1. Global Warming Energy Challenges CMAQ Presentation January 9, 2006

2. Overview Greenhouse effect –Historic carbon emissions / CO 2 rise –Forcing models / temperature predictions Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F) Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak –Future and current energy challenges Energy equity – the road ahead

3. Solar Energy and earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

4. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm

5. 250 yrs of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?

6. Rising CO 2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html

7. Carbon Emissions and CO 2 Carbon burned => CO 2 Linear from 1850 to 2000 - ppm CO 2 =2.55 e 10-4 *M tons C + 297 ppm (r 2 *100=99%) ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO 2 –33% into the oceans Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years? A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO 2 from total carbon burned

8. http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm Global Warming - the 20 th Century

9. Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

10. Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100 0 F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years

11. Consequences of Warming Thinning of polar ice caps –Thawing permafrost / release of methane Slowing of the thermohaline cycle Rising sea level, perhaps quickly Extreme weather events –Extended regions of drought –Extremes of temperature / duration –Extremes of storms and hurricanes All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!

12. The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade, and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/

13. Storms on the Move Katrina moving across Florida in late August 2005 finds warm water in the Gulf of Mexico And grows from a category 1 to a category 5 hurricane in less than 2 days!

14. Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

15. Oil Production – Reserves Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005

16. Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html

17. Energy Equity Burning oil is burning money! Build an energy infrastructure with equity Solar energy is primary, not alternative! –$25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’ –Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 for local installers Built in America, by Americans, for America, what could be more economic? http://www.solarelectricpower.org/

18. Summary Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle Forcing models – temperature lag Effect of warming just one degree Peak oil – declining energy production Energy Equity – and the road ahead –Our single biggest challenge –Our single biggest opportunity

19. References http://www.realclimate.org/ http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/ http://www.solarelectricpower.org/ http://www.nrel.gov/ http://www.eia.doe.gov/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil