1. GEORGE BUSH AND THE WAR ON TERROR

2. READING Smith, Talons, ch. 10 DFC, chs. 1, 3

3. ENDING THE DECADE OF UNCERTAINTY (1990-2001) Change of administration Change of party Change of context: 9/11

4. PHASE 1: INITIAL ORIENTATIONS High level of presidential interest Relationship with Mexico (and Vicente Fox) Near-agreement on immigration reform Support for FTAA Composition of administrative team Isolation of Cuba

5. PHASE 2: 9/11 AND THE AMERICAS Change in regional priorities Unilateralist impulses End of wholesale immigration reform Stamp-collecting PHASE 3: DUAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS FTAs with Chile, CAFTA, Peru, Colombia (?) Steel tariffs and farm bill Dualism: “Intermestic”politics plus the war on terror

6. UNLEASHING WAR: CHRONOLOGY September 11, 2001: attacks on U.S. September 20, 2001: Bush speech October 7, 2001: bombardments in Afghanistan March 2003: invasion of Iraq

8. WAR ON TERROR: THE RULES OF THE GAME 1.Nations can respond however they choose—including the use of indiscriminate force. 2.Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable. 3.There is no need to adhere to international treaties or conventions. 4.Alliances are formed around one central issue—the anti-terror campaign. Democracy and human rights are secondary issues. 5.Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

9. U.S. LOSS OF “SOFT POWER”

10. U.S. PRESTIGE IN LATIN AMERICA

11. CHANGING VIEWS OF U.S. IN LATIN AMERICA Distaste for Abu Ghraib, Haditha, “collateral damage” and loss of life Solidarity with innocent civilians, hidden admiration for Osama bin Laden Rejection of American society, not just U.S. foreign policy Resentment of Bush unilateral approach Distrust of democratic crusade

12. DUAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS: CRISIS MANAGEMENT (SIC) Argentina (December 2001) Venezuela (April 2002) Bolivia (October 2003) Haiti (February-March 2004)

13. THE PATTERN Insufficient attention Blame incumbents for their problems, especially if unpopular within Bush circles No preventive action Deny involvement Recognize successor Result: What about democracy?

14. MARCH 2007 Week-long presidential trip Friendly locations: Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico Goals: reassert American hegemony, proclaim concern for “social justice,” counter influence of opponents Sidebar: ethanol agreement with Brazil General view: “too little, too late”

15. GWB and Latin America: Historical and Comparative Perspective _________Latin America as Priority___________ ______ Low _______ _______ High _____ Operational Mode for U.S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic imposition intervention (Bush 2001-09) (Reagan 1981-89) ________________________ __________________ Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral low-level high-level diplomacy engagement (Clinton 1993-2000) (Kennedy 1961-63) ____________________________________________________________

16. WHAT COULD LATIN AMERICA DO?