1. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY
Threat Evaluation & Weapon Assignment Centre of Excellence
JH van Vuuren
Introduction
4 December 2009
STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY
LEDGER Conference 2009, Innovation Hub, Pretoria, 3-4 December 2009

2. OVERVIEW Context of Work What is TEWA Decision Support?
Collaborators in Industry
Past & Current Activities
Activities in the Near Future
Medium Term Objectives
Lets start with a brief overview of the presentation…

3. Context of Work (GBAD) Targets Assets Radar Sensors Weapon Systems HQ
Main focus of our centre of excellence is within GBADS domain
In GBADS domain, number of physical elements include: ens. HQ

4. What is TEWA? DSS divided into two parts:
TE, behaviour of aircraft are analysed with respect to capability or intent to compute a threat value between every DA and target part
Stored as part of a prioritised list of threats passed on to the WA system
WA system takes the attributes of WS into account to assign available WSs to targets in the air

5. Collaborators TFDC Centre of Excellence UDDC STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY
Military
Academy
Although our work is theoretical in nature, we work in very close cooperation various collaborators in the military and industry to ensure that our work may be implemented as is realistic within a real-world environment
The work started with a collaboration between the US and Reutech Radar Systems, where we worked on development ADC software of GBADS project, analysis of EADS TEWA
ARMSCOR funds the theoretical study at Stellenbosch by means of LEDGER project and at Reutech a number of other project to investigated TEWA at higher levels of AD were started
Theoretical work at RRS is done in close cooperation with DPSS (department of CSIR) modeling and simulation group various projects will use testing of TEWA models within their VGD
Speak to other users of TEWA, for example IMT, who analysis the TEWA as part of Combat Management System on Corvette Frigates
We need to ensure that we can incorporate ADC doctrine and pre-deployment planning into TEWA, a number of work sessions with the UDDC in Kimberley
On TE system testing requirement realistic flight profiles, in this regards work OTB/TFDC and Military Academy in Saldanha (work sessions with pilots) and Epsilon
Also important how TEWA output is provided to the OIL, spoke to ERGOTECH

6. Past Activities: Two 4th Year Projects
Design of a weapon assignment system
Francois du Toit
Completed October 2006
The assignment problem
Grant van Dieman
Francois du Toit
Grant van Dieman
Over the past five years a number of honours and masters studies were conducted
Our two Honours projects were compled in October 2006
Francois du Toit work on the design of a WA system, as well as on the assessment of DAs to compute there priorties
Grant van Dieman dit a literature survey on the assignment problem in general

7. Past Activities: Masters Project 1
Real-time TE of Fixed Wing Aircraft in the GBAD environment
Jaco Roux
Completed April 2006
My masters project was the first within the TE domain
For my thesis I looked at the development of TE system architecture
As well as various TEMs, including deterministic and stochastic models
In a way my thesis served as a basis for the TE work to follow

8. Past Activities: Masters Project 2
Measuring the Threat Value of Fixed Wing Aircraft in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment
Andries Heyns
Completed March 2008
Andries finished is masters at the beginning of this year and was appointed by Reutech Radar Systems
He developed a number of deterministic TEMs and investigated the combination or fusion of these various TEMs
He also investigated a number of LOS algorithms within the TE environment and proposed his own hybrid version of quick LOS calculations

9. Past Activities: Masters Project 3
Real-time Weapon Assignment in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment
Cobus Potgieter
Completed March 2008
Cobus Potgieter finished his masters at the beginning of this year and is now also working for Reutech Radar Systems
He did some fundamental work on the design of a WA system in the GBADS environment
Proposed a number of simple WA algorithms for assigning weapons in real-time
He did this by focusing on the so-called SSHP of the WS, proposing filters to manipulate these values wrt terrain, weather and other factors

10. Past Activities: Masters Project 4
The Dynamic Weapon Target Assignment Problem in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment
Francois du Toit
Completed March 2009
Francois in the process of submitting his Masters project
He proposed a novel dynamic WTA formulation within the GBADS environment and
Investigated a number of solution techniques for this formulation, comparing solutions with regards to solution quality and time
He also continue the good work of his Honours with regards to defended asset prioritization and proposed a fresh way of computing DA priorities!
Francois description:
Multiple variations of the weapon--target assignment (WTA) problem, which consists of the problem of assigning multiple weapons to multiple targets (threats), is reviewed as well as some of the readily available solution techniques.
The SANDF method of asset prioritisation within asset assessment is described and two alternative methods of asset prioritisation are considered.
A novel, generic dynamic WTA problem formulation is formulated and a discussion of solution techniques for the problem formulation follows.

11. Past Activities: Masters Project 5
Modeling Rigid Body Kinematics with Splines
Jacques du Toit
Completed March 2009
Jacques is also in the process of submitting his masters thesis.
Jacques worked on interpolation algorithms (using B-splines) to describe the motion of aircraft through a number of waypoints.
By varying these waypoint a number of variations on similar profiles may be created which is very useful for simulation purposes.
Simple description:
A means to describe aircraft motion from observed data or create a potential motion from a collection of collection of waypoints was investigated. These data were interpolated or approximated using B-splines which provide a continuous description of the motion. Using this approach, it is possible to create variation on a particular profile simply by varying the waypoints. This method may be used to model the situation where a pilot repeatedly attempts to fly the same profile; ever trial generally looks the same, but contains small variations
Complicated description:
Describing a smooth trajectory of a point within a body in space requires the description of its position and orientation, relative to some reference frame, as a function of time. Assuming that particulars relating to the body may not be known but that successive points along its trajectory are available, it is possible to obtain a description of its motion by interpolating or approximating pertinent kinematic quantities, such as heading or speed, that may associated with these points. B-spline curves are used to interpolate both the translational and rotational components of motion with the latter described by unit quaternions.

12. Past Activities: Contract Research
[1] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2), pp [2] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2008, Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment, ORiON, 24(1), pp
At this stage I will hand over to Prof Jan van Vuuren to tell you more about our Contract Research

13. Past Activities: Conference Papers
ORSSA 2004 (1 presentation)
ORSSA 2005 (5 presentations)
LEDGER 2005 (1 presentation)
LEDGER 2006 (4 presentations)
ORSSA 2007 (8 presentations)
LEDGER 2007 (4 presentations)
IFORS 2008 (5 presentations)
LEDGER 2008 (1 presentation)
ORSSA 2009 (2 presentations)

14. Past Activities: Workshops I
Attack Technique Workshops
TFDC/OTB Workshop (2006)
Presented TEWA work
Lecture Lance Wellington
Obtained flight profile data
US Workshop I (2007)
Presentations by Jan Durandt
Sensitizing of flight profile data
Langebaanweg Workshop (2007)
Introduction to simulator
Informal discussion pilot
US Workshop II (2008)
Lecture John Erasmus
TFDC
Military
Academy

15. Past Activities: Workshops II
Asset Assessment Workshops
RRS Workshop (2006)
UDDC Workshop (2006)
Scenario Workshops
RRS Workshops ( )
DPSS Workshops ( )
UDDC Workshops (2008)
Operator in the Loop Workshops
IMT/Ergotec Workshop (2008)
UDDC

16. Current Activities: Masters Project 6
Solution methodologies for the classical assignment problem
Grant van Dieman
Grant will be submitting his thesis at the beginning of next year
He looked at a number of exact, heuristic, and meta heuristic WA solution methodologies
Compares these solution with regards to solution quality and solution time

17. Current Activities: Masters Project 8
Aircraft Membership Estimation in a Ground Based Air Defense Environment
Willa Lotz
Willa will submit his thesis in September next year
Working on a sub-model of our stochastic TE models
He will be analyzing real flight profile data by means of data-mining to obtain important characteristics of aircraft attributes required during TE

18. Current Activities: Masters Project 9
Evaluation of a fully fledged TEWA system in a GBADS environment
Basie Kok
Submitted November 2009

19. Current Activities: PhD Project 1
Design of a TE Subsystem
Jaco Roux
Submitted November 2009

20. Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System
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21. Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System
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22. Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System
Aircraft 1 (turquoise) attacks Asset 1 (bridge) at time 125 seconds
Its threat values start to rise sharply just before 100 seconds
Aircraft 2 (blue) attacks Asset 2 (airfield) at time 78 seconds
Its threat values are high and climb further just before 70 seconds

23. Future Activities: Masters Project 10
The incorporation of utility functions into the objective function of a weapon assignment problem
Objective is to be able to model various modes in which weapon assignment may take place (such as deterrence or attrition, for example) by means of utility functions
Danie Lötter (to Commence 2010)

24. Future Activities: Masters Project 11
Network threat evaluation and resource assignment
Assign the minimum number of resources required to protect a network whose nodes model military infrastructure components and whose edges model line of sight, or access possibility
Bernard Schlünz (to Commence 2010)

25. Future Activities: PhD Project 2
Coastal threat evaluation decision support by means of pattern recognition and pattern mining
Description: Management, filtering, classification and evaluation of intelligence data.
Jacques du Toit (Commenced January 2009)

26. Future Graduate Research Topics
Topic: Design of a resource assignment decision support system in a law enforcement environment
Description: Implementation of a decision support system to aid the law enforcement authorities with the assignment of resources.
Related honours studies: (hopefully one of the Honours students will enroll for the Masters programme)
Topic: Design of a resource assignment system on ADA regiment level
Description: Utility and assignment theory are used to design a decision support system for operators on ADA regiment level.
Related honours studies: (hopefully related Honours student will enroll for the Masters programme)
Topic: Design of a weapon assignment system in the GBAD environment
Description: A decision support system is designed to propose possible engagement between threats and effectors in real-time.
Related masters studies

27. Other Future Activities (2010-2012)
Contract Research & Interest Development Projects
Further build Centre of Excellence
Research Material
Postgraduate laboratory containing 12 PCs
Maintain and update equipment
Workshops
Workshops with various military partners
Workshops with various industry partners
Conferences
LEDGER
ORSSA
IFORS 2011
Additional to graduate student bursaries…

28. Medium Term Objectives
Long term planning, 4 years, to ensure the sustainability of the centre of excellence
Main objective to develop the first South African TEWA concept demonstrator for future GBADS phases (Ph2+) – in collaboration with Reutech Radar Systems
Secondary objectives to develop or support development of DSSs:
TEWA on higher levels of ADA
TEWA or TERA in the JAD environment
TE DSS during Operations Other Than War (OOTW)
Large Events
Peace Keeping
Task force assignment of SAP
TE DS for coastal surveillance