1. Food and Agriculture Issues and Research Needs Energy Climate Change Mitigation Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University mccarl@tamu.edumccarl@tamu.edu, http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl Presented at Panel on Research Priorities of the Food, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment of 2050 February 2010 Climate Change Effects & Adaptation Animal Disease

2. Climate Change the challenge Warming Associated with a lot more Atmospheric CO2 Emissions Rising rapidly

3. The Arapahoe Glacier in Boulder County, Colorado, has shrunk dramatically since it was photographed in 1898. Measurements collected since 1960 suggest the glacier has thinned by at least 40 meters since then. It is the ultimate source of Boulder’s main water supply. 18982003 http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier Climate Change What is going on

4. Water at issue plus snow pack. 18982003 http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier Climate Change Evidence and projections

5. Big consequences for ag viability – 25% less acres 10% less animals Climate Change Evidence and projections

6. Damage – Coastal http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19526141.600- huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise. Collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5-6 m http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Greenland_contribution http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh

7. Climate change and future Research Big decisions need to be made Info needed Info types Size and type of effects Costs Methods of Ag Adaptation effectiveness and type, benefits/costs dissemination methods and costs Methods of Mitigation Energy only – ag effects Sequestration, Emission control, Offset Policy implementation

8. On to Bioenergy

9. Bioenergy – Why care Scarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost Onshore Offshore Global Conventional Oil Production May Peak Soon US has as has Texas Graph of Oil Production Source: Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Newsletter as in Wikapedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

10. Bioenergy – Why care Scarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost Lots of Oil But recovery cost will increase Source: International Energy Agency Resources to Reserves Report http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil_gasSUM.pdf

11. Bioenergy – Why care Source of CO2 and greenhouse gasses – climate change http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html Emissions share US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html Most emissions from energy 2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

12. Bio Energy Research Can it be an Alternative to fossil fuels Methods Cost GHG implications Market and Env implications of Ag bioenergy strategies Potential supply Price effects Environmental Effects Policy Analysis and design

13. On to Animal disease

14. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks January 2006 to July 2006 Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis Countries Where an FMD Outbreak Occurred in 2009 Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis Animal Disease why care? Recent outbreaks

15. Animal Disease why care? Recent outbreaks History shows vulnerability UK FMD outbreak 6.25 million dead animals, loss in billions of $ BSE in England 150 dead citizens, Fear and beef demand US and Canadian BSE Lost export markets US Avian Influenza events Slaughtered animals in 10,000’s, Export market closures Asian AI events Animals and people South American FMD Changed nature of beef trade

16. Animal Disease Research How do we best protect – info needed Disease Vulnerability Estimation Categorization of effects Strategy development and evaluation for Anticipation Prevention Detection Response Recovery Policy Analysis (protect, treat, compensation, movement etc)