2. A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center

3. To develop a model to project urban and rural populations for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities by integrating data on mortality, fertility, and migration

4. Methodological steps: n Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate (natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian municipality and Brazilian States n Projecting the above estimates using logistic function n Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory movements between the above defined spatial units. n Model implementation in a system thinking software (VENSIM) n Model validation versus 2000s IBGE data and other projection models outputs

5. n The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on demographic data from 1991s and 2000s IBGE census.

6. Crude Death Rate

7. Crude Birth Rate Urbanization Rate

8. Vegetative Growth Rate In-migration Rate Out-migration Rate

9. Residence in 1995 out-migrants Residence in 2000 Migration matrix (Q) in-migrants

10. Logistic Function

11. System equations

13. Model output versus 2000s IBGE data Validatio n

14. Urban population 4,500,000 0 Rural population Model outputs aggregated by subregion

15. The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migration Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

16. Linking population to deforestation CC=0.75n=382

17. Anthropic pressure - a synthetic index for deforestation potential 0.8-1 0.6-0.8 0.4-06 0.2-04 0.0-02 0.82 to1.0 0.54 to0.82 0.29 to0.54 0.1 to0.29 0 to0.1 non-data A component to be used to project deforestation within SimAmazonia density of deforested anthropic pressure Garcia R, Soares-Filho, Swayer, D. Dimensões sócio-econômicas e movimentos populacionais: uma regionalização da Amazônia brasileira. ABEP, 2004

18. A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Thats all, folks…Thanks! Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center