1. Monterey Peninsula School District
Enrollment Forecast Report 2017
Presented by
Edit default month & year on master if necessary.
Replace [District Name] with the full district name
System Admin > District Info
Edit First Projected Year if necessary

2. Presentation Agenda Introduction to DecisionInsite
Who we are and what we do.
Our Technology
Methodology Review
Moderate and Conservative Forecast differences
Historical Enrollment Analysis
Review of New Housing Impact
Enrollment Forecast Review
Q&A
January 2017

3. Serving K12 School Districts for 13 years
Generated Enrollment Forecasts for 111 Districts this year
Serving Districts from 212,000 – 1,000 students
Serving over 100 California Districts and 150 in 10 States
January 2017

4. (not necessary to get all Odist students if extent is too great)
DI System:
Plot All students
Export Image, map only, map extent just slightly larger than the district boundary.
(not necessary to get all Odist students if extent is too great)
January 2017

5. Methodology Primary factors that influence calculations
Kindergarten
Aging of grade cohorts through system
Impact of new residential development
Inter-district transfers
Other factors that can influence
Private school enrollment
Housing market; foreclosures
Anomalous events such as fires, business closures
January 2017

6. Study Differences Two projection studies are completed each year
Conservative suitable for budgeting
Moderate suitable for facilities planning
Methodology Differences
For Kindergarten and for each grade level cohort change, the algorithm determines for each Studyblock, two mathematically supportable trends based on the 4 year history.
The lesser of the two trends is applied to the conservative study; the greater to the moderate.
Similar viable differentiations, applied similarly, are made for:
Incoming out of district transfers
Students generated by proposed residential development, if any
January 2017

7. Historical Enrollment Review Recent Historical Changes
Final Report Excel version;
~row 160
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January 2017

8. Kindergarten Impact 14-decline 15 decline 16 increase, Overall stable,
January 2017

9. Cohort Aging Final Report Excel version; ~row 235
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January 2017

10. Summary of Historical Enrollment Trends
Kindergarten: Decrease from 2013 to 2014 and a slight increase between 2015 and 2016.
Cohort Changes: Significant loss from 5>6 and significant gain 8>9
District Enrollment: Slight decline in enrollment between to 2015.
Customize bullet points in these categories.
January 2017

11. Enrollment Forecasts Conservative 5 Year Projection
Final Report Excel version;
~row 370
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January 2017

12. Enrollment Forecasts Moderate 5 Year Projection
January 2017

13. Describe RDR process
January 2017

14. Proposed New Dwelling Units
January 2017

15. Projected Dwelling Unit Occupancy
January 2017

16. Students Generated by New Housing
January 2017

17. District-wide Projections
Final Report Excel version;
~row 410
Copy paste,
January 2017

18. Conservative and Moderate Compared 5 Year Projections
Final Report Excel version;
~row 440
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January 2017

19. Out of District Projection (conservative study)
January 2017

20. Composite K-12 Forecast (conservative study)
DI System: Conservative Study
Reports > Projections > Out of District
Download to Excel
Copy Paste.
Bump font.
January 2017

21. Elementary
Final Report:
~row 490
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January 2017

22. Middle School
Final Report:
~row 510
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January 2017

23. High School
January 2017

24. Enrollment Change by School
Final Report
~row 700???
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January 2017

25. Grade Level Profiles
Final Report:
~row 620
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January 2017

26. General Observations
The Kindergarten is forecasted to have slight declines beginning in 2017.
There are slight decreases from Kindergarten to Grade 1, consistent with history years.
There are slight decreases at each grade level between Grade 1 and 8 and between 9 and 12.
Questions?
Customize Bullets
January 2017

27. Monterey Peninsula School District
Enrollment Forecast Report 2017
Presented by
Replace [District Name] with the full district name
System Admin > District Info
Edit First Projected Year if necessary