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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook Jan. 25, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.9 176.5 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626 14,930 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,781 Imports 67 57 36 45 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,811 16,751 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,298 5,500 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,600 5,700 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,480 1,490 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,030 15,190 Ending Stocks 1,571 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 2 2
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1 82.5 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 52.1 50.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,600 4,090 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 955 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063 5,070 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080 2,075 Seed & Residual 122 146 112 128 127 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,900 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,107 4,277 Ending Stocks 793 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.75 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 3 3
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Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 4 4
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Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 5 5
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World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6
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World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7
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Arable land
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U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11
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Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
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Ethanol Production Source: EIA
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Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
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Current Corn Futures 3.97 3.65 Source: CME Group, 1/24/2019
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Current Soybean Futures
9.45 8.78 Source: CME Group, 1/24/2019
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2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
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2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
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Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
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Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
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Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey
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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:
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