1. IPPR Conference - 26 October 2005 Building a consensus on national road pricing: the challenges ahead Session 3 The next steps for London Dick Halle Transport for London

2. What I shall talk about today: What has happened in London to date The effectiveness of measures introduced Forecast conditions with the need to take further action London as a pilot to help take national road user charging forward

3. Recent travel trends Trends in London population, jobs, traffic, public transport use, motoring costs, bus and tube fares Bus PKms Underground PKms Employment Population Minor Roads Motoring costs Major Roads Traffic Bus fares Underground fares

4. Recent road traffic trends Travel demand and distance travelled in London has risen in the past 10 years Traffic growth has been mainly in the: contra-peak direction outside the peak periods during the evening spreading to local roads During the working day, TfL and Boroughs have adopted interventions to facilitate people movement at the expense of vehicle movement in places – many restrictions dont then apply at the weekend Spare capacity is being filled up and where usage exceeds capacity we see congestion

5. Traffic congestion The main road network runs at capacity in specific locations at specific time In particular congestion is seen along strategic routes and in outer London town centres Saturday pm off peak IT IS graphWeekday am peak IT IS graph

6. Signal installations have increased from 3,100 to 4,750 from 1991 to 2003 An increase in pedestrian crossings and pedestrian phases at traffic signals A significant increase in bus lanes as part of bus priority A four fold increase in street / road works by utilities companies from ~78,000 to 350,000 per year between 1993 and 2002 Policy interventions have reduced road space Central London Congestion Charge Policy intervention that has increased space available

7. The Central London Congestion Charging Scheme Central London only

8. Two years on - continued benefits Congestion in zone down 30% Traffic entering charging zone reduced by 18% - cars down 33% However little change in number of person trips to central area 50–60% moved to public transport 20–30% divert round zone 15–25% other adaptations Net revenue £100m a year

9. Total traffic entering the charging zone – during charging hours Feb / Mar 2002 Spring 2002 Autumn 2002 Jan 2003 Feb / Mar 2003 Spring 2003 Autumn 2003 Spring 2004 Autumn 2004 Before ChargeWith Charge

10. Predicted travel growth Daily trips in London (m) An extra 4m daily trips by 2025 Note: The historic trend has been fuelled by a number of trends including strong employment growth, lower fares, increase in capacity on underground (JLE) and latterly sharply increasing bus use. Daily trips for main mode of transport used, includes all walking trips.

11. Future transport trends Notes: Includes planned schemes and major infrastructure projects i.e. CTRL, CrossRail, River Crossings, and Intermediate Transit Schemes, plus Congestion Charging Western Extension. Shows the projected increase in public transport if car trips remain at current levels. Shows the projected increase in car trips taking into account population growth and car ownership/household at current levels. Work is ongoing to further validate and understand recent and projected trend in car trips. Possible Impact of policies to limit car trips Projected increase in car trips Projected increase in public transport trips 7.6m 10.8m

12. Short Term: optimise Getting the most from the current network (2004 - ) Real time management Signal control Street and road works Enforcement Corridor management (2004 -) Bus Priority and enforcement Consistent approach to designing sections of roads through guidance Approval of schemes on the Strategic Road Network Funding integrated plans rather than isolated projects Medium Term: manage/ regulate demand Smart Measures (2004 onwards) Western Extension (2007) CLoccs re-let with tag and beacon?/ providing more flexibility and improved payment channels (2009/10) Charging in other congested areas? - tag and beacon schemes in congestion centres and on key strategic routes (2010 onwards) Actively encouraging modal shift Short, medium and long term strategies for people movement* Long Term: increase network capacity Distance-based/new Technology Charging? (2014 onwards) Channel Tunnel Rail Link (2008-) Congestion relief on LUL (2010) National Rail Capacity Improvements (2013) CrossRail (2015) and better land use policy *Links to the Freight Plan are also being made Optimising the road network

13. Tif – what role for pilot schemes To demonstrate: Opportunities for policy integration Options for new technology Impacts of charging outside Central London Public acceptability

14. Why a pilot in London? Any national scheme has to work in London 40% of Englands excess congestion is in London Wide mix of urban and inter-urban conditions Making use of TfLs experience and knowledge Design and assessment Operating and enforcing a real scheme Having a real customer base Charging technology – leading ground breaking trials Important issues for national/local accountability TfLs integrated transport responsibilities

15. Potential Benefits of Wider Road User Charging in London Distance based charging (2005 prices, values and deterrents), weekdays only All motor vehicles charged except buses, coaches and taxis Areachargeschanges base congestionchange in in traffic flowmins/kmcongestion Central60p/km-18%2.3-32% working day Inner30p/km-20%1.0-40% working day Outer15p/km-17%0.7-40% peaks only …this would facilitate economic growth and the London Plan

16. Technologies for Road user Charging London trials of alternative road user charging technologies have shown: Cameras plus ANPR effective solution available now for simple charging schemes. Tag and beacon technology for use in sensitive urban areas for more flexible charging eg charging by direction or time of day could be developed in short term (by 2009). Satellite and mobile phone location systems for specific link based distance based charging need further development for affordable accurate use in urban areas (beyond 2010).

17. Possible Timeline and Charging Basis 2005 CC Now Single zone Camera/ANPR 2009 Single zone Tags with Camera/ANPR Incentivised Tag take up 2010 Key centres Strategic routes Bridges Tags with Camera/ANPR Beyond 2010 GPS-based RUC across London Incentivised OBU take-up Re-procurement of CLoCCS/WEZ Options: 1. Single flat rate £8 charge per day 2. Charge by: time of entry/exit direction of travel class of vehicle Charge: £8 charge Per day Variable charges By: centre route bridge time of entry/exit direction of travel class of vehicle Example charge Rates: Central: 60p/km Inner: 30p/km Outer: 15p/km Unequipped vehicles Pay unattractive flat rate

18. Moving Forward Possible ways forward in London to help the DfT take national Road User Charging Forward are: Developing a demonstration cc scheme using tag and beacon in a congested area, of direct relevance to urban areas outside of London, packaged with improved public transport, walking and cycling, green travel plans and environmental improvements; Developing a London-wide GPS trial testing not only the technology, but with sufficient volunteers to test behavioural responses Sharing knowledge on: setting up and running a cc scheme, technology issues, public transport provision and regulation, other complementary measures, in developing pilots elsewhere We are currently discussing ways to tackle the growing transport problems London with the boroughs and other key stakeholders. We hope to be considered for TiF because we want to help inform the development of such a significant policy.