1. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 1 FAST IFA Meeting at IASS 2006, Paris, October 22, 2006 Presented by Kyle Olsen

2. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 2 FAST FAST Contribution to CAST Safety Plan Introducing and integrating the Prospective component of safety Accident Analysis JSATS “Historic” Accident JSIT’s Safety Enhancements CAST Plan Incident Analysis Process “Historic” Safety Metrics JIMDAT Process Emerging Risk Changing Risk Enhancements Aviation System Changes Present In Master Factors? Yes No External Changes Identify Future Hazards Identify Causal Factors Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging) Master Contributing Factors B. Smith; 2/7/06 CAST Plan Revision Operational Data Analysis (NASA ISDSR) “Diagnostic” Predictive Analysis (FAST & FST) “Prognostic” Remaining Risk JSA/IT

3. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 3 FAST FAST Charter Vision Identify possible future hazards and develop mitigating action before the hazard is introduced into the aviation system. Mission Enable customers (individuals or organizations) to evaluate their proposed change to the aviation system, identify hazards that may be created by that change, develop and implement mitigating action. Goal To prevent future aviation accidents by mitigating hazards before they are created.

4. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 4 FAST Summary of FAST Products: A prioritized list of Areas of Change [AoC]. A structured methodology reflected in a FAST handbook. Two applications/tests of the methodology: –Recommendations resulting from the study of the AoC “Increasing Crew reliance on cockpit automation”, e.g. related to the Air Ground Space System [AGS] –Results from the study of future hazards generated by the concept of operations for 2011developed by EUROCONTROL. A FAST website.

5. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 5 FAST FAST Area of Change (AoC) Categories CountCategory 29Aircraft 11Maintenance, Repairs, Overhaul 19Operations 21Crew 7Passenger 10Organization 12Authority 22Air Navigation System 7Airport 35Environment 5Space Operations ___ 179Total Areas of Change as of 24 February 2006 GLOBAL AVIATION SYSTEM AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, REPAIRS, OVERHAUL OPERATIONS CREW PASSENGER ORGANIZATIONAUTHORITY AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM AIRPORT ENVIRONMENT SPACE OPERATIONS The FAST continuously solicits submission of new, candidate AoC’s via the process shown in Backup Charts. Submissions should be made to Rudi den Hertog, Chief Engineer, Fokker Services, FAST Co-chair, rudi.denhertog@stork.com

6. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 6 FAST Definitions CUSTOMERS are organizations that have authority to either recommend or implement changes to the Global Aviation System STAKEHOLDERS are organizations that may be impacted by an envisioned change to the Global Aviation System EXPERT TEAM Drawn from Customer & Stakeholder organizations Selected by FAST and Customer collaboratively based on the envisioned future being considered Must have specific expertise associated with the future being evaluated No experience with FAST method required initiate changes affected by changes

7. FAST Core Team Responsibility Commission Expert Teams Advocate the FAST Philosophy Guide FAST Facilitators Customer/ Stakeholder Responsibility Expert Team Responsibility Enhance the FAST Method 3. Assemble an Expert Team 1. Responsible Party Proposes Change(s) to Global Aviation System; recognizes need for systematic prediction of hazard(s) associated with changes and need to design potential hazards out of system or avoid or mitigate hazard(s) 4. Understand Customer Requirements and Future of Interest 10. Inform FAST & Customers Regarding results 2. Define Scope of Expert Team Hazard- Identification Study 9. Formulate Recommendations & Identify Watch Items 8. (optional) Identify Mitigations & Effects of Areas of Change on Mitigations 7. Enrich Hazards by Evaluating Interactions with Areas of Change 5. (optional) Identify Intrinsic Hazards Within Future of Interest 6. Identify Areas of Change Pertinent to Future of Interest Enhance and/or Modify Planned Changes Maintain Futures & Watch Items Maintain Areas of Change Repository FAST Methodology / Process

8. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 8 FAST http://fast.jrc.it/ Under development http://fast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Final URL FAST Website

9. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 9 FAST FAST Website contents FAST members Part –Phase 1,2,3 reports, incl appendices –AoC 2005 update exercise –FAST 1 through 25 Minutes of meeting Working documents [today this is on JAA site] Public Part –Generic Presentation –FAST handbook –Full AoC list –Phase 3 report summary

10. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 10 FAST  FAST was tasked to identify future hazards EUROCONTROL’s Concept of Operations (ConOps) for 2011.  Two workshops held with European and US experts in June and July 2006. EUROCONTROL’s FAST – Workshops

11. FAST FAST – ConOps Evaluation: From EUROCONTROL final comments Lessons learned Very useful exercise Hazards identified may allow improving ConOps Pass results to SESAR, maybe a FAST customer FAST methodology requires further development Subsequent development FAST Handbook upgraded Clarification of AoC use for: Hazard Identification / Enrichment Mitigations Link to classical Risk Assessment Methods Transferable methodology

12. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 12 FAST New Areas of Change [emerged during the ConOps exercise] ANSP Regulatory oversight. ATC-aircraft emergency communication Air space redesign Mode C transponder codes Reduced ground staffing: Remote tower, Automatic Weather Observation System (AWOS) Security vs. Safety: lawmaking Information to passengers: pilot not in the loop Composite resistance against lightning strikes Volcanic ash damage to engines EMI (bit flips) through Solar flares

13. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 13 FAST

14. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 14 FAST Area of Change (AoC) Submission Process Continuous Call For New Aoc’s FAST Core Team External Group or Individual Candidate AoC Comparison with Existing AoC List New? Evaluate for Potential to Enrich Existing AoC’s no Refine Wording & Add Descriptive Comments Review for FAST Consistency Okay? yes Concatenate to Existing AoC List yes no

15. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 15 FAST Future FAST Customers European Safety Strategy Initiative (ESSI), with 2 options: –FAST becomes a Working Group of EuroCAST, and then of helicopter and GA Safety Teams. –The FAST methodology is used within the three ESSI Safety Teams. Current status: –Working group of EuroCAST under ESSI pending approval of new terms of reference –Two basic work plans were identified during the ESSI meeting on October 12, 2006: a)Continue to work on the AoC’s, prioritize them and suggest ways forward in prospective safety; b)Assist organizations/people/customers in using the FAST method.

16. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 16 FAST Future FAST Customers (cont.) FAST has been approached by the Flight Safety Foundation Gate-to-Gate safety team* investigating interfaces between actors in the aerospace system. Question: –Can FAST construct one or more future’s using the Areas of Change for gate-to-Gate to verify their methodology [methodology developed from historic accident data sets] –Under investigation, suggestions: help GTG introduce AoC’s into methodology, check for differences in results or use FAST method, including AoC’s in prospective manner SESAR, JPDO / NGATS, others? Web-based requests for FAST analysis * includes Boeing, FAA, NLR, etc

17. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 17 FAST FAST Composition Co-chairmenRudi den HERTOG *ASD/Fokker Services Yves MORIEREASA SecretaryJean Pierre MAGNYEMC/JAA Core TeamDaniele BARENZINIEC/Joint Research Centre Jacques BEAUFAYSEurocontrol (replacing Jos) Carlo CACCIABUEEC/Joint Research Centre Gerard GUYOT *SFO/Airbus Richard KENNEDYBoeing R&TE, Madrid Jos KUIJPEREurocontrol Alexander KRASTEVEurocontrol Rolf LILANDIFALPA / SAS Norway Peter MALADYERA / EASYJET Andrew McCLYMONT *IFA Michel MASSONBoeing R&TE, Madrid  EASA Kyle OLSEN *FAA/CAST Michal ORLITAHoneywell Joe ROMANOSKYBoeing Commercial Dick de Saint Aulaire * JAA Brian SMITH NASA Steve SMITH FAA Maite TRUJILLOBoeing R&TE, Madrid (alt for Richard) * also member of JSSI Steering Group

18. FAST for IFA Meeting at IASS 06, Paris, Oct 22, 2006. 18 FAST Promotion of FAST by the IFA Technical Committe and FSF will be appreciated Thank You