1. 목요 Class Reading  국회와 선거제도  국회 외교위원회

2. Money in Politics  “Show me the money!”  potential candidates  mobilization (volunteers, staff, voters, etc)  getting the message out (ex: TV ads, radio, the media market)  getting-out-the-vote (“GOTV”) ( 투표독려활동 )  Money is necessary, but not sufficient! 2

3. Money in Election Campaigns  Money does not guarantee victory, but helps a lot.  Public funding in presidential elections  Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ), $62 million spent for Senate race Mayor Bloomberg (NY), $109 million spent for NY mayor Meg Whitman (R-CA), $141.5 million spent for CA governor  Millionaire candidates in the 2010 election  http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/millionaires.php?cycle=2010 http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/millionaires.php?cycle=2010 3

4. Average Spent by Winning Challenger, 1974-2010

5. Goldstein and Freedman (2000) Campaign spending subject to “diminishing returns” = the more dollars spent, the less gained by each additional $ 5

6. The Decision to Run  the Incumbency Advantage  why so formidable?  Name recognition (People like their congress(wo)man)  Redistricting (Increase in safe seats and decline in marginal seats)  More resources for expanding their base of support (Casework and pork barrel)  Scaring off serious opposition (“issue-uptake” theory) 6

7. But, Still “Running Scared?” I  Safe seats vs. marginal seats (party control of Congress at stake)  The impacts of margin of electoral victory on legislative behavior = “marginality hypothesis”  “Legislators elected by narrow margins pay closer attention to constituency interests than colleagues elected with plenty of votes to spare.”  ”______________________” Hypothesis  “Senators are more vulnerable than House members” Senators’ reelection rate = 78%, compared to House = 92% 7

8. House vs. Senate Reelection Rates, 1946-2010

9. “Running Scared?” II  Why senators more vulnerable than representatives? Unable to develop the kinds of personal ties to constituent States more likely to have balanced party competition than districts Senate seats attracting a larger portion of experienced, politically-talented, and well-financed challenger Senators more readily associated with controversial and divisive issues 2008 was the first election to send an incumbent senator to the White House since 19_____ 9

10. 국회와 선거제도

11. 국회와 선거제도 ( 엄기홍 )  대표성에 대한 논의들  신탁모델, 대표위임모델, 정당위임모델, 유사대표모델  투표제도의 기본원칙  보통, 평등, 직접, 비밀선거  한국 국회의원 선거제도의 특징

12. Electoral Rules and Party System  How a nation gets its party system is complex; rooted in its historical development and when and how the franchise expanded  Single-member districts in U.S. and Britain tend to produce two-party or two-plus party systems; encourage coalescing of parties because, if too many candidates, your party may never win!  Proportional Representation (PR) encourages parties to split; more likely that your party will win at least a few seats and can use them to form coalitions 12

13. Electoral Rules  Main Voting Systems  No two countries have identical voting systems, but there are three main types each with its own variations  plurality–majority  proportional representation (PR)  semi proportional 13

14. Electoral Rules ■ Plurality–majority 1. Simple plurality/”First-past-the-post”  The winning candidate gets more votes than any other (a simple plurality), no matter how many candidates and how small the winning margin.  Usually used in conjunction with single-member districts, so the combination of single member and simple plurality is often known as the SMSP system.  Ex) three candidates with 40%, 30%, and 20%, then the winner is the 40% candidate. 14

15. Simple plurality/”First-past-the-post” Advantages and Disadvantages  Its advantage is simplicity and direct democratic accountability, because each district is represented by only one representative.  SMSP is also likely to produce single-party governments with stable majorities, and this favors clear lines of political accountability.  The disadvantage is disproportionality in election results. The SMSP system favors large parties and discriminates against small ones, to the extent that voting for one of them is often seen as a ‘wasted’ vote ( 사표 ). 15

16. Any Law-like rule in political science? 16 the “law of supply and demand” in economics What about in political science? Any law-like axiom in politics? “Duverger’s Law”  A French political scientist Maurice Duverger (1951)  A law-like impact of electoral system on coalition- building pattern in elections  “First-past-the-post” (i.e. plurality, or “winner-takes- it-all”) electoral system brings about two-party system.”

17. Electoral Rules ■ Plurality–majority 2. Second ballot  The second-ballot (SB) system tries to avoid the disproportionality problem of SMSP systems by requiring the winning candidate to get an absolute majority of the votes (i.e. 50 percent + 1) in the first round – or if not, a second run-off ballot (election) is held between the two strongest candidates.  The advantage is simplicity.  the disadvantage is the need for a second ballot shortly after the first.  The French use this system in presidential elections. 17