1. Housing Futures Housing Supply John Stewart HBF Director of Economic Affairs 17 July 2007

2. Housing Futures Housing Supply 1. Plan-led System 2. Housing Land Supply 3. Housing Target 4. What is to be done?

3. 1. Plan-led System

4. Housing under-supply inevitable in plan- led system in market economy Politics Site drop outs Windfalls/brownfield

5. 2. Housing Land Supply

6. Delivery Market Based Housing delivery depends on: Land market – competitive price setting Developer profitability (margin, ROCE) Housing market – developers price takers Supplemented by social house building (but >50% Affordable Housing via S106)

7. Sources of Increased Delivery Three components of net additions: New homes (~90%) More land with planning permission and/or Higher densities More conversions Net of demolitions

12. Land Banking House builder land banking – a myth, beyond operational requirements (Barkers conclusion) Large stock of outstanding permissions?

13. Land Banking HBF survey of 21 large house builders 5.1 years land in pipeline, of which: 47% (2.4 years) implementable permission (of which 97% started within 3 months) 36% allocated or outline consent 17% not allocated & no consent

14. 3. Housing Target

15. Housing Target: England 240,000 net additions per year by 2016 3 million additional homes by 2020 New homes: quality, zero-carbon by 2016 Household growth: 223,000 pa 2004-26

22. Assumes: 185,000 net additions in 2007, 240,000 in 2016, 3 million by 2020, 25,000 pa conversions-demolitions

23. 4. What is to be done?

24. What is to be done? Step-change in implementable residential planning permissions 160,000 @ 40 per ha => 4000 ha 215,000 @ 40 per ha => 5375 ha (+34%) 215,000 @ 35 per ha => 6143 ha (+54%) 215,000 @ 30 per ha => 7167 ha (+79%) Assumes: constant average site size; 25,000 pa conversions less demolitions

25. Central Government Policy, guidance, systems adequate Monitor system and outcomes Enforce/intervene – e.g. curb LA interpretation& avoidance of proper process Adequate infrastructure funding & delivery Communities England role? Let markets work!

26. Regional Government Set adequate RSS housing targets Increase targets to hit 240,000 pa – early priority Cascade adequate targets down to LAs Regional Assembly role to be curbed? RDA role to be increased, RES driving?

28. Local Authorities Accelerate LDD preparation Set key policies in LDDs, not SPDs SHLAAs* critical to delivery Realistic brownfield and greenfield assumptions Curb excessive cost demands on land values Want to make it happen! *Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments

29. Industry House building, supply, energy, finance industries: Skills and training Construction methods, innovation, delivery chain Materials and products (incl. Zero Carbon) Local renewable energy provision Finance House building industry capacity expand New home quality (design, product, satisfaction)

30. Housing Futures Housing Supply John Stewart HBF Director of Economic Affairs 17 July 2007