1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting presented by Christopher Wornum Cambridge Systematics, Inc. June 28, 2007 New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit

2. Market-Based Planning Process From Private Sector to Public Sector Private Sector Toyota Mobility Services

3. Door-to-Door Service Consistent Customer Experience Walk Wait Board Pay Seat Ride Arrival Walk Errands Distance Esthetics Barriers Weather Headway Arrival information Shelter Comfort Safety Low floor Queuing Speed Fare Convenience Transfer Availability Comfort Privacy Speed Comfort Productive Reliability Way Finding Transfer Distance Esthetics Barriers Alternative modes Weather Access Emergencies Modes Schedule Home Work Relative Importance

4. Branding & Marketing Competitive Positioning Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Understand Markets Origin – Destination Volumes Other Travel Market Conditions Service Planning Tool (SPT) Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF) Roadmap From Market Research to Service Planning Service Planning (Product Development)

5. Determine Traveler Attitudes Value of Time & Productivity Transportation Costs CrowdsStress Personal Safety Concern for the Natural Environment Need for Flexibility and Speed Personal Travel Experience

6. Key Attitude Number 2 The people who ride the trolley are like me The people who ride city buses are like me The people who ride the Coaster commuter train are like me I would (not) prefer to drive than to be driven I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable Generally I make the same types of trips at the same times of day The type of transportation that people use (does not) reflect their social status Sensitivity to Personal Travel Experience 100% 96% 67% 27% 22% 10% 8%

7. Concern for Environment Universal Design Service Attributes Important for Entire Service Population Flexibility & Speed Range of Attitudes for all Potential Customers All Market Segments Combined More Sensitive0.51.01.52.02.53.03.5 Less Sensitive-1.5-0.5-2.0-3.0-2.5-3.5 Indifferent0 Personal Travel Experience Personal Safety Time & Productivity Cost Stress Crowds

8. High Sensitivity to Experience Road Runners Medium Sensitivity to Experience Structure of Market Segments San Diego Region Residents in SANDAG Service Area Less Need For Flexibility & Speed More Need For Flexibility & Speed High Sensitivity to Experience Conventional Cruisers Low Sensitivity to Experience Easy Goers High Sensitivity to Personal Safety Cautious Runabouts Low Sensitivity to Experience Flexible Flyers Low Sensitivity to Personal Safety Intrepid Trekkers “Need for flexibility and speed” “ Personal travel experience” “Sensitivity to personal safety”

9. Quantifying Tradeoffs How Much Do Flexible Flyers Value Different Options? Having real time arrival information Save 5 minute in-vehicle travel time Improve peak headway by 5 min Save 5 minute driving access Reduce cost by 50 cents Shuttle No transfer Guaranteed seat Save 5 minute parking search time Improve off-peak headway by 5 min Save 5 minute walking access time

10. Competitive Positioning Existing Assets Local government cooperation Financial resources Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Service Planning Tool (SPT) Strategic Roadmap Understanding Markets

11. Service Planning Tool Segmentation & SEM Segment Locations & Characteristics Travel Demand Model Output Trip Tables Base LOS IVTT Frequencies Transit Network Parking Supply Fares Seat Availability Census Data or Travel Model Socioeconomics Service Planning Tool ArcGIS User Interface Network Structure Performance Variables Customer Experience Ridership Mode Peak vs. Off-peak Trip Purpose Segment-Specific Mode Choice Models Quantify Tradeoffs between Service Characteristics

12. Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Understand Markets Origin – Destination Volumes Other Travel Market Conditions Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF) Strategic Roadmap Understanding Markets

13. Understanding Markets Identify Places Where Transit is Competitive Trip Intensity  Trip generation & attraction  Time of day  Trip purpose Competitive Advantage for Transit  Congestion  Transit priority  Parking scarcity and Price Concentration of Target Market Segments

14. Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF) Each Factor Weighted by Ability to Generate Transit Trips Transit Competitiveness Factor Transportation Land Use Factors Customer TypesTrip Purposes  Trip Density  Parking Search Time  Parking Cost  Auto Access, Egress Time  Congestion  Pedestrian Friendliness  Road Runners  Cautious Runabouts  Intrepid Trekkers  Flexible Flyers  Conventional Cruisers  Easy Goers  Work  School  Other

15. Origin TCF – Santa Clara County Transit Competitive

16. 11 percent of trips go to transit competitive destinations Destination TCF Transit competitive threshold = 30 jobs per gross acre

17. Questions and Answers