1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
June 17, 2019
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA

3. Farm Debt
Source: Federal Reserve

4. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

5. Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

6. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

7. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

9. Global Shares
Source: USDA

10. Arable Land

11. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

15. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

16. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2016 2017 2018 2019 Δ2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
94.0
90.2
89.1
89.8
-3.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
174.6
176.6
176.4
166.0
-10.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
15,148
14,609
14,420
13,680
-1,350
Beg. Stocks
1,737
2,293
2,140
2,195
100
Imports 57 36 35 50 15
Total Supply
16,942
16,939
16,595
15,925
-1,235
Feed & Residual
5,470
5,304
5,300
5,150
-300
Ethanol
5,432
5,605
5,450
5,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,453
1,451
1,450
Exports
2,294
2,438
2,200
2,150
-125
Total Use
14,649
14,799
14,400
14,250
-425
Ending Stocks
1,675
-810
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.36
3.60
3.80
0.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. U.S. Corn Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS 17 17

18. Corn Historical Relationship
2019
By May 20 18 18

19. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2016
2017
2018
2019
Δ2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.4
90.2
89.2
84.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
52.0
49.3
51.6
49.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
4,296
4,412
4,544
4,150
Beg. Stocks
197
302
438
1,070 75
Imports 22 17 20
Total Supply
4,515
4,735
4,999
5,240
Crush
1,901
2,055
2,100
2,115
Seed & Residual
146
113
129
130
Exports
2,166
2,129
1,700
1,950
Total Use
4,214
4,297
3,929
4,195
Ending Stocks
1,045
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.47
9.33
8.50
8.25
0.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. U.S. Soybean Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS 20 20

21. Soy Historical Relationship
2019
By May 18 21 21

22. Weather Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC 22 22

23. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 23 23

24. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 24 24

25. Current Corn Futures
4.51
3.72
Source: CME Group, 6/14/2019

26. Current Soybean Futures
9.12
8.58
Source: CME Group, 6/14/2019

27. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

28. 2019/20 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

29. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

30. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

31. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: