1. LIBERIA 1 1 How do you build a Results Framework? DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS

2. LIBERIA 2 DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS: OBJECTIVES  Understand causal logic (cause and effect)  Create good results statements  Apply the Results Framework rules to create/refine a results Framework 2

3. LIBERIA 3 Problem Analysis  Let’s review some of the work from Session 1. What is the problem reflected by the highest level result? Why are you doing the activities at the bottom? What connects the two? 3

4. LIBERIA 4 Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality 44 ANALYSIS OF PROBLEM PROBLEM LEVEL High rates of mortality among infants 0-12 mos. WHY?MORTALITY Diarrhea disease rates are very high among infants 0-12 mos; many die from diarrhea. WHY? DISEASE Mothers are giving breast milk substitutes to infants under 6 months Mothers are taking infants 7 – 12 mos. off the breast and feeding plain porridge prepared with unclean water. WHY? BEHAVIOR Mothers believe that breast milk alone does not satisfy infants 0-6 mos. Mothers believe that porridge is an adequate food for infants 7 –12 mos. Grandmothers insist on following traditional practices. WHY? BELIEF Mothers do not know that unclean water will make infants sick Mothers do not know that an infant does not need other foods besides breast milk up to 6 mos. Mothers do not know that an infant benefits from breast milk up to two years. KNOWLEDGE

5. LIBERIA 5 Defining specific activities to fix the causes of the problem 55  Which causes are more responsible for a larger part of the problem (whose reduction or elimination will contribute more to reducing the overall problem) ?  Which causes do we have capacities to address?

6. LIBERIA 6 Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality 66 ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMSOLUTION LEVEL High rates of mortality among infants 0-12 mos. To reduce infant mortality Diarrheal disease rates are very high among infants 0-12 mos; many die from diarrhea. To reduce incidence of diarrhea WHY? Mothers are giving breast milk substitutes to infants under 6 months Mothers are taking infants 7 – 12 mos. off the breast and feeding plain porridge prepared with unclean water. To change feeding behavior WHY? Mothers believe that breast milk alone does not satisfy infants 0-6 mos. Mothers believe that porridge is an adequate food for infants 7 –12 mos. Grandmothers insist on following traditional practices. To change beliefs WHY? Mothers do not know that unclean water will make infants sick Mothers do not know that an infant does not need other foods besides breast milk up to 6 mos. Mothers do not know that an infant benefits from breast milk up to two years. Family training in potable water and breast feeding WHY?

7. LIBERIA 7 77 Climate change has affected the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira, Peru. Without conservation measures and improved water resources management, water will become scarce in the long- term. Populations affected are essentially divided into two groups:  the highland people  the lowland people. Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case

8. LIBERIA 8 Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case (continued) Land clearing for agriculture and investments in water management infrastructure is controlled by the Municipality and guided by the interest of the local community. Conflicts exist between the two groups as decisions made do not necessarily include the interests of the other group. The project intends to address the problem by creating opportunities for joint highland/lowland decision-making processes based on scientific information. The objective is reached by these Activities: –Promotion of Stakeholder Conferences –Facilitation of Action Groups. 88

9. LIBERIA 9 What is Causal Logic? 99 Causal Logic is a way to demonstrate your theory of how the Activities delivered by your project lead to the Objective (“change in the condition of the customer”).

10. LIBERIA 10 Intro to Table Exercise 1: Developing a Causal Logic Chain

11. LIBERIA 11 Table Exercise I 11 Each table receives an envelope with cards. Task: Organize the cards in a causal logic chain that flows from the bottom up with the “Activity” (at the bottom) and the “Project Objective” at the top; post in order on desk. Working time: 5 min.

12. LIBERIA 12 Project Objective: Strengthening basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two Watersheds Activity 1: Facilitate action groups Activity 2: Promote stakeholder conferences To assure good representation at the conference To establish effective decision- making processes To avoid conflicts over water To promote politically balanced decisions To increase investment in improved water resources management To generate the political will to change water management decision making

13. LIBERIA 13 Intro to Task II: Building a Causal Logic Chain 13

14. LIBERIA 14 Use your work from Task I that shows your Results Framework and major Activities listed across the bottom. Review the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up. Add or subtract A4 papers to complete the causal logic Stop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the highest level Result Working time: 25 min. 14 Task II a: Review the Causal Logic Chain of Results Framework (RF) 14

15. LIBERIA 15 Use your flip chart from Task I that shows your Project Objective at the top and Activities listed across the bottom. Build the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up. Write the answer to each question on a card and tape it in place Stop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the Project Objective. Working time: 20 min. 15 Task II b: Build a Causal Logic Chain 15

16. LIBERIA 16 What is a Result? 16

17. LIBERIA 17 What Is a Result? A Result = Amount of change achieved or a problem solved Def. p 69, Result Def. p 60, Customer 17 Results are expressed in terms of a desired future condition, often ending or beginning with the words ‘increased’ or ‘decreased’.

18. LIBERIA 18 Types of Results: USAID Definitions Development Objective (Def. p 59, Assistance Objective – same) The most ambitious result that a USAID Operating Unit, along with its partners, can materially affect, and for which it is willing to be held accountable. Intermediate Result (IR) An important result that is seen as an essential step to achieving an Assistance Objective. IRs are measurable results that may capture a number of discrete and more specific results. IRs may also help to achieve other IRs. 18

19. LIBERIA 19 CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD RESULT STATEMENTS Clearly expresses intended Result Measurable Uni-dimensional Realistic 19

20. LIBERIA 20 Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements 20 Avoid overly broad statements. Which specific aspects of the result will project activities emphasize? State results as future completed actions. The statement should describe the end state that is desired as the outcome of the activity. Use strong action verbs. This makes results easier to understand: for example, constructed, eradicated, or reduced. Weak action verbs include: enhanced, liaised, supported, or coordinated.

21. LIBERIA 21 Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements (continued) 21 Be clear about what type of change is implied. What is expected to change—a situation, a condition, the level of knowledge, an attitude, or a behavior? Identify precisely who or what should change. Who: Is change expected to occur among individuals, families, groups, communities, regions? What: Income, water quality, laws, regulations, level of conflict?

22. LIBERIA 22 Objective: Strengthening basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two watersheds. Results Statement: Basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two watersheds strengthened. Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved

23. LIBERIA 23 Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved To facilitate action groups Decision-making process functions effectively Political will to change water management decision-making generated To have effective decision-making processes To avoid conflicts over water To promote politically balanced decisions Conflicts over water avoided Politically balanced decisions made OBJECTIVESRESULTS STATEMENTS -

24. LIBERIA 24 To promote stakeholder participation in conferences To generate the political will to change water management decision-making To increase investment in improved water management Investment in improved water resources management increased Political will to change water management decision making generated Representation of all key stakeholders at conferences secured Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved OBJECTIVESRESULTS STATEMENTS I

25. LIBERIA 25 Task III : Review/revise Results Statements in a Results Framework ·Check all Results Statements against good characteristics (slide 19) and revise if needed. ·Replace any changed with the new Result Statement cards. 15 min. 25

26. LIBERIA 26 What is a Results Framework? 26 IF....... THEN

27. LIBERIA 27 What Should a Results Framework do? (ADS 201.3.7.3) 27  Capture the key elements of the development hypothesis for achieving an Assistance Objective (AO) (program intent and content)  Clearly state results at AO and Intermediate Result (IR) levels  Provide sufficient detail and causal linkages to diagram the development hypothesis  Use results statements that are measurable and feasible during the planned life of the AO given anticipated resource levels  Incorporate critical assumptions

28. LIBERIA 28 Results Framework 28 IF....... THEN What Else? Context? Assumptions? Risks? How? Why?

29. LIBERIA 29 FINAL STEPS 1. Articulate causality (cause and effect) 2. Apply the “Necessary and Sufficient Rule” 3. Define critical assumptions 29

30. LIBERIA 30 An example of causality  Jobs created  Incomes increased  People trained  Studies completed  Experts, equipment, funds  Health conditions improved  Livelihoods improved Inputs/ Activities Outputs Outcomes Project Result/Impact IRs Project Result

31. LIBERIA 31 USAID View of Cause and Effect: (Dev. Hypothesis) Ultimate customer or customer’s environment impact 1-20 years Do not always succeed but produce learning from experience Produce data on the road of causality traveled to benefiting customers: new knowledge & impact 31

32. LIBERIA 32 Results Framework The Necessary and Sufficient Rule 32 IF....... THEN

33. LIBERIA 33 What is a Critical Assumption? A general condition under which the development hypothesis, or strategy for achieving the objective, will hold true. Critical assumptions … Are outside the control or influence of USAID and its partners. May exist from one level of the causal chain of a results framework to the next. May apply to the entire strategy. 33

34. LIBERIA 34 Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved Water resources management improved Politically balanced decisions made Investment in improved water resources management increased Conflicts over water avoided Political will to change water management decision making generated Effective decision making processes function Stakeholder capacity increased Good representation at the conference secured Facilitation of action groups Promotion of Stakeholder conference

35. LIBERIA 35 STATE/USAID INTEGRATED RF (ADS 203.3.8.3 p 36) 35

36. LIBERIA 36 Task IV a: Reviewing a Results Framework Task: 1.Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level or your Results Framework 2.Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels. 3.Place causal arrows. 4.Add any critical assumptions. 45 min. 36

37. LIBERIA 37 Task IV b: Creating a Results Framework Task: 1.Turn your Project Results Statements into a Results Framework by rearranging your Causal Logic Chain. 2.Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level. 3.Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels. 4.Place causal arrows. 5.Add any critical assumptions. (30 min.) 37

38. LIBERIA 38 Session 2. Summary Causal Logic Result Statement Criteria Necessary and Sufficient Rule Critical Assumptions State/USAID integrated Results Framework The Lord God (Reality) is very complicated, but not downright mean – A. Einstein 38