2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS INDIA PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. INDIA

4. NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES POWER BLACKOUTS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

5. Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTHQUAKES

6. EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS

7. CAUSE OF SEISMICITY The interaction of the Indo- Australia and Eurasia plates is the main causative factor for the seismicity of India.

8. PLATE TECTONICS

9. INDIA’S SEISMICITY

10. INDIA:GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

11. TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

12. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (the potential disaster agents) SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

13. EXPOSURE MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

14. VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM

15. VULNERABILITY IS THE ULTIMATE CAUSE OF RISK

16. UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME VVIVIIVIIIIX 3530 25 20 15 10 5 0 MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

17. An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or policies that change its resistance to ground shaking

18. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

19. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH INDIA’S COMMUNITIES

20. THE GUJARAT, INDIA EARTHQUAKE DISASTER JANUARY 26, 2001

21. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

23. AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE 400 KM FROM PLATE BOUNDARY-- “A SURPRISE”

24. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 7.7 JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51 st Republic Day) MAGNITUDE 7.7 JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51 st Republic Day) 20,000 DEAD 167,000 INJURED 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED 600,000 HOMELESS 20,000 DEAD 167,000 INJURED 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED 600,000 HOMELESS

25. STRICKEN URBAN CENTERS BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter Devastated BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter Devastated AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION) 50 multi-story buildings collapsed AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION) 50 multi-story buildings collapsed

26. ESTIMATED LOSS: $5.5 BILLION Over 1 million structures damaged or destroyed.

27. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

30. SEARCH AND RESCUE

31. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

34. HOMELESS: GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

36. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

37. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD

38. The impacted area was re- equipped with all the basic facilities along with state-of-the- art upgrades; Bhuj, for examples, now has a better hospital, town and first-aid center

39. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

40. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

41. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

42. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

43. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

44. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

45. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

46. THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

47. POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE EARTH- QUAKES EXPECTED LOSS

48. INDIA’SCOMMUNITIESINDIA’SCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS QUAKE HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

49. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

52. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY AND UNLIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

53. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

54. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

55. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE