1. Oakland Unified School District Demographic Trends and Downtown Development September 6, 2006 Shelley Lapkoff www.Demographers.com

2. Topics Covered District-wide enrollment changes Downtown developments – Housing forecast – Student yields in new development – Student yields in older housing – Forecast of students from Downtown housing developments

3. District-wide Enrollment Trends Cycle of events creating enrollment decline Significant enrollment decline after the dotcom bust Enrollment decline created financial problems Financial problems led to the state takeover State takeover and closing schools resulted in further enrollment decline Enrollment decline is likely to be temporary, with OUSD eventually returning to more normal enrollment levels

11. Downtown Development Over 14,000 housing units to be built, including 1,800 already built Most developments will be high-rise luxury condominiums that do not contain many children Affordable units can significantly impact OUSD enrollments

13. Enrollment Impact Depends on Student Yield Only three students live in Downtowns recently-constructed market rate housing (over 1,700 units) The one non-senior affordable housing project contained 16 students in 42 units. Older high-rise buildings also had low yields, though a few complexes contained children.

16. Key Assumptions in Forecasting Students from Downtown Development Percentage of units that will be affordable Student yield of market rate units Student yield of the affordable units Grade distribution of students from new housing Number and type of units built

21. Accommodating Students in OUSD Facilities Do not assume that current facilities can accommodate students from new housing: – Enrollments are probably low only temporarily – Oak & 9 th is isolated by the freeway and railroad tracks – Some of the elementaries are now full, despite the recent decline If enrollments warrant it, Carter (and more of Lowell) middle school could be re-opened. Then McClymonds would have space for additional high school students, assuming the middle school students now served there return to middle school campuses. If the Medium and High forecast materializes, a plan is needed to house additional elementary students.

22. Summary OUSD has had abnormal enrollment declines, and now has very low enrollments. We do not yet know whether this years enrollments will continue this downward trend. Probably about 1,200 students will be generated from downtown housing, assuming that 15 percent of the units will be affordable. The District will want various contingency plans to decide how to accommodate the students from new development. The elementary enrollment increase may be the most difficult to handle.

23. Questions???