1. ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

2. AIM & END STATE Aim: –To discuss and delve into the concept of Decision Making End state: –To have a greater understanding of some of the limitations to Decision Making and some methods of enhancing it References: In the CRM Reference Manual 8.0

3. What is Decision Making? –Decision Making is a complex process consisting of evaluating alternatives and selecting a course of action The process involves seeking information relevant to the decision at hand, estimating possibilities of various outcomes, attaching values to the anticipated outcomes and then deciding on a course of action. Sanders and McCormack 1994 JUDGEMENT 8.1 JUDGEMENT CHOICE

4. JUDGEMENT There are two key types of judgement: –Perceptual (Intuitive) Decision based on perception of the environment Good for simple, common decisions –Cognitive (Analytical) Requires more analysis Used in complex decisions What are some examples of the two? 8.1.1

5. JUDGEMENT Hazardous Attitudes and Judgement –Anti-Authoritarian –Impulsiveness –Invulnerability –Exhibitionist –Resignation What do these mean? 8.1.2

6. BARRIERS Judgement is the evaluation of options The person doing the evaluation must have appropriate skills –Knowledge –Skills –Training. 8.1.2

7. BARRIERS Knowledge –Theory –Empirical Observation –OJE Skills –Innate –Taught –Acquired Training –Formal Theory –Formal Prac –OJT –Continuation Trg –Mentored Trg. 8.1.2

8. DECISION MAKING Some DM Concepts (with some aides memoire) ; –Cognitive Dissonance (Justifying bad decisions) –Consistency Theory (I am doing God’s work.) –Commitment (I’m a man of my word!) –Certainty Effect (Better the devil you know) –Choice Supported Bias (‘This is what I did before’) –Confirmation Bias (Justifying your decision) –Scarcity Principle (“I can’t have him therefore I must have him!) –Sunk-Cost Effect (“The share price should go up soon!”) 8.2.1

9. DECISION MAKING A hypothesis is an explanation between two or more variables Hypotheses usually include a prediction of future events Determining Cause is a means of testing a hypothesis False Hypotheses are expectations derived from incorrect assumptions... 8.2.2

10. DECISION MAKING False Hypotheses can result from: –High Expectancy of Certain Circumstances –Diverted Attention –Expected Circumstances are desired –After High Concentration –Reflexes were wrong Determining Cause –Looking for things that are different or things that are the same IOT test a hypothesis. 8.2.2.1

11. DECISION MAKING Limitations on DM: –Situational Factors Eg Time, Environment, Mechanical, Organisational –Physiological Factors Eg Sensory Limitations, Illness –Psychological Factors Eg Belief system, Expectation Bias, Hazardous Attitudes. 8.2.3

12. DECISION MAKING Procedural Tools –Crew Determined DM Triggers Equidistant Point / Equitime Point / PNR –Manufacturer Determined DM Triggers Land ASAP emergencies Should/Shall/Must –Regulator Determined DM Triggers Rules and Regulations and Recommendations. 8.2.4

13. DM MODELS DM Process / DM Models –Each situation requiring DM is different but each DM process – or DM Model – follows similar steps –The CRM Reference Manual has descriptions of the different DM Models –The US Army’s Planning Handbook describes the process as follows: 8.2.4

14. DM MODELS –Determine the Nature of the Problem –Identify the Problem –Identify what is Necessary to Solve the Problem –Gather Information –Generate Assessment Criteria –Analyse Possible Solutions –Decide on Best Course of Action –Brief the Plan –(Implement the Plan) –Review the Plan if Necessary. 8.3.1.2

15. DM MODELS The following DM Models are in common use: –SADIE / CLEAR / GRADE –MIDAS –OODA Let’s compare each DM Model 8.2.4

16. DM MODELS 8.3.1.2 MIDAS –Used by SA Country Fire Service to assess a situation and decide on a course of action Review and compare MIDAS.

17. DM MODELS 8.3.3 OODA Loop Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (repeat ie loop) –Devised by a US fighter pilot (Colonel Boyd) –Fast decision making tool –Abbreviated DM Model similar to other models.

18. IMPROVING DM 8.3.3 Keep up your level of training Keep healthy. DM is affected by your physical condition When confronted with a situation: –Stabilise the situation / Buy time, sell stress. Assess the situation Determine if a solution is known Assess time factors.

19. IMPROVING DM 8.3.3 Use an appropriate DM Model Task specific discussion Allocate priorities Manage workload Consider contingencies Keep everyone in the loop Execute the Plan Review and adjust the Plan.