Immigration Data Users Seminar Audrey Singer POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU & MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE SEMINAR October 16, 2008

Immigration Data at the Sub-national Level Where can I find data on immigrants for cities, counties and metro areas? Is it easy to get? Is it safe to use? What are the cautions?

Sources of Sub-national Immigration Data DHS Office of Immigration Statistics: Flow data Local Area Data: local governments, school districts, community organizations Census: Decennial, ACS, Pop Estimates

Why use state and local data on immigrants? Immigrants are more geographically spread out than ever before Immigrants are settling in smaller areas Many local areas need data for decision- making

Immigrants living in top 100 metros – 84% Remainder – 5% Immigrants living in top 100 counties – 70% Immigrants living in top 100 cities – 33% The majority of U.S. immigrants live in US metropolitan areas: 84% in the nation’s 100 largest metro areas All immigrants – 100% Immigrants living in all metro areas – 95%

Brookings Census Plus Data Tool SPONSORED BY LIVING CITIES Provides access to demographic, social, economic, and housing data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau Provides comparative rankings through 2006 on over 100 key indicators for the 100 largest U.S. cities, counties, and metro areas, and all 50 states Can view and download data, compare rankings, across multiple indicators

Immigration Data on Census Plus 11 variables Foreign-born population share, 2006 Percent change in foreign-born population, Share of foreign-born population who are naturalized citizens, 2006 Share of foreign-born population entering U.S. in 1990s, 2006 Share of foreign-born population entering U.S. since 2000, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from Mexico and Central America, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from South America, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from Europe, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from Asia, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from Africa, 2006 Share of foreign-born population from Caribbean, 2006

Finding immigration data on Census Plus

Cautions with using sub-national data You can’t always get what you want Sample size of the ACS, margins of error, confidentiality But if you try, sometimes, you get what you need

How the media uses statistical significance Poll Finds Obama Gaining Support and McCain Weakened in Bailout Crisis By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MEGAN THEE NEW YORK TIMES Published: October 1, 2008 The CBS News poll showed that Mr. Obama had a nine-percentage- point lead over Mr. McCain — 49 percent to 40 percent. It is the first time Mr. Obama has held a statistically significant lead over Mr. McCain this year in polls conducted by CBS or joint polls by CBS and The Times. SAFE

How the media fails to use statistical significance “Two Northern Virginia counties that took highly publicized stances against illegal immigration saw their number of foreign-born residents decline last year, while one of their neighbors saw its immigration population go up.” In fact, Loudoun and Prince William’s immigrant population change was not statistically significant. [Fairfax’s increase (6%) was significant, but so was Arlington’s (13%), which was not mentioned in the article.] UNSAFE

How fact tanks use statistical significance Trends in Unauthorized Immigration: Undocumented Inflow Now Trails Legal Inflow By JEFFREY S. PASSEL and D’VERA COHN PEW HISPANIC CENTER Published: October 2, 2008 There were 11.9 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in March, 2008….The size of the unauthorized population appears to have declined since 2007, but this finding is inconclusive because of the margin of error in these estimates. SAFE

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