works Cited (THAAD+Human Rights)