1. EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN Petrina Rowcroft Development Economist Basin Development Plan Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Disasters in Asia and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development

2. ContentContent Context MRC approach to flood management and mitigation Impact Assessment

3. Mekong River Commission In 1995, the four governments of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam signed an Agreement for the Sustainable Development of the Lower Mekong Basin

4. VisionVision “ Economically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound ”

5. GoalsGoals Enhanced economic and social well-being Improved living standards of the basin inhabitants Optimisation of the multiple use and mutual benefits of all riparians Minimising the harmful effects that might result from natural occurrences and man- made activities

6. DEALING WITH FLOODS MRC focus is on: – Regional and transboundary water-related issues and impacts. – Local impacts dealt with by line agencies together with international and civil society organisations. MRC provides supplementary services – Predictive assessment using various basin development planning scenarios (BDP) – Analysis and assessment of flood-related impacts (FMMP) – Balanced approach …

7. Flood Benefits After-flood abundance of fish Flushes the Mekong Delta to protect from salinity intrusion Aids fish migration to spawning grounds and recharge of Tonle Sap Great Lake Deposition of essential sediments for soil fertility Often attracts large amounts of foreign investment for flood rehabilitation

8. Flood Costs Loss of life (> 800 people during 2000 floods) Loss of agricultural productivity (measured using agricultural potential) Damage to infrastructure Impediment to navigation and trade

9. Flood Management & Mitigation Programme (FMMP) Flood Management & Mitigation Strategy – formulated in response to 2000 floods Based around four groups of management areas to reduce flood risk and flood hazard across the floodplain

10. Land-use Planning Measures are aimed at ‘ keeping people away from the floodwaters ’ Structural Measures are aimed at ‘ keeping floodwaters away from the people ’ Flood Preparedness Measures recognise that - no matter how effective the above types of management measures are – an overwhelming flood will always occur. Flood Emergency Measures deal with the aftermath of such an event by ‘ helping affected people to cope with floods ’. Flood Management

11. Integrated Floodplain Management Requires an integrated and coordinated mix of management measures Must reflect: – the flooding, flood risk and flood hazard characteristics of the particular floodplain – the specific social and economic characteristics of the flood-prone communities – environmental and resource management plans and policies for the floodplain.

12. Flood Preparedness 23 hydrological monitoring stations provide real-time data on observed and forecast water levels Observed levels published daily on MRC website (www.mrcemekong.org)www.mrcemekong.org Also provide weekly flood forecasts and yearly data

13. Coming Soon … Establishment of a regional FMM Centre Studies, policy discussions on land use planning and infrastructure development in relation to flood impacts (BDP) Flood proofing measures Flood forecasting, warning and dissemination services Mediation services Analysis of risk and impacts Strengthening of capacity to manage flood emergencies

14. Basin Development Plan (BDP) Working towards the formulation of a management strategy and plan for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) Scenario-based planning approach – External conditions (e.g. climate change) – Human interventions Requires multi-level predictive assessment – current focus is on strategic level

15. Impact Assessment in the BDP Tools being developed for assessment of impacts resulting from scenarios – Decision Support Framework (DSF) – RAOM – SEA – SIA – MCA and expert opinion Results used to focus planning efforts by ranking development scenarios (e.g. most preferred to least preferred)

16. BDP shortlistBDP strategy Regional initiatives National plans BDP longlist MRC Agreement Consultation & Negotiation Assessment criteria MCA Assessment framework Compare & rank ScenariosAnalysis of impacts Expert opinion RAOM SEA DSF Scenario formulation WaterEnvironmentSocial & economic

17. Impact analysis Impacts of different scenarios are described using expert opinion and models (DSF) – hydrological – environmental – social – economic Impacts may be poorly understood / little data available / difficult to quantify – particularly for social and economic impacts – work with existing knowledge – qualitative / descriptive vs quantitative DSF DSF and other sources

18. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Floods in BDP Significance of impacts related to flood timing, flood depth and flood duration DSF provides hydrological data and simulation models to show extent of floods under different development conditions Knowledge base contains spatially referenced data (GIS) which assists in prediction of socio-economic and environmental impacts Most socio-economic assessment done outside of the DSF

19. Flood depths

20. Flood durations

21. Examples of spatial data in the DSF – Inundation map in Aug & Sept 2000 – Major cities in the LMB – Village centres (Lao & Cambodia)

22. DSF Application to environmental and socio- economic assessment Environmental impacts by reference to changes in flow conditions Impacts on land-use potential and value by reference to the extent, duration and timing of flooding on lands of different classes

23. Potentially impacted population (PIP) Geo-referenced population data obtained from village-level census (population and number of households) in Cambodia and Laos. Flood duration data (flood defined as > 0.5m) Sum of population * flood duration = no. of person days flooding Provides clear indication of where impacts most felt and therefore provides a focus for basin development planning in terms of flood management and mitigation measures

24. Flooding DSF gives changes in extent and duration of flooding, and information about the type of land flooded (land use, wetland type) NO information on impact on ecosystems impact on fish production value of reduced damage from floods as a result of dams ….etc Flooded area (ha) Trey riel catch Before dam After dam Flooded area (ha) Cost of flood damage Before dam After dam

25. Environment - wetlands GIS in DSF gives location of wetlands, and some information on type NO information on response of wetland plants or animals to changes in flow how changes would affect subsistence use value of wetland produce and how this would change

26. Social Impacts GIS in DSF gives location of villages population some information on social conditions (from Census, provincial level) NO information on subsistence livelihoods resettlement options and preferences cultural values ethnic minorities …..etc

27. Economic impacts GIS in DSF gives some information on land use, irrigation NO information on value of agricultural production (at present) non-agricultural industries value of power generated costs of relocation

28. BEYOND THE DSF …

29. Social Impact Assessment BDP currently in process of developing indicators and assessment framework based on Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches (Assets, Capabilities, Vulnerability, etc) Participatory – requires understanding of how different people relate to different resources (differential impacts on gender, ethnic groups, income groups, etc)

30. Economic Impact Assessment Quantitative assessment of relative costs and benefits of flooding – Changes in agricultural productivity (based on potential value) – Loss of life – Replacement costs of damaged infrastructure – Opportunity costs of limited/no access to infrastructure – Impacts upon subsistence users (opportunity costs of limited access to/availability of natural resources) – Upstream and downstream impacts (e.g. loss of fish has implications on suppliers of fishing gear and fish production facilities) – Environmental-economic impacts difficult to quantify as relationships not yet fully understood (e.g. floods and fish productivity)

31. Potential for application of ECLAC Methodology?

32. Thank you