1. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 21, 2014 June 15, 2015

2. SUMMARY In the past ten years, enrollment increased 1.2 percent The district’s school age population increased 1.8 percent while resident enrollment in the Marshall Public Schools increased 2.8 percent The Marshall Public Schools’ share increased but is lower than some comparable communities due to the high percentage of students in nonpublic settings, but similar to state wide average The Marshall Public Schools are a net gainer among the various public school options

3. SUMMARY All four enrollment projections show enrollment increasing. In ten years, the projected increase ranges from 18.6 percent to 23.3 percent Enrollment increases at all levels (elementary, middle and high school) Caution: Projections assume that Grade 9 will be 42-43 percent larger than Grade 8 due to nonpublic students or other students entering high school If that rate is lower, the overall rate of growth will be lower The district will need more single-family detached housing units to house the projected enrollment increase 2014—needs more units, not just single-family detached

4. TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY K-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT 2004-052,187 2005-062,190 2006-072,182 2007-082,224 2008-092,170 2009-102,136 2010-112,168 2011-122,206 2012-132,216 2013-142,214 2014-152,293 Excludes Early Childhood and MECLA

5. COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE Fall to Fall TotalNatural Increase/Decrease Net Migration #% 2004 to 200530.1-6871 2005 to 2006-8-0.3-8375 2006 to 2007421.9-86128 2007 to 2008-54-2.4-9945 2008 to 2009-34-1.6-4814 2009 to 2010321.5-3769 2010 to 2011381.8-1856 2011 to 2012100.573 2012 to 2013-2----2725 2013 to 2014793.6%1861

6. EDUCATION CHOICES 2011-12 MinnesotaMarshall Nonpublic settings10.0%16.3% Traditional schools8.1%14.9% Home schools1.9%1.3% Public Options Open enrollment6.4% In10.2% Out6.1% Charter schools4.1%--- Capture Rate78.8%77.7%

7. TOTAL ENROLLMENT Grade 2004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-14 K134166150176144164168186 184 1144131151161 131165162181175 2148132130154167154133159155182 3125148133138147157152131163155 4153127145146140142153163129160 5134151129146145133142150157145 6123129145137138149132140146151 7141129131145141134147139147148 8175143128135153143141149132160 9219222215204188224203202203194 10236228223209215193233213201199 11221251240230219207195233205186 12234233262243212205204179211175 Total2,1872,1902,1822,2242,1702,1362,1682,2062,2162,214

8. TOTAL ENROLLMENT Grade 2005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-14 2014-15 K166150176144164168186 184193 1131151161 131165162181175177 2132130154167154133159155182170 3148133138147157152131163155176 4127145146140142153163129160 5151129146145133142150157145155 6129145137138149132140146151139 7129131145141134147139147148160 8143128135153143141149132160154 9222215204188224203202203194211 10228223209215193233213201199206 11251240230219207195233205186208 12233262243212205204179211175184 Total2,1902,1822,2242,1702,1362,1682,2062,2162,2142,293

9. AVERAGE GRADE SIZE “Average” grade size 171/175 K-4 151/152 5-8 189/202 9-12 The distribution of students by grade suggests enrollment will increase if kindergarten remains near its current level Kindergarten fluctuated in size but is significantly larger today than ten years ago

10. RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS RESIDENT BIRTHS YearMinnesotaLyon County 199865,207353 199965,953323 200067,451350 200166,617333 200268,037332 200370,053292 200470,617318 200570,950320 200673,515382 200773,675366 200872,382376 200970,617378 201068,407362 201168,416373 201268,783347 201369,183361

11. MACRO TRENDS Aging population Less mobility Decrease in school age population per household Shift in size of adult age groups Less demand for single-family detached housing More births this decade and the next (Gen Y) Another enrollment cycle (third) Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)

12. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort survival method Projections by grade Reflects recent births and current size of grades Difficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect additional housing units, especially if a large number of units

13. KINDERGARTEN POOL Birth YearsCounty PoolPercentageKindergarten 1998; 1999 33240.36% 2004-05 1999; 2000 34148.68% 2005-06 2000; 2001 33944.25% 2006-07 2001; 2002 33253.01% 2007-08 2002; 2003 30647.06% 2008-09 2003; 2004 30953.07% 2009-10 2004; 2005 31952.66% 2010-11 2005; 2006 36251.38% 2011-12 2006; 2007 37150.13% 2012-13 2007; 2008 37349.33% 2013-14 2008; 2009 37751.19% 2014-15 2009; 2010 368 2015-16 2010; 2011 369 2016-17 2011; 2012 355 2017-18 2012; 2013 357 2018-19

14. KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES Cohort survival method Kindergarten Assumptions (based on 2013 data) Low is 50.3%, the average of the past three years High is 51.3%, the average of the past five years Longer-term Lyon County births are higher than projected, so adjusted upward by 5.5%

15. KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS Year@50.3%@51.3% 2013-14184 2014-15190 193193 2015-16185189 2016-17186189 2017-18189193 2018-19191194 2019-20193197 2020-21195199 2021-22196200 2022-23196200 2023-24196200 Total1,9171,954

16. NET MIGRATION SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR Grade04 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 13 K-4-13-1835-14-35-3 -10-13 5-81-3133-544-1025 9-12839680565468552313 Total717512845146956325

17. NET MIGRATION SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR Grade05 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 1313 to 14 K-4-1835-14-35-3 -10-13 5-8-3133-544-10254 9-12968056546855231370 Total751284514695632561

18. NET MIGRATION BY GRADE Grade04 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 13 K to 1 -3-1511-15-131-6-5-11 1 to 2 -1236-72-6-71 2 to 3 018-7-10-2 40 3 to 4 2-3132-5-411-2-3 4 to 5 -221-70-3-616 5 to 6 -5-68-84-2-4-6 6 to 7 6204-4-2772 7 to 8 248272-713 8 to 9 477276537160615462 9 to 10 91-6115910-4 10 to 11 1512710-820 -15 11 to 12 12113-18-14-3-16-22-30 Total 717512845146956325

19. NET MIGRATION BY GRADE Grade05 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 13 13 to 14 K to 1 -1511-15-131-6-5-11-7 1 to 2 36-72-6-71-5 2 to 3 18-7-10-2 40-6 3 to 4 -3132-5-411-2-35 4 to 5 21-70-3-616-5 5 to 6 -68-84-2-4-6 6 to 7 204-4-27729 7 to 8 48272-7136 8 to 9 727653716061546251 9 to 10 1-6115910-412 10 to 11 12710-820 -159 11 to 12 113-18-14-3-16-22-30-2 Total 751284514695632561

20. PROJECTED SURVIVAL RATES GradeLow (past 5 years)High (past 3 years) K to 10.959 1 to 20.9800.976 2 to 30.9871.003 3 to 40.9961.013 4 to 51.0031.022 5 to 60.9880.974 6 to 71.0151.039 7 to 81.0241.017 8 to 91.4301.423 9 to 101.0181.008 10 to 110.9720.962 11 to 120.9200.893

21. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Based on 2014, enrollment projections based on 2013 data are still reasonable. No reason to make new projections

22. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Year Low K Low Mig High K Low Mig Low K High Mig High K High Mig 2013-142,214 2014-152,2712,2742,2702,273 2015-162,3242,3312,3242,331 2016-172,3742,3812,3792,389 2017-182,4182,4312,4322,446 2018-192,4432,4592,4682,484 2019-202,4782,4982,5152,536 2020-212,5192,5422,5662,590 2021-222,5662,5932,6242,651 2022-232,5922,6232,6572,689 2023-242,6252,6612,6932,730

23. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS K-45-89-12Total 2013-148566047542,214 2018-19 Low K/Low Mig8946778722,443 High K/Low Mig9106778722,459 Low K/High Mig9017088592,468 High K/High Mig9177088592,484 2023-24 Low K/Low Mig9276999992,625 High K/Low Mig9467121,0032,661 Low K/High Mig9347331,0262,693 High K/High Mig9537461,0302,730

24. HOUSING Maxfield Research, Inc. findings: Demand to support 608 general occupancy housing units in City of Marshall between 2015 and 2025 Demand expected to favor rental housing, with 371 rental units and 237 for-sale housing units needed in City of Marshall by 2025 Based on recent sale transactions, housing demand is highest for modestly-priced housing in the $100,000 to $150,000 range