1. The Local Stakeholders Perspective – a balance from the last 10 year of expansion Andreia Marques Postal - UNICAMP Luiz De Souza, UNICAMP José Maria Silveira Jardim UNICAMP Patricia Osseweijer,, Technology University of Delft

2. Objective and question  Objective:  Ten years after the sugarcane arrival: local perceptions of achievements and damages on the five large expanding areas. (on progress project )  Question:  How the stakeholders of communities close to new ethanol plants perceive the negative impacts of the sugarcane arrival and how they see the benefits of them.

3. Methodology  Literature review captures the main questions of the international scenario;  Data analysis defines the main expanding regions and their economic profile;  Interviews with local community – govern, urban entrepreneurs, sugarcane producers, labourers, community leaders and other crop growers.

4. Main arguments against biofuels on international aena  Environmental issues are the most critical;  Water scarcity;  Biodiversity  Deforestation  ILUC (indirect land use change)  Humanitarian/ social issues  Food vs fuel;  Displacement of traditional communities;  Conditions of rural workers (similar to slavery);  Economic issues  High subsidy dependence  Land and income concentration

5. Expansion Areas after 2006

6. After São Paulo, Goiás and Minas Gerais have the 2 larger expanding areas

7. Expansion Areas after 2006 Southwest Goiás Minas Gerais – (west – Minas triangle)

8. Estado Região Agrícola 2003200620082013 Variaç ão 03_08 Variaçã o 08_13 Variaç ão 03_13 GO Goiatuba 6.4864.7207.56018.00017%138%178% Rio Verde e Mineiros 9.4196.2188.23626.000-13%216%176% Sta Helena de Goiás 8.8205.1808.06720.667-9%156%134% MS Dourados 7.0415.4469.06015.83329%75%125% Rio Brilhante 6.4775.9509.25719.33343%109%198% Chapadão do Sul 9.9037.7248.94025.667-10%187%159% MG Ituiutaba 4.8815.0466.25013.33328%113%173% Uberlândia 4.8266.2578.51715.00076% 211% Uberaba 5.0147.0118.64618.33372%112%266% PR Maringá 8.37113.1649.55221.53314%125%157% Paranavaí 7.95010.9609.14216.16715%77%103% Umuarama 5.3107.4118.50013.00060%53%145% SP Araçatuba 6.12211.56010.98417.50079%59%186% Piracicaba 10.46813.23820.49542.00096%105%301% Ribeirão Preto 15.51820.79420.38834.66731%70%123% S.J. Rio Preto 9.76913.94017.91323.50083%31%141% Average Nominal Prices of Lands (reais/hectare)

9. Interviews (profile) How old? How long do they live in the region? Rural or Urban? Different stakeholders What is his income level? Level of Education

10. Interviews (profile)

11. Social Issues  Food VS fuel – it is not a concern for that population at all. Most of the crops considered food for them (rice and beans) use to come from other regions of the country since long time ago.  Working conditions –sugarcane bring benefits for for the sugarcane plantation employees but also for other rural workers who had a better bargain power due the scarcity of manpower in the region when the ethanol plant arrived.  Land concentration is not a big issue due the horizontal arrangements.

12. Environmental Issues  Deforestation – Perception of huge amount of deforestation mainly in pasture land areas.  Deforestation of isolated trees in entropized areas to mechanize the plantation and harvest process.  All that wood was to be buried  Soil Quality – The perception about this aspect vary depend on what as the previous use of the land. Good for pastureland, bad for soy and corn.  Water – Water is a well manage resource in sugarcane plantations mainly because of good practice on soil management which help to avoid the runoff and other types of water contamination. But monoculture let the weather drier impacting the volume of rain in the region.

13. Economic Issues  Increase in the level of income – A consensus but the impact on the income level varies depend on the previous economic activity.  Goias- compete with soy bean complex - diversification  Minas Gerais s - the culture went over the degraded pastureland - the new economic redemption  Business model to access the sugarcane: the horizontal arrangement seems to be predominantly. It implies less concentration of land and income than traditional model (vertical integration).  Tax collection - The expected large increase in municipal taxes did not happen in all cities because of the WAIVERS originally negotiated by many companies and also cause some service payment mechanisms used to avoid taxation.

14. MCA Analysis n=92 Source: authors

15. Conclusions  The positive impacts in the economic and social field were strong enough to prevail over the negative impacts on the environmental dimension where the alignment between local stakeholders was not so intense.  The extension and/or intensity of environmental aspect are the less understood ones by local community.

16. Further Topics to be investigated  Confirm the perceptions in other expansion areas;  Understand what critics comes from the culture itself, what comes from bad management;  Go deeper in some issues common in all areas using new round of interviews and panel methods;  Identify the main politics and technologies priorities in order to address the bad impacts of the process.

17. Thank you! Andreia Marques Instituto de Economia - Unicamp - Brasil andreiamarquesp@gmail.com