1. P ÁZMÁNY U NIVERSITY On the Policy and Politics of Climate Change Session II David Ellison Institute for World Economics (Budapest) Comments Welcome ( Comments Welcome (EllisonDL@Gmail.com)EllisonDL@Gmail.com

2. Goals for Today Questions? Discuss papers and other administrative details Finish Discussion of the Problem Tipping Effects Tipping Effects Forests Forests Where do all the GHG’s come from? GHG’s: Types, Warming Potentials, Lifetime Policy Approaches: CC Mitigation and Adaptation

4. Tipping Effects Major potential tipping points? Arctic Ice Cap? Arctic Ice Cap? Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007 Permafrost and Methane Permafrost and Methane AMC (but with opposite impacts) AMC (but with opposite impacts) Glacier melt Glacier melt Forests Forests

6. Forests What are the climate regulation roles of Forests? Carbon sequestration Carbon sequestration Biodiversity protection Biodiversity protection Temperature regulation Temperature regulation Water…? Water…? Flood moderation/protection Flood moderation/protection

7. Forests Two kinds of Problems Threaten Forests IAS and Outbreak Species IAS and Outbreak Species Mountain Pine Beetle example Mountain Pine Beetle example Forest Dieback Forest Dieback What is the temperature limit for forests? IUFRO 2009: “carbon-regulating services of forests could be lost entirely under a global warming of 2.5°C or more” Forest defoliation data (ICP) ICP Hungarian example: Beech tree

8. Global Change in Forest Cover

11. Global Drought Potential

13. Hungarian Example

17. Organizations You Should Know About IPCCIPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Conservative by definition? Conservative by definition? UNFCCCUNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC Consensus institution Consensus institution Voluntary commitments Voluntary commitments Kyoto Protocol: Annex I countries (commitments) Kyoto Protocol: Annex I countries (commitments)

18. Where Do All the GHG’s Come From?

19. Hungarian End-User Consumption/Emissions

22. Atmospheric Lifetime and Global Warming Potentials

23. How Should we Respond? Climate Change Mitigation? Climate Change Adaptation? Some combination of the two…?

24. Climate Change Mitigation Stop Using the Stuff Is this possible…? How much do we have to stop using…? How does this affect the daily livelihoods of people? Can it be done…? What are some of the barriers?

25. Climate Change Adaptation Protect Ourselves and our Environment from the Consequences of Climate Change Is this possible…? What do we need to protect against? How does this affect the daily livelihoods of people? Can it be done…? What are some of the barriers?

26. Thank you for listening…! Questions and Comments welcome: David Ellison (Ellisondl@gmail.com) Ellisondl@gmail.com