1. Tom Rye, Professor of Transport Policy and Mobility Management Transport Research Institute Napier University Edinburgh Transports contribution to GHG emissions, and how to reduce it

2. Presentation structure Trends and problems Backcasting Policy options and possible impacts International comparisons Conclusions

3. Transport emissions as proportion of total - Scotland CONTEXT Source: CHANGING OUR WAYS SCOTLANDS CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME, Scottish Executive 2006 Excludes international air travel

4. More detail Source: Scottish Transport Statistics 2007

5. Summarising… 22.7% of net Scottish emissions from transport 2005 (17.3% 1990) Transport second largest source of emissions 1990-2003 largest percentage increase in emissions by sector – from transport If current trends in transport use continue CO2 emissions in the UK will increase by 60% in the next 20 years (excl. int. air)

6. UK transport CO2 emissions 1952-2004 (source: DTI)

7. Addressing the problem Transport energy use is a product of: Population Vehicle technology Carbon intensity of fuel Mode choice Trip frequency Trip length Vehicle occupancy Limit discussion here to surface transport

8. Back-casting – emissions index - UK Source: based on Potter (2008)

9. So we need to: Reduce motorised trips Stabilise trip length Change vehicle technologies and carbon intensity of fuels Achieve mode shift Unlikely that any one strategy alone could achieve GHG reduction targets

10. Current Scottish transport policy trends National level – approx equal spend by TS on PT and roads Significant road and rail investments Bus use falling/stable outside Lothian and SPT areas Real bus fares stable since about 2000 SOA/NPF – less emphasis on transport at LA level; and almost no ring-fenced funds for tspt Land use planning – NPF, SPP17

11. Transport Spending Source: Transport Scotland Corporate Plan 2008 In addition SG spends £250m/yr mainly on air, ferry and BSOG

12. NTS and reducing emissions Reduce emissions – one of three key objectives of National Transport Strategy Methods proposed: Travel plan coordinators, smarter choices – influencing travel behaviour through mkting/awareness - £11m over three years Renewable Fuels Obligation Reviewing speed enforcement on motorways Bus strategy, to improve service quality

13. If transports GHG emissions are to fall significantly, we need… Shift to smaller vehicles (NL, Italy) – taxation? Incentives to use 2 nd generation biofuels Mode shift: Cheaper, more frequent PT esp within towns – with cheap integrated ticketing PT faster than car Safe infrastructure for walking and cycling – taking space from parked and moving cars Smarter choices Trip reduction, trip shortening: Land use encouraging slow modes, short distances Pricing/parking restraint

14. Mode shares compared

15. Specific example: Freiburg 550,000 people Public transport has priority Cars and parking restricted; P+R Tram network mostly new since 80s Integrate planning and transport March 84 - Enviro Season ticket (all modes) Prices and subsidy reduced - 70% farebox

16. Freiburg results

17. Freiburg tram…

18. Conclusion CO2 emissions rising faster from transport sector than any other Current Scottish transport policy – very mixed picture on emissions reduction – low emphasis on zero-emissions modes Using technology to reduce consumption by engines or further develop alternatively powered vehicles is part of the solution BUT Changing peoples travel behaviour to sustainable modes needs to occur also

19. Tom Rye t.rye@napier.ac.uk www.tri-napier.org