1. Richelle Winkler & Collin Payne Wisconsin High School Graduate Projections Presentation for the University of Wisconsin System March 13, 2008

2. State of Wisconsin: High School Graduate History and Projections, 2001-2019

3. How do APL projections compare to WICHE?

4. Why are graduates projected to decline? K-12 School Enrollment is declining. Between 2001-2006, 69% of school districts declined. Age structure of K-12 students is older. Births in Wisconsin were low in 1990s and early 2000s.

5. Wisconsin’s K-12 School Enrollment, Fall 2006

6. Births to Wisconsin Mothers, 1980-2011

7. Wisconsin Births by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2006

8. Wisconsin Workforce Development Areas

9. Projected % Change in Graduates by WDA, 2006-2012

10. Projected Change in High School Graduates 2006-2012

11. High School Graduate Projections by Sex, 2001-2019

12. Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity

13. The proportion of graduates who are persons of color is increasing

14. Wisconsin Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity

15. Public High School Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity

16. Public High School Graduation Rates by Sex and Race/Ethnicity, 2003

17. Plans to Pursue a College Education by Race/Ethnicity

18. Plans to Pursue a College Education by WDA

19. Summary Points  Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline  Similar trends for males and females overall  Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except Hispanics who will see substantial increase  Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under 18 will likely introduce new challenges and opportunities Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future