1. A JAPAN THAT CAN SAY MAYBE: The Foreign Policy of the DPJ 21 th July, 2009 Woodrow Wilson International Center Daniel Sneider, Associate Director for Research

2. Agenda Agenda 1.The Foreign Policy debate in Japan 2.The DPJ Internal Composition 3.The DPJ leadership and its views 4.DPJ Position on Key Issues 5.Conclusion: A Japan that can say Maybe

5. Evolution of Yoshida Doctrine End of the Cold War First Gulf War - Japan’s failure to act First North Korean nuclear crisis 1993-94 Rise of China North Korean missile test 1998 Second North Korean nuclear crisis 9/11 and Iraq War US Global redeployment Minesweepers to Gulf PKO law (1992) Defense of areas surrounding Japan Indian Ocean dispatch Iraq deployment Missile Defense Joint air defense command JDA to Ministry

6. Towards a new consensus The “dual hedge” -- expand military capability, use of force, global security role AND improve relations with neighbors by playing more active role in Asian regionalism, environmental protection, and other use of soft power. Maintain close alliance with US but balance more with Asian tilt

7. The DPJ and foreign policy The DPJ - a coherent foreign policy? What do DPJ leaders think about foreign policy? Key issues for the DPJ DPJ’s new “Goldlilocks consensus”

8. DPJ Delegation House of Representatives, 2009

9. The Left

10. The Right

11. The Center

12. The DPJ Leadership Yukio Hatoyama, DPJ President Katsuya Okada, DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa, DPJ Acting President Naoto Kan, DPJ Acting President

13. Grandson of former PM Ichiro Hatoyama Left LDP in 1993 to form Sakigake Member Hosokawa cabinet 1993 Co-leader of DPJ from formation in 1996, party head from 1999- 2002 Elected from his father’s constituency in Hokkaido in 1986 Yukio Hatoyama

14. Hatoyama on use of force Supported limited use of collective defense right to defend ally, friendly forces in field during UN mission but rejected dispatch for missions not directly related to Japan’s security without UN authorization “In approving Japan’s right of collective defense, there is a concern that Japan will be entangled in one-sided use of force by the U.S. in a global range…However, the right of collective defense is Japan’s right under international law, and does not mean Japan is automatically obliged to join missions with its allies.” 2008

15. Katsuya Okada Elected from Mie in 1988, former Takeshita faction, LDP Joined Ozawa and Hata to form Shinseito in 1993 President of DPJ in 2004-2005 Son of founder of retail giant AEON group

16. Okada on foreign policy Advocate of nuclear disarmament and non- proliferation as key element of Japan FP Calls for US and other nuclear powers to renounce first use, and no use against non- nuclear states, creation of nuclear-free zone in NEA “Priority should be given to Asia first, and then to the Japan-U.S. alliance.” “Japan should pursue affluence in an East Asian community, centering on the Asian region.” “Decades have passed since the SF treaty was signed, and the postwar period has already ended. It is now necessary to discuss whether the concentration of U.S. bases on Okinawa is normal.” Sekai, July, 2009

17. The DPJ Left Yoshita Sengoku Elected from Tokushima for 5 terms Former Socialist Party leader Former head of Policy Affairs for DPJ Critic of Ozawa

18. Sengoku on foreign policy Need to create a system of “co- governance” with US, China, Japan and Korea, to deal with energy, environment, health, other issues Japan should focus on Asia, not on global role Supports PKO deployments but not military forces in NATO style in Afghanistan (Indian Ocean mission OK) Advocates creation of PKO training center in Asia, with support of Korea and China

19. The DPJ Right Seiji Maehara Elected from Kyoto for 5 terms Former LDP, left with Hosokawa to form Japan New Party in 1993 DPJ President 2005- 2006 Defense expert, possible Defense Minister

20. Maehara on foreign policy Strong supporter of US- Japan alliance Opposed extension of MSDF refueling deployment as “un- transparent” but supports non-military role in Af Calls for new blueprint to replace Futenma deal Supports exercise of right of collective self-defense clearly defined by law “We must not turn China into an enemy. Of course we must not leave ourselves unprotected in the face of China’s increasing military power and to this end we need to firmly maintain the Japan-US alliance. However, regarding China as an enemy and creating an environment that instigates a military buildup would not be to the advantage of anyone in this region.” 2005 speech to AEI conference

21. The Kuromaku -- Ichiro Ozawa Elected from Iwate in 1969 (father’s seat) Former Home Minister, Deputy chief cab sec, Sec Gen of LDP Formed Shinseito in 1993, Shinshinto Formed Jiyuto in 1998 Merged with DPJ 2003 DPJ President 2006- 2009

22. Ozawa in “Blueprint” (1993) Given the two above conditions -- that Japan’s neighbors are still alarmed by any independent action taken by Japan, and that America will be working actively for the maintenance of peace -- Japan’s path becomes self- evident. The most rational and effective way for Japan to contribute to world peace is by cooperating with America. The view that the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty has become obsolete with the end of the Cold War is shortsighted and grievously mistaken. Japan must emphasize the Japan-US relationship and develop a SDF centered on the United Nations…We must make the leap from our passive “exclusive defense strategy” to a dynamic “peace- building strategy.”

23. Ozawa on US-Japan (2009 interview) Japan and US should have a “more equal” relationship “The problem is that the Japanese government doesn’t have its own global policy. Its governing rule is that they should not offend the US and spend as little money as possible.” Opposed Iraq war “The illogic of the Bush administration concerns me the most. Even though Iraq kept saying they had no WMD, Washington kept insisting they had WMD. But in the case of North Korea, which admitted they had WMD, Washington is following a different policy.”

24. Ozawa on defense issues Believes Japan should bear primary burden of self-defense, with US support Deployment of SDF overseas without UN authorization is unconstitutional and beyond scope of self- defense If UN sanction, Japan can assist US military actions, as in Afghanistan US forces in Japan that are for purpose of defending Asia should remain -- ie 7th Fleet, Kadena Air Base -- along with surge facilities “Within that context, to the extent that Japan can replace the function of US forces, isn’t it natural that the US should have fewer forces deployed in Japan?”

25. DPJ Position on Key Issues Overseas deployment of SDF US forces and bases in Japan Relations with Asian neighbors The “history” question

26. SDF Deployment Overseas DPJ supported initial deployment of MSDF to Indian Ocean Opposed extension of mission on grounds it was being used to support Iraq war, not original “anti-terrorism” mission Opposed Iraq war and SDF deployment to Iraq Demands transparency on deployments and Diet authorization, including anti- piracy mission

27. US Forces/Bases in Japan Supports Okinawa on opposing relocation of Futenma air station to Camp Schwab and calls for re-examining Host Nation support for realignment and SOFA

28. Ozawa on US forces “It would be fine to maintain Kadena air base if it is important for regional defense. But the helicopter base at Futenma in Okinawa is not being used for that purpose” Interview with author, March, 2009

29. “Japan as a member of Asia” Legacy of Asianist ideas in Japan remains strong DPJ opposes “Big Japan” version of Asianism but harkens back to “Small Nipponism” of Ishibashi Tanzan Emphasis on improving relations with China, Korea and Southeast Asia

30. East Asian regionalism Key DPJ foreign policy advisors -- Terashima, Tanaka -- are advocates of more active leadership role in creating regional organization in East Asia Some interest in regional security structures in East Asia

31. DPJ on History issues DPJ approach to history issues is clear break from LDP Revisionist views not held Murayama/Hosokawa as precedents for DPJ on history DPJ officially opposed to visits to Yasukuni shrine, calls for removal of Class A war criminals

32. Ozawa on Gen Tamogami “It is a terrible thing, very unfortunate. It is because politicians are irresponsible…Officers in the military are not allowed to participate in politics…It is the same type of thinking that we had in the Showa period.”

33. Ozawa on Japan’s wartime aggression First of all, in the war Japan caused terrible harm to China and others on the continent. We need to first honestly acknowledge that past. I would immediately resolve the Yasukuni problem. The Class-A war criminals will be removed from the shrine; that’s the issue that caused the Emperor to change his position about visiting it. It would be just a shrine for the war dead. March, 2009

34. Foreign policy consensus in Japan Dual hedge -- growing security role in alliance with US and balancing ties to China, Korea, Asia -- is growing consensus in Japan that crosses party lines

35. Consensus issues Hostile view of North Korea Support for missile defense Support for US- Japan security alliance Concern over rising China

36. Obama and the DPJ DPJ differences focused on Bush administration and its policies Policy convergence between DPJ and Obama administration is greater than with LDP Some key areas of convergence: nuclear disarmament, Green Deal, multilateralism

37. A Japan that can say Maybe What does anti-American mean? If pro- American means always saying yes to Americans, certainly the DPJ is not pro- American. If anti-Americanism is insisting on the abolition of the alliance, then no one in the DPJ is anti-American. Seven or eight times out of ten, we will say yes to the United States. But one or two times, we may say no, or let’s see. Kiyoshi Sugawa, DPJ Policy Research Committee

38. Thank you