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Congressional Results 2012
Opportunities to discuss course content Thursday 10-2 Friday 10-12
Learning Objectives Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.
Goals of Congressperson The Primary Goal is to Get Elected The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)
PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT
Partisanship is Most Important The biggest factor in Congressional election Even in open seat elections
Safe Seats Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering Majority Minority Districts
Residential Self Selection
INCUMBENCY Major Factor 2
Incumbency Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places A resource that provides many benefits
Incumbency The incumbent dominates the discourse The incumbent has the advantages It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose
Incumbent Benefit #1 - Money Attract Money at Higher Rates The War Chest
Incumbent Benefit #2 - Name Recognition We Vote For Who We Know What can Incumbents Do?
Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers Run against Losers Scare off Good Challengers
Spending My Own Money
Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?
HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE
Stop Playing the Game Get too Old Become inattentive Scandal
Strategic Challengers can Alter This They run when national trends favor their party They have local advantages as well They also have the most to lose!
How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns Attract Money Can turn National Issues into Local Ones Are Quality Challengers as Well
What is a Quality Challenger A person who has formerly/currently held elective office Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency
INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE
Senate Incumbency Senators are More vulnerable
GOING INTO 2012
Not a Wave Election
Why no wave? We hated Congress, but no one specifically The economy still wasn’t great The negative campaign Obama’s Popularity (too close to 50%)
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The Results (D+8)
The Importance of Partisanship Republican Districts voted Republican, Democratic Districts voted Democratic Balanced districts split almost evenly
Republican Exposure The Republicans had more exposure Very Few Toss-up Seats Probably would have survived a wave.
The Democrats Actually Won the Nationwide Popular Vote Did not Take Back the House – Redistricting – Wasted Votes
Winners and Losers 2012
Redistricting The process of redrawing districts within a state State legislatures control the battle Very Political
The Role of Redistricting A Result of the 2002 election GOP Legislatures controlled 202 seats Democratic Legislatures controlled 47 seats
GOP Redistricting Tactics Create safer seats Remember the lesson of 2002
Republicans Have A Structural Advantage Democrats are more compacted Democratic areas are overwhelmingly democratic Democrats are “safer”
Regional Voting Democrats New England California West Coast Republicans South Upper Midwest
Money and the House
The 2014 Election Not Many Toss-up Seats Difficult to Reassemble Presidential Coalition 6 year Itch
The Dynamics The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend – 23 Democratic Seats – 10 Republican Seats Democrats have a 53-47 lead
Where Were They?
What Explains the Results Incumbency Partisanship Candidate Factors
Indiana Supposed to be safe GOP Richard Mourdock. The GOP Loses by 6%
Missouri Clair McCaskill is very vulnerable Cross-over spending in the primary Todd Akin loses by 15%
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown Warren outraises Brown by 14 million Brown is the only incumbent to lose
Open Seats Maine North Dakota Montana
A Banner Year for Political Money 1 Billion is Spent Outside Money is important, but not crucial
Money isn’t Everything Self Financed candidates still lose Poor David Dewhurst
Looking ahead to 2014 The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t Democrats have More exposure 7 seats are from states where Obama won
Can the Democrats Expand? Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”
Voting For Congress. Learning Objectives Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. Understand the.
Voting for Congress The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology.
Congress and Fundraising. Opportunities to discuss course content No office hours today or Wednesday Thursday 10-2.
Congress and Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The Retirement Advantage The Partisan Advantage.
Congress II 3/19/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
To Accompany Comprehensive, Alternate, and Texas Editions American Government: Roots and Reform, 10th edition Karen OConnor and Larry J. Sabato Pearson.
Context of Congressional Elections Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot.
Congress and Fundraising. Opportunities to discuss course content Thursday 10-2 Friday
Strategic Politicians. Number of House seats held by President’s party,
What Happened The Election of Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral.
Chapter 13 Part One Choosing the Congress Instructor: Kevin Sexton Course: U.S. Political Systems Southeast Missouri State University.
CONGRESS. In this unit we will cover… Powers of Congress Incumbency and Congress Organization of Congress Responsible Party Model.
The Election Process Pathway to the Presidency Nomination (primary season) and election (general election); two separate steps, two strategies.
Congresspersons, Elections, and Congressional Apportionment.
The Future The Election of Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.
AP US GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS CHAPTER 10 THE ELECTION PROCESS.
Setting the Stage. Office Hours When – Today – Friday – Monday 10-2 Doyle 226B.
Primary Elections: › Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election. Closed.
Setting the Stage. Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B.
AMERICA = YOU PARLIAMENTARY = PARTY PAGE 231 Presidential –More people vote –Candidate must work harder and spend more –More competitive –Winner gets.
Congressional Elections. Constitution Senators –Up for election every 6 years –Originally selected by state legislatures –17 th Amendment, 1913: Direct.
Voting 11/9/2011. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – discuss and critically.
CHAPTER 14 The Campaign Process. Nomination Process Once a candidate declares his/her intention to run their focus is on winning the nomination of their.
Running for Congress CJ Cayanan, Meagan Crisostomo, Gina Nakagawa, Brian Yoo.
VOTING AND ELECTIONS. Voting and Elections n Campaigns and Elections –primaries –general elections n Campaign financing n public opinion polling n Voting.
AP Review Political Beliefs & Behaviors. Officeholder seeking reelection Officeholder seeking reelection Incumbent Incumbent.
The Composition of the US Congress There are 100 senators and 435 representatives. There are 2 senators from each state. The number of representatives.
Elections and Voting. Election Day USA Federal elections are held on the first Tuesday in November of every even numbered year Every federal election.
Congress Intro Play the game!. Why become a Congressman? Power ◦ Influence public policy Money ◦ $174,000 a year Receive generous retirement and health.
CHAPTER 8 Elections & Campaigns. Running for Federal Office Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Senate. Over 90% re-election rate in the House.
PART 3: American Political Practice. VOTING and ELECTIONS July 9 th, 2003.
Getting Elected to Congress Considering the information above, why is it that the vast majority of the members of Congress have been reelected to multiple.
Representation 17 November The Tracking Polls as of November 3 Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/30=11/2) Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2) Obama.
CHAPTER 13 – THE ELECTION PROCESS MR. LIPMAN’S AP GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS POWERPOINT.
목요 Class Reading 국회와 선거제도 국회 외교위원회. Money in Politics “Show me the money!” potential candidates mobilization (volunteers, staff, voters, etc)
Congressional Elections. Incumbency Factor Individuals who already hold office usually win reelection Especially in House (over 90%) Senate somewhat more.
The Last Word: Assignment 7, 8 due Tuesday Consider: Why do we have the Electoral College?
Congressional Elections Paul E. Peterson. Key Fact about Congressional Elections: Incumbency Advantage Definition: the electoral advantage a candidate.
The Congress Lesson 1. Congress: Senate and House of Representatives.
Congressional Elections. Questions to consider: Who would want to run for Congress? How do they get elected? What kinds of candidates are advantaged by.
Using the 2010 Midterm Elections to Teach Across the Curriculum Presenter Gary Copeland University of Oklahoma Presenter Gary Copeland University of Oklahoma.
U.S. Government What do you know about Congress? List 3 things:
Voting and elections Step 1 Have to be registered—2 weeks before Increase turnout? Ease registration, voting? Require voting? Holidays?
To Accompany Comprehensive, Alternate, and Texas Editions American Government: Roots and Reform, 10th edition Karen O’Connor and Larry J. Sabato Pearson.
"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" NBC.
The Electoral College United States of America Presidential Election.
Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Chapter 11 CONGRESS.
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