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Shan Ma and Robert Griffin

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1 Shan Ma and Robert Griffin
Ecosystem Service Valuation: Concepts, Methods and Applications Shan Ma and Robert Griffin Natural Capital Project Stanford University

2 Outline What is ecosystem service valuation?
Why value ecosystem services? How to value individual ecosystem services Methods Examples How to apply ecosystem service valuation in benefit-cost analysis

3 Outline What is ecosystem service valuation?
Why value ecosystem services? How to value individual ecosystem services Methods Examples How to apply ecosystem service valuation in benefit-cost analysis

4 What is value / valuation?
The monetary worth of something Relative worth, utility, or importance Valuation The act or process of valuing Judgment or appreciation of worth or character

5 (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment)
Ecosystem Services: benefits people obtain from ecosystems Provisioning Services Food Fresh water Wood and fiber Fuel Regulating Services Climate regulation Flood regulation Disease regulation Water regulation Cultural Services Aesthetic Spiritual Educational Recreational Provisioning: products obtained from ecosystem Regulating: benefit from regulating ecological process Cultural service: non material benefit from ecosystem Supporting service: foundation for all other ES Supporting Services Nutrient cycling Soil formation Primary production Water cycling Provision of habitat - … (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment)

6 Value of ecosystem services
Value of ecosystem services depends on “human wellbeing” derived from nature safety material needs health spiritual satisfaction social relations Monetary unit is used as a common metric to compare aspects of wellbeing Widely recognized, comparable to other services Easily incorporated into decision-making It’s not all about money, it’s human wellbeing!

7 Categories of ecosystem service value
Total Economic Value Use value Non-use value Direct use value Indirect use value Option value Existence value Example: Timber Recreation Example: Water purification Carbon sequestration Example: Soil fertility Biodiversity Example: Rare species Pagiola et al, 2004

8 Ecosystem service valuation
Decisions Actions & Scenarios Incentives Institutions Ecosystems Biophysical Models Information Value Services Economic & Cultural Models Daily et al. 2009

9 Outline What is ecosystem service valuation?
Why value ecosystem services? How to value individual ecosystem services Methods Examples How to apply ecosystem service valuation in benefit-cost analysis

10 1. Determine total flow of benefits from ecosystems
Left column: commonly measured economic value Benefits from forest in Mediterranean Countries Right column: non-market and other economic value Mediterranean countries Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Pagiola, von Ritter & Bishop 2004

11 2. Evaluate benefits and costs of ecosystem interventions
VS Development Cost Industrial & commercial benefit Grazing Development vs conservation Timber and fuel wood Pagiola, von Ritter & Bishop 2004

12 2. Evaluate benefits and costs of Ecosystem interventions
VS Industrial & commercial benefit Carbon Sequestration Development Cost Watershed protection Development vs conservation Grazing Non-timber forest product Timber and fuel wood Recreation Pagiola, von Ritter & Bishop 2004

13 3. Determine distribution of benefits
Upstream Watershed Conservation Soil erosion control Climate regulation Nutrient mitigation Flood control Sediment mitigation Carbon sequestration Endangered species Pagiola, von Ritter & Bishop 2004

14 4. Finance ecosystem conservation
Upstream Watershed Conservation Erosion control Climate regulation Farmers and Foresters Water purification Flood control Sediment mitigation Water utility Hydropower industry Beverage company Municipalities Pagiola, von Ritter & Bishop 2004

15 Outline What is ecosystem service valuation?
Why value ecosystem services? How to value individual ecosystem services Methods Examples How to apply ecosystem service valuation in benefit-cost analysis

16 Market-based valuation
Valuation Method Total Economic Value Use value Non-use value Direct use value Indirect use value Option value Existence value Example: Timber Recreation Example: Water purification Carbon sequestration Example: Soil fertility Biodiversity Example: Rare species Market-based valuation and Non-market valuation Non-market valuation Pagiola et al, 2004

17 Valuation methods in InVEST
Market-based valuation Non-market valuation Benefit Transfer Direct & indirect market Surrogate market Hypothetical market Revealed Preference Stated Preference Market price Production function Avoided Damages/ Replacement Cost Hedonic pricing Travel cost Contingent Valuation Choice modeling Current InVEST Supplemental analysis with InVEST output

18 Market price method Actual prices of goods/services InVEST examples:
Timber, Fish, Non-timber forest products, Agricultural products Hydropower, Wave energy, Wind energy Carbon sequestration (permit price) Recreation (travel cost) Credit: Oliver Dixon *models in grey are under development Credit: ZSM

19 Avoided damages/ Replacement cost
Costs incurred in the absence of the service, measuring prices of equivalent non-ecosystem services InVEST examples: Nutrient retention (water treatment) Sediment retention (dredging) Carbon sequestration (social cost) Coastal vulnerability / protection (property damages from erosion and flooding) Storm peak mitigation (flooding damage) Credit: Paul Glazzard

20 Production function Values of ecosystem products or services that contribute to the production of commercially marketed goods. InVEST examples: Crop Pollination (Index value of wild pollinator sites derived from index value of crops ) Credit: Flickr-Dluogs

21 Avoided damages/ replacement cost
Method ES type InVEST model Market price Provisioning Service Fish Aquaculture Managed Timber Production Wave Energy Hydropower Production Wind energy Agricultural Production Non-timber Forest Product Production Recreation (travel cost) Regulating Service Carbon Sequestration Water for Irrigation Avoided damages/ replacement cost Nutrient Retention Sediment Retention Coastal Vulnerability / Protection Storm Peak Mitigation Production function Pollination (index value) Currently not valued Cultural/Supporting /Regulating Services Biodiversity/Habitat quality and rarity Habitat risk assessment Aesthetic view *models in grey are under development

22 Valuation methods in InVEST
Market-based valuation Non-market valuation Benefit Transfer Direct & indirect market Surrogate market Hypothetical market Revealed Preference Stated Preference Market price Production function Avoided Damages/ Replacement Cost Hedonic pricing Travel cost Contingent Valuation Choice modeling Current InVEST Supplemental analysis with InVEST output

23 Revealed preference methods
Use observed behavior to deduce ecosystem service value from a surrogate market Hedonic pricing method (Land market) Influence of environmental/ecosystem attributes on property value Travel cost method (Tourism market) Costs of recreational visits as proxy of economic use values associated with ecosystems or sites

24 Hedonic pricing Land/property price= function (attribute1, attribute2,…) Estimate marginal contribution of each attribute to property value Aesthetic View Road Water quality City Recreation lot structure zoning

25 Hedonic pricing Land/property price= function (attribute1, attribute2,…) Estimate marginal contribution of each attribute to property value Aesthetic View Road Water quality City Recreation Species habitat Regulating services… zoning

26 Potential valuation extension to InVEST
Linking Upstream Land Use to Near Lake Property Values in Michigan, US Water quality of inland lakes Average home value for Census Blocks Average Household income Distance to roads Number of bedrooms Year built Ownership

27 Potential valuation extension to InVEST
Linking Upstream Land Use to Near Lake Property Values in Michigan, US Potential outputs: Total or average property value in a site for current scenarios Change of value in future scenarios

28 Travel cost Costs of recreational visits as proxy of economic use values associated with ecosystems or sites Visitation rate = … Site Features Visitor Features Travel Cost InVEST Recreation Model (% visitor- day) ? InVEST outputs: Water quality Aesthetic view Visitors’ value of recreation site (can be compared to conservation cost)

29 Stated-preference methods
Use reported choices to estimate value in a hypothetical market Contingent valuation Ask respondents to express their willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for changes in ecosystem services Choice modeling Ask respondents to rank/rate/choose alternative choice sets which have different combination of price attribute and ecosystem attributes

30 Stated-preference example
Survey on willingness to pay for ecosystem benefits from land conservation programs Change in land cover and land use Change in nutrient & sediment retention KBS-LTER InVEST models Change in carbon sequestration Change in habitat quality

31 Benefit Transfer With resource or time constraints, analysis using local data may be impossible Benefits transfer uses existing studies to estimate value elsewhere Value transfer Function transfer Benefits transfer may not be accurate due to spatial variability Biophysical attributes (climate, quality, size…) Socio-economic attributes (management, disturbance…)

32 Pros and cons of economic valuation
Built on economic theory Yields estimates in common (monetary) metric Powerful method to communicate value Cons Some values are difficult to measure e.g. spiritual value Valuation can be incomplete, biased and uncertain InVEST provides rapid and conservative estimates Best used to compare tradeoffs of alternative scenarios Validated value estimates better for absolute magnitude

33 Outline What is ecosystem service valuation?
Why value ecosystem services? How to value individual ecosystem services Methods Examples How to apply ecosystem service valuation in benefit-cost analysis

34 Benefits>Cost, Benefits<Cost
Cost Benefit Analysis CBA/BCA Assess the merits of a policy or action Scenario driven, need a baseline Who is decision maker? Standard approach 𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠 vs. 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 Benefits>Cost, Benefits<Cost Multiple scenarios 𝑁𝐵 2 > 𝑁𝐵 1 > 𝑁𝐵 4 > 𝑁𝐵 3 Applied setting  will want to assess effects of an action Baseline is typically “no action” Alternative to cba – MCA (multi criteria assessment) uses efficiency, equity, sustainability, etc. as decision points

35 Cost Benefit Analysis CBA/BCA General considerations Time horizon
Discount rate = time preference Include direct and indirect benefits/costs Same units Relevant stakeholders Risk and uncertainty Iterative process/optimization Scenario design for hypotheses

36 CBA Dow Example Dow Public Scenarios No restoration (status quo)
Net value of management options to Dow and Public Sea level rise Storms Coastal Development Scenarios No restoration (status quo) No restoration, build levees Restoration Opportunistic Targeted Dow Cost Benefit Analysis Public Value of avoided Dow damages Value of avoided damages Affected Parties Valuation Local Forcings Actions Action Costs to Dow Value of co-benefits

37 Cost Benefit Analysis Pros Caution Yes/no answers on net policy effect
Quantitative comparisons Caution Full accounting? Indirect effects Monetizing biases to financial/easy-to-measure Distributional effects Are heterogeneous preferences included? Winners compensate losers?

38 Thanks! NatCap: Steve Polasky Emily McKenzie Marc Conte Erik Nelson

39 Net Present Value (NPV)
The Net Present Value (NPV) of an ecosystem service is the present value of the expected net benefit flows over time. Number of years present landscape conditions are expected to persist, or total years the service is valued for. Discount rate (0%~100%): Weight of present benefits versus future benefits Larger r more weight on present

40 Ecosystem Services and human well-being
Choices Institutions (Property Rights) Institutions (Gov’t, Organizations) Ecosystems Providers (supply) Beneficiaries (demand) Measures of benefits Monetization Other values Resulting Benefits Services Nutrition Crop yields Water quantity Shelter Psychological Spiritual Distribution and Change of: Welfare Cultural importance Poverty Food security Health/nutrition Jobs/employment Vulnerability metrics InVEST

41 The Natural Capital Approach
Ecosystem structure Ecological function Supply Potential available Service Delivered to people Value Economic & social impacts Ecosystem Process Ecosystem Service Resulting Benefits DECISIONS Social preference Location + activity of beneficiaries

42 Optimal provision of ES
Optimal provision is achieved by maximizing social welfare (net benefit = total benefit - total cost) Total Benefit Price ($/unit) Maximized Social welfare Total Cost Q* Quantity

43 Optimal provision of ES
Marginal benefit= marginal cost Supply = Demand Supply Maximized Social welfare Price ($/unit) Demand Quantity

44 Benefit transfer Patch Size Habitat Type Management Habitat Quality
Supply of Service 2 Supply of Service 1 Demand Service 1 Social Context Demand Service 2 Ideally, there are several components of natural and social systems that should be included in the estimation of ecosystem service value. First, the type of habitat matters. Distinction among habitat types should be as fine as possible. For instance, “wetland” is too vague, since different types of wetlands provide different services. Then, patch size matters. We know that, for both biological and social reasons, one acre of wetland that is the only acre left has a very different value than one acre of the same wetland, of the same quality in the middle of 100,000 acres of wetland. Recent papers support a non-linear relationship between habitat size and ecosystem function as well. The management context is also critical to consider. This includes landscape context (management of parcels nearby) and management of the specific habitat type of interest (is the wetland protected, grazed, managed for flood control, etc?). These three factors (size, type, management) combine with natural habitat heterogeneity (highly invaded habitat, early successional habitat etc) to determine habitat quality. The level of ecosystem function, or service provision, is a function of habitat quality. Ideally, we want to know how much of each different service is provided, or supplied, by each habitat type at each place on the landscape. Then, value is a function of supply, demand and the ‘social landscape’- I may have this totally wrong!!!! I’m thinking of social context as who is there demanding the service and what their ability to pay, or demand the service is. Maybe this is all part of demand?? In the end, this approach would give you the value of each service, and you can add them up to get total service value if desired. Value of Service 1 Value of Service 2 Total Service Value

45 Patch Size Habitat Type Management Habitat Quality Supply of Service 1
Demand Service 1 Social Context Demand Service 2 Because of the massive lack of studies estimating the provision and value of different services in habitats of different size and management, we are unable to use benefit transfer to make estimates of single service values that are appropriate. To use benefit transfer, we have to ignore the influence of habitat quality, demand and social context, and we cannot appropriately assess how values will change under future management change. Value of Service 1 Value of Service 2 Total Service Value

46 BSR report


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