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FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 1 FAST European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (ECAST) Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) Generic Presentation.

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Presentation on theme: "FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 1 FAST European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (ECAST) Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) Generic Presentation."— Presentation transcript:

1 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (ECAST) Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) Generic Presentation – “Draft”March 2007 A European Safety Strategy Initiative (ESSI)

2 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST PURPOSE Explanation –JSSI/ESSI/ECAST context –What is FAST? –What it’s not… Present “FAST Method” Provide overview of process & results


4 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST HISTORY – JSSI Terms of Reference Reduce the annual number of accidents and fatalities in each JAA member state and its operators irrespective of the growth in air traffic Focused safety agenda with deliverables Partnership + cooperation + communication + implementation Structured complementary approaches, leading for: –Historic FAA/CAST –Prognostic JAA/JSSI Reference JAA website

5 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FOCUS AREAS JSSI Design Related Future Aviation Safety Occupant Safety & Survivability

6 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST HAZARD IDENTIFICATION Historic & current operational data exist Expertise and experience exist Current analysis tools can: –Identify hazards –Define their causal factors –Establish frequencies (risk) –Provide learning Establishes the baseline Provides validation for predictive risk assessment techniques No operational data exist, but conclusions can be drawn from current & future trends No experts or experience exist but domain experts know “what keeps them up at night” Qualitative hazard identification: –Predict likely hazards –Identify possible causal factors Quantitative risk assessment adds: –Refinement of probable causal factors & estimate of frequencies –Bases for focused studies using computational & human-in-the-loop simulations Retrospective (Historic & Diagnostic) Predictive (Prognostic - FAST)

7 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Strategic Use Heterogeneous INCIDENT & OPERATIONAL DATA Monitor, codify, classify, & merge Identify Patterns Statistical & Causal Analysis Convert to Information Evaluate frequency & severity INTERVENTION&INNOVATION - Design - Operations - Investment - etc. HISTORIC FEEDBACK LOOP RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL SUGGESTED BY FAST Heterogeneous ACCIDENT DATA Gather, codify, classify, & merge Identify Events Historic & Causal Analysis Convert to Information Determine contributing factors & severity DIAGNOSTIC FEEDBACK LOOP PROGNOSTIC “FUTURES” FEEDBACK LOOP Systematic measurement, hazard qualification & quantification and/or scenario-specific Monte Carlo simulations Prediction & Refined Causal Analyses RAPID RESPONSE Tactical Use Codify, classify, & merge Identify Trends Future Hazard Analysis Convert to Information Predict domains & severity FUTURE CHANGES

8 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FAST Charter Vision Identify possible future hazards to the safety of aviation in order to prevent those hazards from appearing within the future aviation system. Mission Enable individuals or organizations and in particular the ESSI/ECAST, to evaluate proposed changes to the aviation system, identify hazards that may be created by such changes and by interaction effects, and subsequently develop mitigating actions. Goal To prevent aviation accidents by eliminating or mitigating future hazards.

9 European Aviation Safety Agency January 31, 2007 ESSI by EASA has succeeded to JSSI by JAA During the JAA – EASA transition, EASA has begun to build up the European Strategic Safety Initiative (ESSI) in 2005 ESSI foundation meeting took place on April and the JSSI-ESSI handover was performed on June

10 European Aviation Safety Agency January 31, 2007 The 3 ESSI Pillars 3 pillars Commercial Aviation (ECAST)  Working with CAST  Partnership Rotorcraft (EHEST)  Working in IHST  Partnership General Aviation (EGAST)  Safety Committee  Promotion Consistent approach to safety risk management

11 European Aviation Safety Agency January 31, 2007 ESSI / ECAST Construction 27 April 2006 Foundation group: Bring the parties together 13 July 2006 Making a charter 12 October 2006 Agree foundation documents 13 & 14 December 2006 Establishing a work programme FAST reconducted as a Working Group of ECAST 2007 Full schedule of activities


13 European Aviation Safety Agency January 31, Assess and Prioritise Accident Risks and Causal factors in Europe (yearly revised) C O M U N I C A T I O N COORDINATIONCOORDINATION Mid Term Programme Review Identify and Review Safety Programmes 3. Define Safety Performance Metrics 4. Define Safety Enhancement Objectives 5. Institute Safety Programmes 6. Make Recommendations for Safety Enhancements 7. Perform Costs Benefits Analysis 8. Develop Action Plans 9. Implement Action Plans and Monitor Implementation 10. Monitor Action Plans Efficacy to Achieve Safety Objectives ECAST Process Main FAST Input: Top Emerging and Future risks

14 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FAST Summary of Results A structured methodology incorporated into a formal handbook. A prioritized list of Areas of Change [AoC]. Two applications/tests of the methodology: –Recommendations resulting from the study of the AOC “Increasing Crew Reliance on Cockpit Automation”, e.g. related to the Air Ground Space System [AGS] –Results from the study of future hazards generated by the concept of operations for 2011developed by EUROCONTROL. A FAST website

15 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST PROBLEM APPROACH Does it exist yet? Has it caused an accident? Is it known? Discovery Processes Intervention Processes Prognostic Design of new Aviation System components or practices prevents Historic e.g. Accident Investigation discovers Diagnostic e.g. ASAP, COSP, ISDSR, LOSA, FOQA, ISDSR, ASRS, SRB. ECCAIRS, ODA etc. discovers Prognostic e.g. Emergent, FAST, etc. discovers Diagnostic prevents informs intervention e.g. Regulation, Product Improvement, CAST, ECAST, company safety (e.g. SRP) processes, FSF/ALAR tool kit, Human factors tool kit etc. Historic more accidents prevents = yes, 0 = no

16 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FUTURE AREAS OF CHANGE NOW Past AoC a phase out of Gen I transports AoC c AoC b AoC d AoC g AoC j advent of very-light jets AoC l AoC h AoC e AoC f AoC i AoC k t Spectrum and Magnitude of Areas of Change Affecting the Future Aviation System Introduction of UAV’s

17 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST IMPORTANCE OF IDENTIFYING AREAS OF CHANGE… The future is not necessarily a direct extrapolation of the past. Present and near-term safety interventions that are intended to prevent future accidents caused by previously known hazards may not be enough to prevent new types of accidents from happening in the future. A mid-1990’s study by a major manufacturer looked at accidents in which airplane systems were involved in an accident or where they could have prevented the event and did not. It was found that in approximately 70% of the accidents involving airplane systems, the original design assumptions were inadequate for the situation existing at the time of the accident due to changes in… - the aviation system - airplane operational usage - personnel demographics - evolving infrastructure or other considerations.

18 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST CHANGING NATURE OF ACCIDENTS “Technological innovations are changing both aircraft and the airspace in which they operate. Cumulatively, these technological changes aim to increase reliability throughout the aviation system and vastly improve safety in the skies. These changes include systems designed to move aircraft more efficiently in the air and on the ground, methods for providing pilots and ground controllers with better information about traffic and weather conditions, and improvements in aircraft components and design. “The growth in aircraft system complexity is exponential in many areas, with the most significant trend being the inter- connectedness of systems. Current-generation aircraft operate as highly integrated systems with extensive cross-linking. As system complexity grows, so does the concern about hidden design flaws or possible equipment defects. “Accidents involving complex systems and events present investigators with new and different failure modes that multiply the number of potential scenarios they must consider. The historically common causes of accidents are occurring less frequently, leaving more challenging accidents to diagnose.” * * - Safety in the Skies Personnel and Parties in NTSB Aviation Accident Investigations-Master Volume, Chapter Three: Emerging Aviation Trends: Potential Impact on Aircraft Accident Investigations, By: Liam P. Sarsfield, William Stanley, Cynthia C. Lebow, Emile Ettedgui, Garth Henning, published in 2000

19 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Areas of Change: Some Principles Changes must be understood as broadly as possible. To bring consistency and coherence to the process, Areas of Change are grouped by categories. The diagram on the next sheet illustrates the eleven broad categories of Areas of Change affecting aviation identified by the FAST

20 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FAST AREAS OF CHANGE CATEGORIES CountCategory 29Aircraft 11Maintenance, Repairs, Overhaul 19Operations 21Crew 7Passenger 10Organization 12Authority 22Air Navigation System 7Airport 35Environment 5Space Operations ___ 179Total Areas of Change as of 24 February 2006 GLOBAL AVIATION SYSTEM AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, REPAIRS, OVERHAUL OPERATIONS CREW PASSENGER ORGANIZATIONAUTHORITY AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM AIRPORT ENVIRONMENT SPACE OPERATIONS The FAST continuously solicits submission of new, candidate AoC’s via the process shown in Backup Charts. Submissions should be made to Rudi den Hertog, Chief Engineer, Fokker Services, FAST Co-chair,

21 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST What is an Area of Change The Global Aviation System (GAS) is in fact a "system of systems." Examples of "systems" include –airplanes, –air traffic control systems, –company processes, and –regulatory systems. The future GAS will be fundamentally different than what exists today because changes affecting the GAS will continuously occur as the system evolves into the future. The ongoing process of change including both evolutionary and sudden, disruptive events or paradigm shifts must be considered for effective safety risk management.

22 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST 2020 situation Integrated Air Ground Space System Operates during all phases of flight Communicates through data link Civil aerospace challenges Increased aerospace capacity Better respect of the environment (“sustainable growth” approach) improved safety Air Ground Space System Distributed multi agent system Free routing/free flight New airspace classification 4-D dimensional trajectories

23 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Importance It is important that aviation practitioners who are designing future systems have foreknowledge of potential future hazards. A change to any one system could affect other systems. Interactions of future changes to several systems could likewise affect the whole. These changes could have adverse impacts on the safety of the Global Aviation System. The goal of "discovering" future hazards is to eliminate, avoid or mitigate hazards in the future that may arise as a result of the changes. This will reduce the risk of future incidents and accidents.


25 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST OBJECTIVES of the FAST method Studying potential future changes in the Aerospace System in order to : Identify relevant Areas of Change [AoC] either within or external to the aviation system Identify Hazards, both inherent to the AoC as well as those arising from interaction with other AoC’s Develop recommendations to eliminate hazards or mitigate their effects, such as: Tools to analyze and mitigate the hazards including studies and simulations to quantify the risks of identified hazards Providing probable hazard information to influence entities that shape the future

26 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS Concept of considering a comprehensive set of “Areas of Change” affecting aviation safety Using a broad representation of domain experts representing diverse affected organizations within an Expert Team hazard- discovery setting looking for direct and indirect hazards Direct- as well as Indirect hazard(s) identification, with indirect hazards resulting from interaction among AoC’s within a novel future operational scenario - identifies hazard catalysts not ammenable to computational modeling Maintaining and providing to the aviation community an up-to- date repository of AoC’s, possible aviation futures, Technology Watch Items & hazards. Offering a Future Hazard Analysis method that can be used universally by any organization Having a FAST Core Team ready to assist Customers using its Future Hazard Analysis method

27 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST What the FAST is and is not… The FAST process is a systematic approach to identification of: –Wide range of changes affecting aviation safety (AoC’s) –Systemic vulnerabilities and hazards within highly integrated systems –Boundary aspects not only within aviation but external to it that may be the catalysts for future hazards including common cause factors and interactions The FAST process is not a risk assessment method - that is, it doesn’t estimate relative frequency of hazards. The FAST generally does not recommend or develop safety interventions - FAST can feed Risk Assessment and Risk Management processes in which safety interventions are developed and implemented, and action efficacy is monitored. These are best left to the customers.

28 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST COMPOSITION MEMBERS from DGAC, CAA-UK, CAA-NL, ENAC, EASA, Civil Aircraft Inspection Board of Poland, ASD, EC/Joint Research Centre, EUROCONTROL, ERA/EASYJET, IFALPA/SAS Norway, IAPA, IFA, Air Transport Association of Canada, NASA Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Fokker, Rockwell Collins CORE TEAM is driving force, meeting approximately quarterly


30 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST DEFINITIONS: CUSTOMERS are organizations that have authority to either recommend or implement changes to the Global Aviation System STAKEHOLDERS are organizations that may be impacted by an envisioned change to the Global Aviation System EXPERT TEAM Drawn from Customer & Stakeholder organizations Selected by FAST and Customer collaboratively based on the envisioned future being considered Must have specific expertise associated with the future being evaluated No experience with FAST method required initiate changes affected by changes

31 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST DEFINITIONS, cont. TECHNOLOGY WATCH ITEMS A repository of tell-tale advances in technology and other relevant factors that may indicate which possible aviation future is unfolding and thereby signal if postulated direct hazards and/or indirect hazards (interaction hazards) are coming about. To be revisited after significant events (incidents & accidents) and be part of risk assessment plans. Maintained for the benefit of the worldwide aviation community similar to the CAST Problem Statements.

32 FAST Core Team Responsibility Commission Expert Teams Advocate the FAST Philosophy Guide FAST Facilitators Customer/ Stakeholder Responsibility Expert Team Responsibility Enhance the FAST Method 3. Assemble an Expert Team 1. Responsible Party Proposes Change(s) to Global Aviation System; recognizes need for systematic prediction of hazard(s) associated with changes and need to design potential hazards out of system or avoid or mitigate hazard(s) 4. Understand Customer Requirements and Future of Interest 10. Inform FAST & Customers Regarding results 2. Define Scope of Expert Team Hazard- Identification Study 9. Formulate Recommendations & Identify Watch Items 8. (optional) Identify Mitigations & Effects of Areas of Change on Mitigations 7. Enrich Hazards by Evaluating Interactions with Areas of Change 5. (optional) Identify Intrinsic Hazards Within Future of Interest 6. Identify Areas of Change Pertinent to Future of Interest Enhance and/or Modify Planned Changes Maintain Futures & Watch Items Maintain Areas of Change Repository FAST Methodology / Process

33 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST OVERVIEW of PROCESS & RESULTS Work progressed in phases: –Phase I (Oct/99-Sep/00): Established methodology, identified 157 changes affecting the aviation system. –Phase II (Nov/00-July/01): Prioritised Areas of Change –Phase III (Oct/01-Jan/04): Analysed highest priority Area of Change: Increasing Reliance on Flight Deck Automation –Phase IV (Feb 05-Mar06) : Re- check/update AoC list, develop Process Handbook/Generic Presentation/Public Website, –Phase V (Mar 06-July 06: ConOps 2011 analysis [ANS-1].


35 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST TOP 4 AREAS OF CHANGE PRIORITISED & CATEGORIZED FROM CURRENT LIST OF 179 Increasing Crew Reliance on Flight Deck Automation (Aircraft) Emergence of New Concepts for Airspace Management (Air Navigation System) Introduction of New Technologies with Unforeseen Human Factors Aspects (Crew) Proliferation of Heterogeneous Aircraft with Widely-varying Equipment and Capabilities (Aircraft)

36 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST SYNTHESIS FROM TOP 20 AREAS OF CHANGE 1.Introduction of new air, ground, and satellite-based automated systems 2.Increased heterogeneity of: aircraft types & flight capabilities, equipage & software, airspace utilization approaches, and development directions & timelines for airborne, ground, and space-based aviation support systems 3.Increase in absolute numbers of aviation operations and corresponding reduction in safety margins as a result of: increased demand, decreased separation and more frequent operation in or near adverse weather conditions 4.Ensuring adequate maintenance of air- and ground-based systems in an environment of increased outsourcing of work, increased complexity of hardware, firmware & software, and a shortage of qualified maintenance personnel Common threads as they appeared within the 2001 top 20 AoC synthesis.

37 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST PHASE III OUTPUT Analysis of highest priority AoC: Increasing Crew Reliance on Flight Deck Automation: –Identification/prioritisation of hazards –Development and prioritisation of recommendations addressing most important hazards –Introduction of Technology Watch Items –Present the methodology used and lessons-learned

38 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST  ConOps is the Eurocontrol Concept of Operation for 2011  FAST was tasked to identify future hazards in ConOps  Two workshops held (6-9 June and July 2006) with European and US experts Eurocontrol’s FAST – ConOps Workshops

39 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST CONOPS CONTENT Concept of Operations 2011  Description of the ATM System in the Main Changes  The ATM Components, OI’s and System Enablers  The ATM Operational Model  The Key Enablers – SWIM, the Network Operations Plan and Collaborative Decision Making  The Principles of the Layered Planning Process  High-Level System Capabilities  Business Impact Statements  Annexes  The Actors – Roles and Responsibilities  Operational Scenarios and Use cases Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management Airspace Organisation & Management Airspace User Operations Airport Operations Information Management & Services Separation Assurance Synchronisation

40 FAST FAST – ConOps Evaluation: From EUROCONTROL final comments Lessons learned Very useful exercise Hazards identified may allow improving ConOps Pass results to SESAR, maybe a FAST customer FAST methodology requires further development Subsequent development FAST Handbook upgraded Clarification of AoC use for: Hazard Identification / Enrichment Mitigations Link to classical Risk Assessment Methods Transferable methodology

41 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Under development Final URL FAST Website

42 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST An essential element of a safety strategy  Future hazards can not be entirely extrapolated from the past  There is a need to address future changes and hazards in safety today  FAST offers a method of worldwide interest

43 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION For FAST Output Status see

44 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST BACKUP CHARTS

45 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Acronyms ADREPICAO Accident/Incident Data Reporting System AoCArea of Change developed by FAST AGSAir Ground Space System ANSPAir Navigation Service Provider ATCAir Traffic Control AWOSAutomatic Weather Observation System CASTCommercial Aviation Safety Team (North America) CICTTCAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team ConOpsIn FAST context: Eurocontrol’s Concept of Operations for 2011 ConOpsGeneral: air traffic providers concept of operations ESSIEuropean Safety Strategy Initiative ECASTEuropean Commercial Aviation Safety Team (EuroCAST) ECCAIRSEuropean Co-ordination Centre for Aviation Incident Reporting Systems

46 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Acronyms - continued FASTFuture Aviation Safety Team GTGGate-to-Gate ICAOInternational Civil Aviation Organization JAAJoint Aviation Authorities (Europe) JSSIJAA Safety Strategy Initiative JSATJoint Safety Analysis Team (CAST) JSITJoint Safety Implementation Team (CAST) JPDOJoint Planning and Development Office (part of NGATS in USA) NGATS Next Generation Air Transportation System (USA) SESARSingle European Sky ATM Research Programme TCASTraffic Collision Avoidance System TAWSTerrain Avoidance Warning System

47 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST FAST Contribution to CAST Safety Plan Introducing and integrating the Prospective component of safety Accident Analysis JSATS “Historic” Accident JSIT’s Safety Enhancements CAST Plan Incident Analysis Process “Historic” Safety Metrics JIMDAT Process Emerging Risk Changing Risk Enhancements Aviation System Changes Present In Master Factors? Yes No External Changes Identify Future Hazards Identify Causal Factors Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging) Master Contributing Factors B. Smith; 2/7/06 CAST Plan Revision Operational Data Analysis (NASA ISDSR) “Diagnostic” Predictive Analysis (FAST & FST) “Prognostic” Remaining Risk JSA/IT

48 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Area of Change (AoC) Submission Process Continuous Call For New Aoc’s FAST Core Team External Group or Individual Candidate AoC Comparison with Existing AoC List New? Evaluate for Potential to Enrich Existing AoC’s no Refine Wording & Add Descriptive Comments Review for FAST Consistency Okay? yes Concatenate to Existing AoC List yes no

49 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST

50 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST Examples of global Air Ground Space system Technology Watch Items Theme I Development of system using Artificial Intelligence (e.g. neural nets, fuzzy logic). Development of “intelligent” aircraft (with systems of smart sensors, microprocessors and adaptive control that monitor operator performance, environment and automatically avoid hazardous situations) Emergence of computational capabilities and monitoring systems that could replace conventional air traffic control functions Development of “intelligent” vehicles (e.g. smart cars) as cross fertilisation may affect aviation Collaborative decision making (CDM); Computer Support to Cooperative Work (CSCW) eSafety of road and air transport and eHealth, Multimodal Interfaces, Semantic-based knowledge systems, technology-enhanced learning

51 FAST Generic Presentation March, FAST If at some point in the past, a study of the potential future hazards related to Reduced Vertical Separation Minima (RVSM) had been conducted, the Expert Team performing the analysis would likely have needed to generate the following description of the potential consequences of implementation of RVSM in order to extract potential future hazards… "Assuming that each airplane has physical enhancements and each crew has procedures to properly manage vertical separation less than current rules, we believe that increased collision hazard is not likely. There however is a slight hazard increase due to wake turbulence descending from overhead airplanes and causing loss of control of encountering aircraft. We therefore recommend that there a study be done of all existing airplanes to determine the likelihood of a strong cruise wake descending to flight levels occupied by other aircraft, minus the altitude uncertainty. Altitude uncertainty must be considered and quantified in the study however, because actual separation may be much less than the candidate reduced value. We also recommend review of TCAS/ACAS protection with the FAA to ensure that the TCAS will not significantly contribute to collision likelihood. We want to avoid TCAS causing an accident. We hear however that the Military will be fielding new navigation technology, GPS, which if applied to civilian airplanes, will significantly increase the lateral precision with which airplanes will fly intended airways. Airplanes will then be closer to each other vertically and laterally. In this case, collision and/or wake vortex upset risk may significantly increase. If you see intentions to adopt GPS technology for civil transport navigation (watch item), then we recommend that studies are conducted and the Industry agrees to mitigating practices such as intentional cross-track stagger. Care should be taken when doing so to ensure that wind direction is considered in the study." Example* of how Customer Vision of Future would have been used in past… * - purely hypothetical; not representative of FAST recommendations

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