1. Cuyahoga County: After 200 Years a Turning Point… and a Stacked Deck Thomas Bier Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs Cleveland State University t.bier@csuohio.edu 6/25/12

2. Consider Fundamental underlying dynamics. Long-term big picture. Response.

3. The Situation After 200 years of development, Cuyahoga County is close to being Ohios first built-out county. Few green fields remain.

4. As Cuyahogas Supply of Greenfield Land Has Shrunk, Development Has Shifted to Adjacent Counties* Cuyahogas Share of 7-County New Housing (units) 198544% 201020% * Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, Summit

7. Average Annual Percentage Change Residential Real Estate Value, 1985-2010

8. Average Annual Percentage Change in Value Commercial Real Estate, 1985-2010

9. Average Annual Percentage Change in ValueIndustrial Real Estate, 1985-2010

10. Cuyahoga County is Getting Old Old obsolete real estate, outdated schools, worn-out recreation facilities, abandoned buildings, leaking water lines, dying trees, broken curbs and sidewalks. In 40 years half the homes in Cuyahoga County will be at least100 years old. Lakewood will reach that point in six years.

11. Cuyahoga is Losing Middle- and Upper-Income Residents 80% of suburban residents move outward to buy their next home, half to an adjacent county. Most moves are to new/newer. Those who prefer inner locations have little choice. More move out of county than in resulting in population loss and spreading decline.

12. Cuyahogas Losses to Adjacent Counties 2004-2009 InOutNet Households33,00048,000-15,000 Persons51,00087,000-36,000 Income$1.28 b$2.38 b-$1.1 b 36,000 equals a Westlake – in five years

14. Percent of Countys Land in Townships Geauga96% Medina90 Portage86 Lorain70 Lake53 Summit35 Cuyahoga 2

15. Population Change 1985-2010 Cuyahoga County -175,000 Adjacent counties +258,000

16. If Adjacent Counties Add 258,000 Residents in Next 25 Years, It Will Mean 100,000 more households 200,000 more cars (+ service vehicles) 175,000 new homes (7,000/year) 350,000 acres used (550 sq miles)

17. If Cuyahoga County Loses 175,000 Residents In Next 25 Years, It Will Mean 75,000 homes abandoned $1.5 b property value lost ($20,000/unit) $5 b income lost Clevelands population below 300,000

18. The Wrong Road Cuyahoga is on the road to shrinking tax base, higher taxes, reduced bond rating – while neighboring counties continue to grow. The region is on the road to more disunity.

19. The Turning Point: From Building Out to Rebuilding In Renewal and redevelopment of Cuyahogas old core – Cleveland and inner suburbs – must become a central priority. Theres no other way to build tax base. Good things are happening but not enough.

20. Renewal and Redevelopment Have Been Slight – Why? The economy. Complications and costs that dont occur in green field projects – such as demolition, site assembly, environmental cleanup.

21. Deal Closed on Multi-Million-Dollar Clifton Pointe Project in Lakewood Demolition of three Sloan Avenue homes, construction of 17 luxury townhomes set to begin this winter

22. Clevelands New Uptown in University Circle

24. Why Have Renewal and Redevelopment Been Slight? Our current system of government is not oriented to promote it. Policy is stacked in favor of green field development – thats growth; redevelopment is replacement.

26. Why Have Renewal and Redevelopment Been Slight? Home rule is taken to mean Its your problem, you fix it -- fix obsolete real estate, outdated schools, worn-out recreation facilities, abandoned buildings, leaking water lines, dying trees, broken curbs and sidewalks.

28. Catch 22 You fix it – Old places need tax revenues to drive renewal and redevelopment but their tax bases are inadequate because of lack of R&R. Its a Catch 22 in home rule. Raising taxes worsens the predicament.

29. DIY Wont Work Most places cant fix it; the load is too much, even with the best of leadership. They need partners, policies and plans that make R&R a central priority in the county, region, state.

30. Ways Forward: Un-stacking the Deck

31. Cuyahoga County Main issue is Were built out – use it as rationale for action. We've reached a natural and inevitable point in our evolution where, for the sake of our tax base and the well-being of all our communities, we must focus on renewal and redevelopment of our inner suburbs and Cleveland.

32. Cuyahoga County 59 jurisdictions and county government: consider the next 25 years, lock arms and do it. Give people reason to think that domino-like decline is not inevitable.

33. Cuyahoga County Reduce annual move-outs by 3,000 (would balance in and out). Increase annual share of regions new housing from 20% to 50% (3,000 more units). Maximize land bank and site preparation. Pool resources and target on R&R. Establish incentives to locate in core. Gain stability, attractiveness, growth.

34. The Region Produce a multi-county plan to balance old and new, in and out across Northeast Ohio Northeast Ohio Sustainable Communities Consortium working on 12-county plan. www.neoscc.org www.neoscc.org Regional Prosperity Initiative advocating resource gain sharing to foster cooperative planning and development. www.neo-rpi.org www.neo-rpi.org

35. The State Make investments according to county and regional plans. Change system of local taxes (income and real estate) as it fuels decline and sprawl.

36. Cuyahoga County After 200 years a Turning Point, from Building Out to Rebuilding In Major turning points are rare, but when one occurs the new direction opens new opportunity. There is opportunity. Its our problem, well fix it.

37. Postscript: Cultural Comparison Scottish government: Regeneration is the holistic process of reversing the economic, physical and social decline of places where market forces alone wont suffice. Achieving a Sustainable Future: Regeneration Strategy, 2011.