1. Introduction to SchoolSite Enrollment Projections Review of Methodology and Factors Along with Hands-on Experience Using SchoolSite 9.3.1 By David Kaitz

2. Planning/Forecasting Basics Planning horizon for constructing most new facilities is usually between five to seven years Short to mid-range projections lose accuracy over time due to lack of reliable housing construction data, birthrates and economic conditions… To keep up with changes, projections should be updated annually at a minimum. New sites should be considered much further into the future (using “Maturation” projections)

3. Factors That Influence Enrollment? Births in the District area (BIRTH FACTORS) Residential construction/demolition (TRACT PHASING and STUDENT YIELD FACTORS) Move in/out of families in existing homes (MOBILITY) Drop-outs (MOBILITY) Private school transitions (MOBILITY)

4. 3-10 Year Projection Factors DDP’s Projections use a “modified” cohort survival method and are based upon where the students reside: Current geocoded student data acts a base for future projections Students progress through grades each year Future Kindergarten classes partially based upon past birth trends New students added at all grades based upon new housing construction multiplied by Student Yield Factors Percentage of students that move in or out of the District – referred by DDP as “mobility factors”

5. Exercise: Creating a SchoolSite Projection Open ArcMap as a blank map document Add in SchoolSite Projection Toolbar Push the “SchoolSite Projection” button and click on “Create New Projection” Choose “Create a new SchoolSite Geodatabase” Save the new GDB onto the C-Drive (C:\GIS\SSUC_Data\Data\SchoolSite\Projections) and call it: projections_fall2008 Give the Projection a Name (i.e.: Test Projection 1) You can also add Notes and Comments

6. Exercise: Creating a SchoolSite Projection LOADING THE INDIVIDUAL DATA LAYERS AND SETTING THE PROJECTION DATE (Make sure to change the Data Source Type to “File Geodatabase”) SET THE PROJECTION DATE TO COINCIDE WITH THE DATE THE STUDENT DATA REPRESENTS!! CRITICAL FOR LOADING TRACT PHASING INFORMATION!!

7. Exercise: Creating a SchoolSite Projection LOADING THE TRACT INFORMATION (PHASING OF THE RESIDENTIAL UNITS) THEN SKIP THE LOADING OF AN ASSESSOR FILE BY CLICKING ON “FINISH”!

8. Exercise: Creating a SchoolSite Projection A PROJECTION IS CREATED!!!!! BUT BEFORE WE DO THAT, LET’S GO OVER THE MAJOR FACTORS THAT GO INTO THE SchoolSite PROJECTIONS!!! YOU CAN NOW CLICK ON THE “PROJECTION PROPERTIES” BUTTON AND BEGIN ADJUSTING THE PROJECTIONS WITH THE DIFFERENT FACTORS, YOU CAN PRINT OUT REPORTS OR YOU CAN EXPORT DATA

9. Entering Birth Data into the Projections With a default of 1, the 2008 Kindergarten class progresses through with no increase or decrease in class sizes

10. Building Off of the Exercise - Modifying the Birth Information Let’s put in Birth Factor values in the columns representing all the Study Areas

11. Students to be Generated from New Residential Development Understanding residential development trends in the District is essential to forecasting students in developing areas Project phasing available through contacts with developers, city/county planning agencies, sales offices, local media… Data required for each project: Number and type of proposed units Location (study area) Phasing schedule (or a start and completion date from which an estimated schedule can be determined)

12. Students to be Generated from New Residential Development Data is already entered into SchoolSite from the Tract layer Or The individual unit counts can be added and/or updated manually in SchoolSite by entering new data into the cells marked Year 0 - 11 Projected Year 0 (Existing Units - Used for Maturation) Units built over next 10 years (1-10) Projected Year 12 (Total of All Units 0-11) SFD Usually Represents Projected Year 11 (Units that could be built after 10 years) MFA APT Other Types, like Mobile Homes

13. Student Yield Factors STUDENT YIELD FACTORS MULTIPLIED BY THE APPROPRIATE HOUSING TYPE PROVIDES THE PROJECTED STUDENT COUNTS GENERATED BY NEW HOUSING (EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED AMONG THE GRADE GROUPING) SFD Only the Study Areas that are associated with the chosen school are selected and the factors entered are applied to only those study areas.

14. Building Off of the Exercise - Entering Student Yield Factors Let’s put in Student Yield values in the columns representing all the Study Areas or select a particular Attendance Area

15. Mobility Factors (also known as cohorts) address several key enrollment change factors: Housing Resales Impact (move-in/out in areas over time) Entering of students from Private Schools (especially those entering high schools from K-8 facilities) Apartment Migration Drop-outs - mostly for the high school grades To obtain this data, ideally you want to focus on neighborhoods with no new development over the last five years (the established, built-out regions of the District) Mobility Factors

16. MOBILITY FACTORS CAN BE CALCULATED BY THE INDIVIDUAL GRADE TRANSITIONS OR THE ELEMENTARY GRADES (FOR EXAMPLE) CAN BE GROUPED TO REPRESENT THE SAME FACTOR MOBILITY FACTORS REPRESENT AN INCREASE OR DECREASE OF STUDENTS TRANSITIONING FROM ONE GRADE TO THE NEXT

17. Building Off of the Exercise - Entering Mobility Factors Let’s put in Mobility Factor values in the columns representing all the Study Areas or you can select certain Attendance Areas (such as by each high school area)

18. Projection Results Do you see the progression of students through the grades?

19. Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections View the Projections by Using Different Report Summaries!! A District-Wide Summary A Report for Each Study Area A Report for Each Attendance Area

20. All of the Data and in the SchoolSite Projection Module Can be Exported and the Reports Can be Printed and/or Exported The reports can be saved in text (TXT) format and opened in MS Excel or Word You can send directly to a printer or create a PDF of the report(s) Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

21. You can also actually drag your cursor and select the report text and use Control-C and Control-V to copy and paste the text into Excel or Word. Control-C and Control-V Bring Into MS Excel Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections Bring Into MS Word

22. Mapping the Growth/Decline in certain Neighborhoods!! Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

23. You can also create a Build-out or “Maturation” projection Represents a point in time when all of the District’s housing units are built Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

24. You can create an unlimited number of Redistricting Plans off of the Projections Projected student counts Represents student data for Fall 2010 Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

25. Clicking on the HELP (?) Buttons will launch DDP’s extensive Help System for Projections Getting Help with the Projections

26. Other Related Sessions to Attend Advanced Projections (goes into more detail about how you calculate the projection factors) OFFERED THURSDAY @ 8:30AM IN THE ADVENTURE B ROOM

27. Introduction to SchoolSite Enrollment Projections (Using ArcGIS 9.3.1) QUESTIONS?