1. Global Population Aging

2. What is population aging?
Older people (often, people aged 65+) are a greater percentage of the population
The average age of the population gets older
The ratio of older people to younger people increases

3. Why do populations change?
Three basic processes affect who is counted as a member of a group
Fertility
People being born
Migration
People moving from place to place
Mortality
People dying

4. Which process do you think usually drives population aging?

5. Fertility changes are key
If people live longer but keep having lots of children, the age structure of the population does not change.
If women have fewer children, a higher percentage of people in a population will be old.
So – declining fertility rates are the key.

6. Fertility rates, 1950 and 2005 Africa: 6.7 -> 5.1
Asia: > 2.5
Latin American / Caribbean: > 2.6
North America: > 2.0
Europe: > 1.4

7. Mortality changes are also important
Increasing life expectancy contributes to population aging
Especially when infant mortality is lowered
More people survive to become old

8. Does migration have an effect?
Migration has little effect on population aging at a national level.
In some smaller areas, out-migration of younger people may lead to population aging
Especially in rural areas

9. United States, 1950

10. United States, 2000

11. United States, 2050

12. India, 2000

13. India, 2025

14. India, 2050

15. Russia, 2000

16. Russia, 2050

17. Want to see more?

18. Global Aging: Top 10 Oldest Countries
Slide 33 Global Aging: Top 10 Oldest Countries
Per Nancy Gordon (Associate Director for Demographic Programs for U.S. Census Bureau), global aging is occurring at a rate never seen before – we need to pay close attention to how countries respond to the challenges and opportunities of growing older.(An Aging World:2001, November 2001)
Italy is the world’s demographically ‘oldest’ country. Over 18% of the all Italians are aged 65 or over. It is followed by Greece, Sweden, and Japan with 17% or more. With the exception of Japan – the world’s oldest countries are in Europe.
The U.S. (not among the top 10 nor top 25) is relatively young among developed countries at less than 13%.

19. Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2000 Slide 34 Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2000
(An Aging World:2001, November 2001)
Over half (59%). of the world’s elderly now live in developing nations (Africa, Asia, Latin America, Caribbean, Oceania)
Industrialized nations of Europe, North America, and Japan: higher percentages of older people.

20. Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2030 Slide 35 Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2030
(An Aging World:2001, November 2001)
By 2030, this proportion of elderly in developing countries is projected to increase to 71%.
As noted in the report, An Aging World: 2001, these expanding numbers of very old people represent a social phenomenon without precedent. This growth is also bound to change the previously held stereotypes of older people.
In addition, this growth is pertinent to public policy because individual needs and social responsibilities change with increased age.
As the numbers grow their impact will be felt in the global economy. It is important that we understand the characteristics of this population, their strengths, and their needs. We face the challenge of anticipating the changing needs and desires of an aging world in a new millennium.